Weshalb konjunkturprognostiker regelmäßig den wetterbericht studieren sollten

Certainly, economic activity is infl uenced by weather conditions. In short term economic forecast, normal weather fl uctuations over the year are covered by using seasonally adjusted fi gures. However, they are calculated by time series methods and do not take into account specifi c weather conditions such as unusually mild or cold winters. In particular in the fi rst quarter of a year, it is often diffi cult to identify whether short term shifts in economic activity are due to cyclical reasons ore merely refl ect specifi c weather conditions. The paper shows that this uncertainty leads to biased forecast. After mild winters forecasts of GDP and investment in construction tend to be over optimistic whereas they are too pessimistic after atypically cold winters.     

Delegation and dynamic incentives

Using an agency model, we show how delegation, by generating additional private information, improves dynamic incentives under limited commitment. It circumvents ratchet effects and facilitates the revelation of persistent private information through two effects: a play‐hardball effect, which mitigates an efficient agent's ratchet incentive, and a carrot effect which reduces an inefficient agent's take‐the‐money‐and‐run incentive. Although delegation entails a loss of control, it is optimal when uncertainty about operational efficiency is large. Moreover, delegation is more effective with production complementarity. We also consider different modes of commitment to yield insights into optimal organizational boundaries.     

Experiential Marketing and Long-Term Sales

This study investigates the ability of winery tasting rooms to create brand awareness and build long-term brand loyalty. Specifically, we test the conjecture that if tasting rooms create brand awareness and a pleasurable tasting room experience, then those visitors are more likely to recognize and seek out those brands once they leave the tasting room. To measure these effects, we exploit differences in tasting room characteristics to conduct a series of natural experiments from which we analyze differences in off-premise retail sales away from the tasting room. We use scan data on wine sold off-premise through traditional retail outlets to then test for differences among tasting room characteristics. Our results indicate that tasting rooms act as a form of experiential marketing for wineries, creating brand awareness and generating greater growth in off-premise retail sales. Finally, we address issues of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity as potential sources of bias.     

Uncertainty in Prerelease Advertising

Firms frequently advertise products and services before they are launched. Yet how to best design such advertisements is not well understood. The current article investigates how consumers respond to uncertainty in prerelease advertisements. Across five studies, including both field and lab studies, we first provide evidence for the positive effect of uncertain prerelease advertisements using real consumer behavior on Facebook and YouTube and at the box office. Next, we uncover the mechanism underlying this effect (i.e., inflated outcome expectancies), outline a managerially relevant boundary condition (i.e., the positive effect reverses when a preorder opportunity is offered), and demonstrate that the effect of uncertainty on consumer response differs in prerelease versus postrelease advertisements depending on consumers’ perceived risk. Finally, we discuss implications for marketing research as well as for the design of prerelease advertisements for stimulating prerelease buzz and word of mouth.     

Political feasibility of structural adjustment in africa: an application of SAM mixed multipliers

The implementation of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) has often been undermined by opposition from politically powerful groups who are favored by existing policies. To assess the political sustainability of SAPs this paper uses social accounting matrices for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized SAPs on different socioeconomic groups. The analysis reveals wide variation in the likelihood for typical SAPs to be acceptable to political elites while generating growth in the rest of the economy. The presence of a rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages can enhance the political sustainability of SAPs.     

COMMENT ON THE 2010 WINCOTT LECTURE, ‘EUROPE: HOW CAN THINGS GET BETTER?’

The increasing centralisation of government at European Union level is eroding individual freedom. Greater EU regulation of financial markets, as advocated by Charlie McCreevy, represents a further threat to liberty, while the measures advocated would have been ineffective at preventing the current financial crisis.     

The role of perceived organizational justice in shaping the outcomes of talent management: A research agenda

Talent management is in need of a theoretical foundation and empirical research at the level of the individual. To address these gaps, the current paper relies on the literature on workforce differentiation and provides a research agenda by introducing perceived organizational justice as a key mediator between talent management practices and differential employee reactions. We discuss employees' varying reactions to talent management on one hand and their underlying perceptions of organizational justice, on the other hand. In particular, we propose that, amongst others, an employee's high potential status serves as an antecedent for different distributive justice perceptions, while procedural interventions and relationship building can provide organizational latitude in shaping employee reactions to talent management. Research methods, challenges, and practical implications are discussed.     

America's Engagement in Iraq: Insights and implications for public management research

Abstract

There are lessons to be learned in the matter of public management in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially in the importance of the management cultures in which decisions are made. This review is of four books, by different authors, sharing their journalist approach. Four shared themes emerge from these works: the importance of training, organizational culture, strategy, and governance. The authors develop an awareness of the inter-connectivity of the leadership and management cultures of the military and civilians, with significant implications for future public management research. Each of the four books in this review offers contributions that extend the knowledge and practice of public management and public policy, providing hard-learned lessons that can be cross walked into teaching, practice, and research.