Poverty,Preference or Pensioners? Measuring Material Deprivation in the UK*

Indicators of material deprivation are typically based on a two-part question, asking, first, whether respondents possess a series of deprivation items and, second – if they do not – whether this is because of a lack of resources or is by choice. This second subquestion, or ‘enforced lack’ criterion, is ubiquitous but its efficacy has been questioned by a number of authors. In an important critique published in Fiscal Studies, McKay (2004) claimed that older people were more likely than younger respondents to report that they did not want the items they lacked, despite their lower incomes, and also that the enforced lack criterion introduced a subjectivity which, in effect, required respondents to feel poor in order to be classified as such. This critique has potentially profound implications for poverty measurement. In this paper, we seek to address the question of whether, if we are to employ indicators of material deprivation for poverty measurement, we should include the enforced lack criterion or not. In seeking to answer this question, we draw on data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and present tests of reliability and validity on indices of material deprivation, with and without the enforced lack criterion. Using odds ratio and analysis of variance methods, we find that the inclusion of the enforced lack criterion provides a measure of material deprivation which is both more reliable, and more valid based on a subjective measure of deprivation as well as on a majority of more objective forms of deprivation. Amongst the remaining minority (ill health for both methods and income quintile for the analysis of variance method), the divergent results can be explained, at least in part, by the older age profile of respondents in poor health and on low incomes. Thus, while there are legitimate concerns about the performance of such deprivation indicators amongst certain subgroups – in particular, amongst older people – on aggregate the enforced lack criterion helps to distinguish between poverty and preference.     

THE NATURAL RATE: AN ATTRACTOR FOR ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT,OR AN ATTRACTEE?

This article reviews the contributions of Richard Layard, Stephen Nickell and Richard Jackman, The Unemployment Crisis, Oxford U.P., 1994; and Edmund S. Phelps, Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Assets, Harvard U.P. 1994 to the literature on the determinants of the equilibrium rate of unemployment. The key issue is whether the doctrine of monetary neutrality, which is the hallmark of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis investigated in the two volumes under review, is tenable with regard to equilibrium unemployment. The conclusion is that the influence of actual on equilibrium unemployment violates the neutrality axiom, and that the natural rate is as much an attractee as attractor for actual unemployment.     

Trade with Asia and skill upgrading: Effects on labor markets in the older industrial countries

Trade with Asia and Skill Upgrading: Effects on Factor Markets in the Older Industrial Countries. — The trade and labor nexus is examined with a model incorporating refinements which weaken the H-O-S result that free trade can cause factor rewards to equalize. Asian growth and rising openness in the period 1970–1992, taken in isolation, are found to cause real wages to rise there, even for production workers. Although they also cause increased wage dispersion, the magnitude is small compared with the effects of skill upgrading. Projections to 2010, which combine further expansion in imports from Asia with continued Northern skill upgrading, yield declining real wages and/or unemployment for both production and farm workers. Restricting imports from Asia is found to be an ineffective response.     

Globalisation and factor returns in competitive markets

The standard competitive trade model, extended to include many goods and factors, is used to analyze the effect of goods and factor market integration on average international disparities in the real returns of internationally immobile factors. It is shown that goods market integration decreases international real return differentials for all factors. We derive sufficient conditions for this result to hold for the subgroup of internationally immobile factors as well. While there is a presumption for similar results to hold with international factor market integration, we show that this is true for international migration but in general not for international investment.     

Economic effects of rules of origin

Economic Effects of Rules of Origin. — Rules of origin exist because governments wish to discriminate amongst products on the basis of their “country of origin”. Since the components and activities that make up the total value added of many products are not created in a single location, rules to define a unique geographical source for products must be somewhat arbitrary, and inevitably introduce distortions into production and trade patterns as producers seek to provide their products with the most favourable origin. This paper considers the structure of such rules and their economic consequences.     

Patterns in UK company innovation styles: New evidence from the CBI innovation trends survey

This paper reports on the results of an analysis at Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC) of the data from the 1996 and 1997 Survey of Innovation Trends conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in conjunction with the NatWest Bank in the UK. This is one of the few, direct surveys of innovation activity, as opposed to R&D and patenting actvity, which is conducted in the UK It is characterized by the fact that it asks responding firms to report on trends in a wide variety of aspects of their innovative behaviour. The central feature of the analysis in this paper is a factor analysis of the answers to a set of 15 questions on different aspects of innovative behaviour. This results in a three-factor solution which reveals three distinct 'styles' of innovation in the behaviour of respondents. These three styles are shown to be broadly applicable to both manufacturing industry firms and service industry firms in the sample, thus revealing a dimension of innovation in the service sector which is not so readily disclosed by analysis of R&D or patent statistics. Statistical modelling of the constraints and incentives influencing innovation shows that while constraints do not appear to be very significant, competitive pressure and the utilization of collaborative linkages are strongly positively associated with innovation, and especially with a more radical s o b of innovation. Ihe paper concludes that the CBI survey provides data about innovation in the UK which are not easily provided through other means. Its format allows certain aspects of innovation—particularly the similarities and differences between manufacturing and services —to be examined in an interesting way.     

Trade Liberalization and Technology Choice

This paper considers the links between trade liberalization and technology choice in the nonliberalizing country. Trade‐liberalization‐induced changes in relative product prices have direct effects on equilibrium relative factor returns. The consequent changes in relative input costs may also lead producers to switch to alternative technologies, which will in turn induce a further indirect change in relative factor returns. Will this indirect affect exacerbate or ameliorate the direct effect on relative factor returns? It is found that this depends on the relative cost savings across sectors and factor cost shares.     

The Asian Crisis and Economic Change in China

During the Asian crisis, China's healthy reserves and low debt helped avoid a "country run", yet China did experience an apparently autonomous rise in private savings, a rise in capital outflow and a slowdown in growth. We employ global general equilibrium analysis to examine the relative contributions of external and internal shocks in China during the crisis. The savings rise appears to have been dominant domestically and, by coincidence, was a significant contributor to the international effects of the crisis. The successful defence of fixed US$ parity, however, made the combined shocks more contractionary than if the exchange rate regime had been more flexible. JEL Classification Numbers: C68, E65, F41, O11.