Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates*

When variables are correlated in time-series studies, it is often difficult to determine which is cause and effect, and in what sense. This paper applies multivariate time-series tests of causality to Australian wage, price, minimum wage award, labour demand and strike (working days lost) variables for 1953-76. The results provide tentative support for a model in which strikes are exogenous:the size of Arbitration Commission awards is determined by strikes (suggesting that a trade union capture theory of Arbitration Commission regulation may apply):money wages are determined by minimum wage awards; and the demand for labour variable (measured in this paper by the ratio of actual to potential output) is determined (in a negative relationship) by money wages.     

Dichotomous decisions based on dichotomously scored items: a case study

In a course in elementary statistics for psychology students using criterion-referenced achievement tests, the total test score, based on dichotomously scored items, was used for classifying students into those who passed and those who failed. The score on a test is considered as depending on a latent variable; it is assumed that the students can be dichotomized into the categories “mastery” (with scores on the latent variable above a cutting score), and “no mastery” (with scores below the cutting score on the latent variable). Two problems are considered: (a) How many students are classified incorrectly? Using the binomial error model a procedure is described for computing the classification proportions: p(mastery, passed), p(mastery, failed), p(no mastery, passed), and p(no mastery, failed), (b) What is the optimal cutting score on a test? Using a loss function a procedure for computing the optimal curring score is described.     

The Effects of a Booming Export Industry on the Rest of the Economy*

It is argued that the roles of relative factor intensity and of the degree of factor mobility have been neglected in models of booming export industries. This paper shows that, contrary to popular beliefs. the mineral export boom may result in (a) an expansion of all industries, (b) an increase in the profitability of the traditional tradeables sector, and(c) a fall in the relative price of non-tradeables .     

SOME THOUGHTS ON INDIRECT TAX EFFECTS IN SOUTH AFRICA*

Whereas income tax is the product of 19th Century thought on State revenue, indirect taxes and property taxes go back to ancient times. This is not surprising, for in underdeveloped countries consumption and property are more readily ascertained than income, which is wholly or partly received in the form of subsistence income or payment in kind.