Dynamics of money, output and price interaction — some Indian evidence

The present study is an attempt to model the dynamic interactions between money, output and prices in a structural vector autoregression framework. The primary concern of the paper is to examine the sources of variations and response of one variable to changes in others in a system of economic variables in the Indian context. Using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 1990Q4, we find that structural factors, in addition to monetary factors, play an important role in generating and sustaining the process of inflation and fluctuations in economic activity. An increase in money/credit supply is found to increase output and prices in the short-run and prices in the long-run, while a non-accommodating monetary policy is ineffective in controlling inflation even at the cost of substantial output losses, thereby indicating relative rigidities in price movements. Another interesting finding is that the monetary authority responds differently to different price shocks, exercising its leverage in altering the quantity as well as the composition of aggregate money supply. Our findings also indicate that the economy is characterized by relatively large and infrequent shocks to ‘price/cost’-related factors. Finally, our analysis suggests that a simple monetary targeting without adequate ‘supply side’ measures may not be able to serve the objective of maintaining growth with price stability.     

Relative Performance Incentives and Price Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

We study experimental markets in which participants face incentives modeled upon those prevailing in markets for managed funds. Each participant's portfolio is periodically evaluated at market value and ranked by relative performance as measured by short‐term paper returns. Those who rank highly attract a larger share of new fund inflows. In an environment in which prices are typically close to intrinsic value, the effect of these incentives is mild. However, in an environment in which markets are prone to bubble, mispricing is greatly exacerbated by relative performance incentives and becomes even more pronounced with experience.     

A review of aggregation techniques for agent-based models: understanding the presence of long-term memory

Quality & Quantity - A key feature of agent-based modeling is the understanding of the macroscopic behavior based on data at the microscopic level. In this respect, financial market models are...     

Intraurban interactions, social structure, and urban government expenditures: A stochastic model

A behavioral model is presented to identify the linkages between urban social structure and urban public expenditure data. The model is then tested on data from the 198 largest U.S. cities using first a principal components analysis to dimension the structural variables and second a regression model to measure the covariation between urban spending and selected measures of urban structure. The results suggest a relevant set of considerations for planning the urban fisc for purposes of State and Federal intergovernmental policy as well as for purposes of urban physical planning.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF SOLO PATROL IN POLICING A LIBERAL SOCIETY: A RESPONSE TO JOHN BLUNDELL

Police deployment strategies have a direct bearing on the general relationship with the public. In this article, the author reviews the research and argues that not only is routine deployment of officers in pairs wasteful of finite resources, it can lead to increased alienation from the public.     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

'THE LAW OF STORMS': EUROPEAN AND INDIGENOUS RESPONSES TO NATURAL DISASTERS IN COLONIAL INDIA, c. 1800–1850

Focusing on collective response to storms and floods in early colonial India, the paper explores obstacles to successful disaster response with one example related to meteorology of cyclones and the other the use of embankments. In both these examples, there was an attempt to build public-private partnerships, which succeeded in the case of weather prediction and failed in river embankment. The failure is explained by two factors. Coordination and contracting were costly when the private partners had variable capacities and interests. Furthermore, whereas meteorology predicted nature, embankments interfered with nature, an intervention which carried social and economic costs.