MAY ISSUE VERSUS SHALL ISSUE: EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF CONCEALED-CARRY HANDGUN LAWS, 1960–2001

We analyze the timing and pattern of adoption of "shall issue" concealed-carry handgun laws. "Shall issue" laws require the authorities to issue permits to qualified applicants; "may issue" laws give the authorities more latitude to reject applications. We find three factors influence the shift from "may issue" to "shall issue." First, more urban states are less likely to shift to "shall issue," although the size of this effect is quantitatively small. Second, the switch is influenced by the decisions taken by neighboring states. Third, we find evidence that increases in the crime rate accelerated the switch to "shall issue." ( JEL K40)     

Lost Exceptionalism? Comparative Income and Productivity in Australia and the UK, 1861–1948*

Australia had one of the highest per capita incomes in the world in the late nineteenth century, although this exceptional position subsequently eroded over time. This paper compares national income and sectoral labour productivity in Australia and the UK between 1861 and 1948 to uncover the underlying sources of Australia's high income and the reasons for its subsequent relative decline. We find that the country's higher per capita income was due primarily to higher labour productivity, because labour force participation, although higher in Australia than in the USA, was lower than in the UK. Australia had a substantial labour productivity lead in agriculture throughout the period, due to the importance of high value-added, non-arable farming, and a smaller lead in industry before World War I. The early productivity lead in industry was largely based on the importance of mining, and disappeared as manufacturing became more important. There was little productivity difference in services. These results reaffirm the importance of Australia's successful exploitation of its natural resource endowments in explaining the country's high initial income.     

WELFARE LOSS OF WETLANDS DISINTEGRATION: A LOUISIANA STUDY

This study estimates the loss in welfare of projected Louisiana coastal wetlands disintegration. Various programs have initiated costly projects to terminate this disintegration process. But can these projects succeed, and will their benefits exceed their costs? This study addresses the benefits issues and estimates reductions in incomes and consumption opportunities and increases in costs that would be avoided if restoration and enhancement projects are successful. Estimated welfare losses that would be avoided do not include non-user and lifestyle losses, which may be very important, and they do not include the costs of dismantling coastal infrastructure. These exclusions make the estimates of this study minimum estimates of welfare losses. Future economic welfare losses represent a 1990 present value in a range between $5.9 and $24.3 billion, depending upon discount rates and whether low or high loss estimates are used. In order to make these estimates more meaningful, the implied wetlands values were calculated on a per acre basis. These values ranged from $8,437 to $15,763 per acre.     

Personal Lending Relationships

I identify the effects of personal relationships on loan contracting using executive deaths and retirements at other firms as a source of exogenous variation in executive turnover. After plausibly exogenous turnover, borrowers choose lenders with which their new executives have personal relationships 4.1 times as frequently, and loans from these lenders have 20 basis points lower spreads and 12.5% larger amounts. Personal relationships benefit firms across loan terms, especially during macroeconomic downturns. Increased financial flexibility from personal relationships insulated firms from financial shocks during the recent financial crisis: they exhibited less constrained investment and were less likely to layoff employees.     

Sequential Learning,Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns

This paper finds statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample portfolio benefits for an investor who uses models of return predictability when forming optimal portfolios. Investors must account for estimation risk, and incorporate an ensemble of important features, including time‐varying volatility, and time‐varying expected returns driven by payout yield measures that include share repurchase and issuance. Prior research documents a lack of benefits to return predictability, and our results suggest that this is largely due to omitting time‐varying volatility and estimation risk. We also document the sequential process of investors learning about parameters, state variables, and models as new data arrive.     

Independent invention during the rise of the corporate economy in Britain and Japan1

Independent inventors accounted for approximately half of all patents in Britain and Japan by 1930, despite the rise of the corporate economy and the spread of industrial R&D. A mixture of patent renewal and historical citations data reveals that the quality of independent invention was high. Active markets for inventions created incentives for independents, especially in large cities like London and Tokyo, which dominated spatially. Alongside evidence for the US, the findings show that in countries with different patent systems and at varying stages of economic development, a key component of overall inventive activity originated from outside the boundaries of firms.