Short and long-term interactions between venture capital returns and the macroeconomy: evidence for the United States

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically model the influence of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of risk capital in the US. We start our investigation using a static long-run equilibrium model. In contrast to previous studies, we analyze the effect of several factors simultaneously within the framework of a vector error correction model (VECM). This allows us to study short- and long-term interactions to overcome the problem of endogeneity, and to discover causal mechanisms. The results show that the value of venture capital investments is positively related to industrial production, the exit channel Nasdaq, and the long-term interest rate. However, the value of venture capital investments is negatively related to the short-term interest rate. According to the short-term dynamics, VEC Granger causality confirms that only industrial production influences venture capital performance, while venture capital returns Granger causes Nasdaq performance.     

LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION

The current financial crisis has arisen as a result of entrepreneurial and business error rather than because of inappropriate incentives within the private sector. However, government failure has exacerbated the problem. The case for responding to government failure by greater international co-ordination of banking regulation is weak. The IMF is particularly ill-suited for this job.     

The constitutional future of the European Union

The formal distinction between a treaty and a constitution is much less important than the question of who is authorized to interpret and amend it. The judges of the European Court of Justice interpret the Treaty by simple majority, while unanimity of the member-states would be required to reverse these decisions. The European Union needs a Court whose judges are empanelled from, and selected by, the highest courts of the member-states. The Treaty on European Union violates three fundamental constitutional principles: (i) the principle of the separation of powers, (ii) the democratic principle, and (iii) the principle of subsidiarity.     

Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model—Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.     

Tariff rate quotas and the economic impact of agricultural trade liberalization in the world trade organization

Since their implementation at the Uruguay Round, tariff rate quotas (TRQs) have become a widely used instrument of trade policy in agricultural trade. With almost 1,300 TRQs scheduled at the World Trade Organization, this paper will examine their economic effects more closely. First, the theoretical background of TRQs is examined. Then, a short overview of the Uruguay Round and their institutional background is given. We demonstrate that official statistics, which do not count TRQs as nontariff barriers, are at least highly misleading. Very often, their effects are the same as those of regular quotas, including redistributive effects. The prominent example of the European banana regime is used to illustrate all of these points.A first draft of this paper was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany. The results are part of the research project "The Influence of the Institutional Design on the Actual Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization after GATT." Financial support by Volkswagen Stiftung is gratefully acknowledged.     

Negative externalities on property values resulting from water impairment: The case of the Pigeon River Watershed

The objective of this research was to determine whether willingness to bear the negative externality from water quality impairment differs between those who do and those who do not receive economic benefit from the impairment source. Differences were tested using a hedonic analysis of ambient water quality in two discrete housing markets in the Pigeon River Watershed, which have been polluted by the operation of a paper mill. The results suggest that North Carolina residents residing in subwatersheds with impaired portions of the Pigeon River, who experience economic benefit from the paper mill in addition to its harmful effects on water quality, do perceive the pollution as a negative externality. In contrast, the effects of both the degraded river and its contributing streams on property values are perceived as negative externalities by watershed residents in Tennessee who experience only harmful effects from the pollution. Differences in willingness to bear the water-impairment externality were not indicated by variables representing view of and proximity to impaired water bodies. The results suggest that the perception of water quality to which property owners implicitly apply value should be considered when establishing water-quality regulations.     

Sustainability and consumption

We consider the implications of the three pillars of sustainability (environment, economy and social justice) on consumption in a wealthy country. Building a theoretical model that includes consumers, business, government, the environment, and economic and political relations between nations, we explore how sustainability should affect the consumption behavior of consumers, charitable aid to poorer countries, and responsible environmental practices by businesses. Our model enables us to provide normative implications for consumers, society and business. Importantly, we assume that all stakeholders will optimize their self-interest, and that altruism will only partly explain behavior consistent with sustainability. Among the more non-obvious findings are that (1) the poorer the poor countries are, the less the rich countries should consume, (2) the more sensitive the global political climate is to economic inequity between the rich and poor nations, the less the rich countries should consume, and (3) if aid to poor countries is effective enough, then the more materialistic the society is, the more charitable aid it should give. We also confirm a number of more intuitive findings, such as that business should use more green technology as the taxes on pollution and/or efficiency of green technology increase, and the more resource-intensive consumption is, the less consumers should consume. Taken as a whole, the findings imply that societal consumption patterns should be sensitive to aspects of environmental impact and social justice, even if altruistic motivations are absent.     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.