Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview

This paper is an expository introduction to several topics of current research in the general equilibrium theory of rational expectations. More specifically, we discuss the existence of exact and approximate rational expectations equilibria, the implementation of equilibria, the behavior of learning and smoothing processes by which traders construct expectations from repeated observations of the market, and the lagged use of the information revealed by prices in an intertemporal sequence of markets. The purpose of this discussion is to introduce papers on these topics appearing in the Journal of Economic Theory Symposium on Rational Expectations in Microeconomic Models.     

Some Determinants of Property Crime: Economic Factors Influence Criminal Behavior But Cannot Completely Explain the Syndrome

Abstract . An empirical analysis of the property crimes, robbery, burglary and larceny, is presented for all 120 counties in Kentucky. While this analysis is based on an economic model of crime, certain sociological and legal variables are included as well in the system of equations. Overall, the empirical results support prior studies’findings with the exception that a quadratic relationship is found to exist between urbanization and each of the property crimes. Furthermore, neither the economic nor the non economic influences measured appear more important for affecting crime rates. Specifically, results indicate that the level of poverty, the degree of tourism, the presence of police, the unemployment rate and the apprehension rate all affect property crimes. In contrast, the length of sentence, the degree of industrialization, the level of public assistance payments and the proportion of youth in the county have no affect on property crime rates in these areas.     

Limit-pricing as Bertrand equilibrium

Summary. We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with increasing returns to scale where one of the firms have a cost advantage and prices vary over a grid. We find that typically more than one equilibria exist. However, there are only two perfect equilibria. Moreover, as the size of the grid becomes small, both these equilibria converge to the limit-pricing outcome. Received: February 25, 2000; revised version: January 9, 2001     

CGE assumptions under scrutiny: uncertainty in the ethanol promotion policy in Mexico

Based on a CGE exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in Mexico, we use Monte Carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates. The analysis provides three conclusions: when markets vary smoothly and predictably, Monte Carlo methods can then help to gauge the actual probability that a given program will achieve a desired outcome. Second, secondary markets may display little or no sensitivity to these parameter variations. Finally, a ‘razor’s edge’ outcome with no positive benefits if a critical parameter falls below some critical value, reveals that an economic policy may not be conducive to ‘fine tuning’ by marginal adjustments.     

When an executive defects

The news that one of the company's senior managers is leaving comes as a complete surprise to Paul Simmonds, CEO of Kinsington Textiles, Inc. Ned Carpenter, KTI's vice president of operations for three years, writes in his resignation letter than he is leaving for a better opportunity. Simmonds soon learns that Carpenter's new job is at Daltex, one of KTI's main rivals in the intensely competitive carpet industry. Hiring Carpenter had helped Simmonds establish his reputation as a topnotch manager. Carpenter came to KTI with lots of ideas and put his enthusiasm to good use. Three years into a five-year change program, Carpenter had turned KTI's operations from one of the worst in the industry to one of the best. He also had helped develop and plan the upcoming launch of a new fiber coating--KTI's first breakthrough in years. In this fictitious case study, Simmonds, along with the company's counsel and vice president of human resources, must figure out how much and what sort of damage control they need. What are they going to tell the company's employees and the media? Should they immediately replace Carpenter with John Brady, the second-in-command of operations? What if Carpenter is taking KTI employees--and strategic information--with him to Daltex? Should Simmonds ask all his managers to sign noncompete agreements-something Carpenter was never asked to do? Should KTI sue Carpenter? Five experts offer advice about communicating with KTI's employees, the media, and Carpenter himself, and about protecting the company's confidential information.     

Building more business with industrial direct mail advertising

One of the most effective tools of promotion in industrial markets, though often misused and little understood, is the proper use of direct mail. This article focuses upon the major considerations, with numerous examples, for planning and executing different direct mail programs.     

The Evidence on Product-Market Diversifying Acquisitions and Joint Ventures by U.S. Banks

We examine the acquisition and joint venture strategies of U.S. banks from 1980 to 1998 to diversify into non-banking sectors. We find that the market responds favorably to both types of expansions, with the gains being shared between acquiring banks and their targets and venture banks and their non-bank partners, respectively. Acquisitions expose acquiring banks to significant increases in nonsystematic, market, and total risk, while joint ventures result in significant decreases in the nonsystematic and total risk measures for participating banks. Our results suggest that product-market expansions, in general, provide U.S. banks with value-enhancing opportunities, and that joint ventures may improve both the return and risk characteristics of the partner banks.