THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND THE TIME BETWEEN TRADES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Previous studies propose that the time between trades is a measure of the existence of information and a manifestation of the demand and supply of liquidity. I find evidence that the time between trades is a measure of the existence of information. However, the evidence does not imply that liquidity constraints are an unimportant determinant of price changes. Further investigation indicates that price changes are partially related to liquidity constraints, when the liquidity constraint is measured by the availability of multiple counterparties. Finally, I find some evidence that information about trades, not necessarily related to information about the underlying asset, also affects price changes.     

The Effect of Eliminating Direct Payments to Farmers on Land Values

This study looks at the effects of the complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers on the U.S. economy in general and the effect on land values in particular. The analytical approach used consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 14 consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income, and a government. The results suggest that, with a complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers, there will be a reduction in output by all producing sectors of 0.18% or about $14.5 billion, a decline in output in the agricultural sectors of 4.39% or about $12.0 billion, a fall in the consumption of goods and services by about 0.11% or $4.15 billion, a fall in total utility by 0.47% or $22.0 billion, and a net reduction in expenditures for the government of $13.4 billion. Land values will be adversely affected, falling an average of 14%.     

Determinants of small firm debt ratios: An analysis of retail panel data

In this paper, the relevance of some debt ratio determinants from the recent theory of finance is empirically investigated in a small business sector. The data used in this study consist of average financial data of 27 shoptypes in 20 different years, covering a period of 24 years. The panel character of the data facilitates the use of analytical techniques aimed at reducing or avoiding the biasing effect of omitted variables on the outcomes. The main conclusion is, that the theoretical determinants appear indeed to be relevant for the small business sector investigated here, but the influences encountered in the analyses are far less straightforward than the hypothesized effects in the theory. Influences on total debt are frequently found to be the net effects of opposite influences on long and short term debt and some variables show large time and industry specific effects. Further, distinct patterns in the time specific effects were found.     

Views on futures research methodology

Roy Amara identifies new directions for futures research methodology. Emphasis is placed on validation and quality criteria for futures studies, and a set of initial criteria is outlined—plausibility, reproducibility, and explicitness of values and impacts. Such criteria should be guidelines rather than formalistic straightjackets.     

Robustly Hedging Variable Annuities With Guarantees Under Jump and Volatility Risks

Recent variable annuities offer participation in the equity market and attractive protection against downside movements. Accurately quantifying this additional equity market risk and robustly hedging options embedded in the guarantees of variable annuities are new challenges for insurance companies. Due to sensitivities of the benefits to tails of the account value distribution, a simple Black–Scholes model is inadequate in preventing excessive liabilities. A model which realistically describes the real world price dynamics over a long time horizon is essential for the risk management of the variable annuities. In this article, both jump risk and volatility risk are considered for risk management of lookback options embedded in guarantees with a ratchet feature. We evaluate relative performances of delta hedging and dynamic discrete risk minimization hedging strategies. Using the underlying as the hedging instrument, we show that, under a Black–Scholes model, local risk minimization hedging can be significantly better than delta hedging. In addition, we compare risk minimization hedging using the underlying with that of using standard options. We demonstrate that, under a Merton's jump diffusion model, hedging using standard options is superior to hedging using the underlying in terms of the risk reduction. Finally, we consider a market model for volatility risks in which the at‐the‐money implied volatility is a state variable. We compute risk minimization hedging by modeling at‐the‐money Black–Scholes implied volatility explicitly; the hedging effectiveness is evaluated, however, under a joint model for the underlying price and implied volatility. Our computational results suggest that, when implied volatility risk is suitably modeled, risk minimization hedging using standard options, compared to hedging using the underlying, can potentially be more effective in risk reduction under both jump and volatility risks.     

'A Public Expert in Matters of Account': Defining the Chartered Accountant in England and Wales

This study addresses the attempts by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) to set its professional boundaries based on the performance of work in order to create a definition of the specialist chartered accountant or 'public expert in matters of account'. The article, located in the 1880-1900 period, provides an insight into the activities and arenas in which chartered accountants could engage. The complexities associated with this demarcation between permissible and non-permissible activities, revealed through a series of 'test cases', were exacerbated by the 'grandfather clauses' contained in the ICAEW's Royal Charter.     

Discrete hedging of American-type options using local risk minimization

Local risk minimization and total risk minimization discrete hedging have been extensively studied for European options [e.g., Schweizer, M., 1995. Variance-optimal hedging in discrete time. Mathematics of Operation Research 20, 1–32; Schweizer, M., 2001. A guided tour through quadratic hedging approaches. In: Jouini, E., Cvitanic, J., Musiela, M., Option pricing, interest rates and risk management, Cambridge University Press, pp. 538–574]. In practice, hedging of options with American features is more relevant. For example, equity linked variable annuities provide surrender benefits which are essentially embedded American options. In this paper we generalize both quadratic and piecewise linear local risk minimization hedging frameworks to American options. We illustrate that local risk minimization methods outperform delta hedging when the market is highly incomplete. In addition, compared to European options, distributions of the hedging costs are typically more skewed and heavy-tailed. Moreover, in contrast to quadratic local risk minimization, piecewise linear risk minimization hedging strategies can be significantly different, resulting in larger probabilities of small costs but also larger extreme cost.     

A SIMPLIFIED INTEGRATED FORM OF SNA AND MPS*

At present two systems of measurement of national product are in practice, one as defined in the UN System of National Accounts (SNA) and the other termed the Material Product System (MPS) or National Balances for the Economy. In the present paper, an expanded system of accounts integrating the national balances within the framework of a simplified SNA has been suggested. The accounts suggested are mainly the two sets of (i) Supply, Disposition and Domestic Production of goods and services and Consumption Expenditure of Budget and Mixed Organisations and the Population, and (ii) Income and Outlay and Capital Formation Accounts. The system is convenient not only for arriving at estimates by either of the two approaches, but is readily manageable. This set of accounts can, without any effort, be put in the form of a matrix leading to its ultimate integration with either the UN System of National Accounts or a modified system of national balances. The system gives not only the integrated system of SNA and national balances, but also a coded list of transactors and transactions within the economy. This coded list can be used as the first set of information for the creation of the economic data bank for the Integrated Statistical Information System.     

Some indirect impacts of government regulation on industrial innovation in the United States

While government regulation can have an influence in directly shaping the rate and direction of industrial innovation, the most significant impacts are indirect. These latter impacts derive from the regulation formulation and implementation process, inter- and intra-agency ambiguities and from the diversion of cash and R&D manpower resources away from business innovation, all of which add to the uncertainties associated with an already costly and risky process. There is little doubt that high rates of promulgation of regulations in the United States between 1962 and 1978 have created a climate in industry that is generally inimical to high-risk innovation endeavors.