基于效应分解方法生产理论研究

通过使用效应分解方法对生产者决策问题进行了分析。对如何使用这种方法将产品市场和要素市场信息结合到生产组织中进行了理论推导和应用。研究发现效应分解方法能够较准确地分析两个时期间生产中的变化问题,从而为生产者科学决策提供依据。     

Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations

By carefully matching the data sets from the Michigan Survey of Consumers with the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that there exists substantial heterogeneity in the propensity of U.S. households to learn from experts in forming inflation expectations. Additional results for a group of European economies broadly confirm this observation. We advance an extended version of the sticky-information model to analyze disagreement in consumer inflation expectations. Besides differences in consumers' propensities to learn, disagreement in our model arises from heterogeneity in consumers' fundamental inflation and past expectations and experts' different views about future inflation.     

地方经济政策不确定性与中小银行资金跨区域配置

基于1146家具有全国代表性的中小银行样本，探讨地方经济政策不确定性（LEPU）对中小银行资金跨区域配置的影响。结果发现：LEPU上升显著促进了中小银行资金跨区域配置。基准回归结果经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。在作用机制方面，LEPU上升加剧了中小银行本地经营的安全性风险和流动性风险，从而促使其进行资金跨区域配置。异质性分析表明，相较于城市商业银行，LEPU上升对于农村商业银行资金跨区域配置的促进作用更大。鉴于此，地方政府应尽量保证经济政策的连贯性和稳定性，以引导中小银行更好地服务本地实体经济。