A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate

We propose a forward-looking method to estimate the path for the federal funds target rate. We utilize six-month out probabilities of inflationary and disinflationary pressures, along with a labor market index, to estimate the fed funds rate. We further suggest that due to the changing nature of economies and impending risks to the economic outlook, a time-varying method (consistent with the nature of risks) would help decision makers to improve effective decision making. Our econometric results suggest disinflation (or disinflationary pressure), not inflationary pressure, best explains fed funds rate movements from the 1990s forward. Based on June 2016 data, there is a 55 percent chance that the inflation rate would stay below 1.5 percent during the next six months. The recent higher disinflationary pressure probability may be one reason the FOMC has repeatedly lowered its path for the fed funds rate. Unfortunately, the low-inflation zombie is real.     

Does telic/paratelic user mode matter on the effectiveness of interactive internet advertising? A reversal theory perspective

Drawing on reversal theory (Apter, 2007), the current research proposes that internet users' metamotivational state (telic vs. paratelic) determines advertising interactivity's effectiveness. An online field experiment involving 141 Facebook and Twitter users tests this proposition. Research findings support telic state consumers form more positive attitudes toward a low-level interactive ad, whereas paratelic state consumers form more positive attitudes toward a high-level interactive ad. Further, this research shows that an arousal seeking tendency mediates the metamotivational state's impact on ad attitude.     

Understanding repeat playing behavior in casual games using a Bayesian data augmentation approach

With an estimated market size of nearly $18 billion in 2016, casual games (games played over social networks or mobile devices) have become increasingly popular. Because most casual games are free to install, understanding repeat playing behavior is important for game developers as it directly drives advertising revenue. Game developers are keenly interested in benchmarking their game versus the market average, and understanding how genre and various game mechanics drive repeat playing behavior. Such cross-sectional analysis, however, is difficult to conduct because individual-level data on competitors’ games are not publicly available, and that the casual gaming industry is highly fragmented with each firm making only a handful of games.I develop a Bayesian approach, based on a parsimonious Hidden Markov Model at the individual level in conjunction with data augmentation, to study repeat playing behavior using only publicly available data. After applying the proposed approach to a sample of 379 casual games, I find that the average daily attrition rate across game is around 36.5%, with an average “play” rate of 47.9%, resulting in an average ARPU (average revenue per user) across games of around 20.5 cents. Certain genres are linked to higher attrition rates and play rates. In addition, giving out a “daily bonus” or limiting the amount of time that gamers can play each day are associated with a 17.7% and 16.4% higher ARPU, respectively.     

Estimating the long-term effects of advertising on sales: a co-integration perspective

Co-integration econometrics have important theoretical advantages over more traditional approaches to estimating the long-term effects of one variable on another. When advertising and sales data are co-integrated, adaptations of common econometric procedures may be used to estimate the long-term effects directly rather than inferring them from short-term relationships. This paper presents a method for detecting and estimating co-integrating relationships using ordinary least-squares regression procedures. The method is illustrated with the well-known Lydia Pinkham data from 1907 through to 1961. The results show that there was a strong positive relationship between Lydia Pinkham advertising and sales in the long-term. Implications of the method and findings are discussed.     

Bayesian multi-resolution spatial analysis with applications to marketing

Marketing researchers have become increasingly interested in spatial datasets. A main challenge of analyzing spatial data is that researchers must a priori choose the size and make-up of the areal units, hence the resolution of the analysis. Analyzing the data at a resolution that is too high may mask ??macro?? patterns, while analyzing the data at a resolution that is too low may result in aggregation bias. Thus, ideally marketing researchers would want a ??data-driven?? method to determine the ??optimal?? resolution of analysis, and at the same time automatically explore the same dataset under different resolutions, to obtain a full set of empirical insights to help with managerial decision making. In this paper, we propose a new approach for multi-resolution spatial analysis that is based on Bayesian model selection. We demonstrate our method using two recent marketing datasets from published studies: (i) the Netgrocer spatial sales data in Bell and Song (Quantitative Marketing and Economics 5:361?C400, 2007), and (ii) the Pathtracker^? data in Hui et al. (Marketing Science 28:566?C572, 2009b; Journal of Consumer Research 36:478?C493, 2009c) that track shoppers?? in-store movements. In both cases, our method allows researchers to not only automatically select the resolution of the analysis, but also analyze the data under different resolutions to understand the variation in insights and robustness to the level of aggregation.     

Believing in employment discrimination: The case of Forrest Mims,Scientific American,and title VII protection

This article reviews the law regarding Title VII employment discrimination protection from religious discrimination. The issues surrounding the principal legal protection in this regard are explored in the context of a recent controversial case in which an author, Forrest Mims, was not hired as a regular contributor forScientific American magazine, ostensibly because of his belief in the theory of creation over the theory of evolution. The definition of what constitutes a protected religious belief or practice is seen to have expanded over time. However, a belief in creationism is not necessarily seen as being tantamount to a religious belief under present legal interpretation of Title VII. The implications of this finding for future needed Title VII revision are discussed.     

Firm Responses to Income Inequality and the Cost of Time

The full cost of shopping includes the cost of the shopper's time.When that cost increases, stores have incentives to respond in waysthat economize on shopper time. One response is to substitute in-storelabor for shopper time. Pooled cross-sectional tests using data fromsuburban and city food stores show that various labor intensitymeasures are higher where the opportunity cost of shopper time ishigher. We distinguish between income and cost of time effects byshowing that store labor intensity depends on the composition ofincome between male and female members of the family, and notonly on the level of family income. We obtain similar results for twoother ways that food stores can economize on shopper time – locatingcloser to the customer and offering more check out stations withina store. We also use a unique shopping time survey to showthat shoppers from higher income households make fewer visitsto food stores, spend less time per visit in the check out line andare more likely to shop at stores with longer hours.     

Employee work–life balance outcomes in Ireland: a multilevel investigation of supervisory support and perceived organizational support

This article examines how employee perceptions of supervisory and organizational support for work–life balance, in addition to the number of work–life balance programmes available, predict a number of work–life balance outcomes including role conflict, job satisfaction, family satisfaction and turnover intentions in a sample of large private and public sector organizations in Ireland. The attitudes of HR managers towards work–life balance programmes are also explored. To account for the nested structure of the data, analyses were conducted using hierarchical linear modelling. We found that perceptions of work–life supportiveness as measured at the HR manager and immediate supervisor levels affect employee uptake of work–life programmes, employee work–life balance outcomes and turnover intentions.