Fiscal Settings and the Steady State Growth Path*

This paper outlines how deficit-neutral fiscal settings, via their impact on the growth/distribution equation, can play a positive role in minimizing deviant macroeconomic performance. The conventional Solow-Swan model of economic growth assigns no role to the standard instruments of fiscal policy in influencing the equilibrium growth path. In the model presented here, government fiscal policy–in the form of tax and transfer rates–is shown to have real effects on the long-term growth path of the unionized macroeconomy, even when the budget is permanently balanced and policy is fully announced.     

A Jump-diffusion Model for Exchange Rates in a Target Zone

We propose a simple jump-diffusion model for an exchange rate target zone. The model captures most stylized facts from the existing target zone models while remaining analytically tractable. The model is based on a modified two-limit version of the C OX , I NGERSOLL and R OSS (1985) model. In the model the exchange rate is kept within the band because the variance decreases as the exchange rate approaches the upper or lower limits of the band. We also consider an extension of the model with parity adjustments, which are modeled as Poisson jumps. Estimation of the model is by GMM based on conditional moments. We derive prices of currency options in our model, assuming that realignment jump risk is idiosyncratic. Throughout, we apply the theory to EMS exchange rate data. We show that, after the EMS crisis of 1993, currencies remain in an implicit target zone which is narrower than the officially announced target zones.     

Roles of Public Capital in Pakistan's Economy: Productivity, Investment and Growth Analysis

This study analyzes the role of public capital in Pakistan's economy, tracing the relationship between productivity of public capital and economic growth. We estimate a production function, with public capital as an inputs. The results indicate that the productivity (output elasticity) of aggregate as well as different components of public capital are sufficiently high. We also analyze substitutability and complementarity between public and private capital by estimating investment functions, revealing that public capital has worked as a substitute for private investment. The net effect of public capital on the national economy is analyzed by estimating reduced forms, with the result that public capital has a positive net effect on national product. The growth analysis shows that the contribution of public capital is declining over time.     

The Long and Bumpy Road to Glass-Steagall Reform: A Historical and Evolutionary Analysis of Banking Legislation

This paper focuses on understanding the role of interest groups and markets in influencing regulatory change. To that end, it first identifies the interest groups surrounding the creation of legislation that separated commercial and investment banking in the 1930s and then identifies the interest groups involved in the more recent attempts to repeal the separation. Careful attention is also given to developments in the private market that affect the legislative process. This then becomes the case study for understanding how interest groups and market developments are able to influence regulatory policy. This particular case study finds that existing orthodox economic and political science literature gives too much credit to interest groups and not enough credit to private market developments when analyzing policy development and reform.     

Meaningful Measures: Indicators on Progress, Progress on Indicators

This article reviews the international debate on statistical indicators. It describes historical backgrounds, as well as the present chaotic situation. It discusses what statistical indicators are and what they are for, as well as criteria for the choice of indicators, designed to monitor the achievement of economic, social, demographic, environmental and other goals set by United Nations conferences. Some suggestions for future work are made.     

Multivariate stable ARMA processes with time dependent coefficients

This paper considers the class of m-variate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes with stable innovations and time dependent coefficients. A set of suitable AR and MA regularity conditions is given to ensure existence and uniqueness of valid solutions. A simple form of the above solution is expressed in terms of one sided Green's matrix functions associated with the AR operator. We solve the prediction problem arising in this class of models. A few examples are added to support the general theory.     

Tests based on φ-divergences for bivariate symmetry

In this paper we introduce a family of test statistics for testing symmetry based on φ-divergence families. These test statistics yield the likelihood ratio test and the Pearson test statistic as special cases. Asymptotic distribution for the new test statistics are derived under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. A simulation study is presented to see that some new test statistics offer an attractive alternative to the classical Pearson test statistic for the problem of symmetry. Received: May 2000     

Asymptotic properties of MLE and UMVUE in one-parameter truncated distributions

Consider one-parameter families of continuous distributions whose range depend on an unknown parameter. In case a single sufficient and complete statistic exists, we obtain the limiting distributions of MLE and UMVUE. Both distributions are different transformations of a standard exponential variable.     

Capitalization and Community Size

Studies often show taxes and public services capitalized into house prices, but no one has tested whether the rate of capitalization depends on community size. The theoretical model of W. H. Hoyt (1999, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 155–171), predicts that capitalization occurs, but that the rate of capitalization is weaker in large communities. Hoyt's model is tested empirically using a house price hedonic framework. The tax capitalization results are less clear, but the school quality and crime results firmly support the model's predictions. Using both school districts and municipalities to measure communities, larger communities weaken the rate of capitalization.