Optimum allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling: stochastic matrix mathematical programming

The allocation problem for multivariate stratified random sampling as a problem of stochastic matrix integer mathematical programming is considered, minimizing the estimated covariance matrix of estimated means subject to fixed cost or fixed total sample size. With these aims the asymptotic normality of sample covariance matrices for each strata is established. Some alternative approaches are suggested for its solution. An example is solved by applying the proposed techniques.     

Project Management Knowledge and Effects on Construction Project Outcomes: An Empirical Study

This study examines the relationships among the PMBOK® Guide, project performance, customer satisfaction, and project success by assessing the efficacy of management techniques, tools, and skills for implementing infrastructure and building construction. Experienced interviewees from private engineering firms and public agencies were asked to complete a questionnaire, and the responses were analyzed by means of a structural equation model. The analytical results indicate the appropriateness of prioritizing the practice of the PMBOK® Guide in the construction industry. This study contributes to the literature by providing insight into interactions among the PMBOK® Guide and construction project outcomes in engineering practices. Particularly, the “bidder's conference” and “procurement negotiations” are the priority techniques to minimize bidding and legal procurement problems. Moreover, the study recommends the use of “stakeholder analysis,” “communication requirements analysis,” and the “communication methods” to perform effective communication management. Although the conclusions are based on the sample collected in Taiwan, the research findings can be used by project managers and educators to tailor the PMBOK® Guide to their unique needs and to design effective training programs for construction specialists.     

Persistence Characteristics of Tourism Arrivals to Australia

This paper examines the degree of persistence in international monthly arrivals to Australia by using data disaggregated by tourism‐source countries. We employ two competing models, which are very general in the sense that they include (seasonal and non‐seasonal) unit roots as particular cases of interest. The first model is based on a long‐memory process in the non‐seasonal part of the series along with a short‐memory autoregressive (AR) seasonal structure. The second model is based on a long‐memory process for the seasonal structure of the series, the short‐term evolution being described through a non‐seasonal AR(1) process. Results based on the residuals and forecasting assessment indicate that the second model is preferable in terms of fitting the data. We provide persistence ranking of all countries included in the study and discuss the managerial implications of the main findings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying a New Model of Customer Value on International Air Passengers' Market in Taiwan

This paper proposes a new model to discover customer value of air passengers by using data mining technologies. The results of this research can be applied in database marketing systems. The procedure applies See5/C5.0 (RuleQuest Research Pty Ltd, St Ives, New South Wales, Australia) decision tree; transaction records; Frequency, Price Discount, Destination and No‐Show (FPDN model; Recency, Frequency and Monetary model based) model variables; and socio‐economic variables to create decision rules for airline business. An empirical case of air passengers' market in Taiwan is implemented for the identification of this procedure and the Frequency, Price Discount, Destination and No‐Show model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic nationalism and economic integration: the Austro‐Hungarian Empire in the late nineteenth century 1

This article seeks to square two seemingly contradictory strands in the literature on economic development in the late nineteenth‐century Habsburg Empire. On the one hand, there is an extensive historiography stressing the rise of nationalism and its close correlate of growing efforts to organize economic life along ethno‐linguistic lines. On the other, there is a substantial body of research that emphasizes significant improvements in market integration across the empire as an outcome of the diffusion of industrialization and an expanding railway network, among other factors. In this article, it is argued that the process of market integration was systematically asymmetric, shaped by intensifying intra‐empire nationality conflicts. While grain markets in Austria‐Hungary became overall more integrated over time, they also became systematically biased: regions with a similar ethno‐linguistic composition of their population came to display significantly smaller price gaps between each other than regions with different compositions. The emergence and persistence of this differential integration cannot be explained by changes in infrastructure and transport costs, simple geographical features, asymmetric integration with neighbouring regions abroad, or communication problems. Instead, differential market integration along ethno‐linguistic lines was driven by the formation of ethno‐linguistic networks due to intensifying conflict between groups—economic nationalism mattered.     

Segmenting Mainland Chinese Tourists to Taiwan by Destination Familiarity: a Factor‐cluster Approach

This research examines the effectiveness of destination familiarity as a segmentation variable. Based on the traditional destination‐choice model, which suggests that customers might eliminate unfavorable destinations in the early stages of information search process, this research proposes that familiar customers should possess more favorable destination images and higher visiting intentions than unfamiliar customers. As the results confirm the positive effects of destination familiarity on destination image and travel intention, the effectiveness of destination familiarity as a segmentation variable is also verified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Knowledge Spillovers on Knowledge Production and Productivity Growth in Korean Manufacturing Firms

Using Korean firm‐level data, this paper studies the effects of knowledge spillovers on knowledge production and productivity growth. Data from 213 Korean firms for the years 1985 to 2007 are used, and the number of patent applications is used as a proxy variable for knowledge. The results show that all the growth rates of output, patents, and productivity are higher in high‐technology firms. Regression results show that the spillover effect on knowledge production and productivity growth is very significant, and that the spillover effect is larger in small firms than in large firms. Moreover, spillover effects on productivity growth are larger after 1995, when Korean intellectual property rights were strengthened. Our findings suggest that the effects of knowledge spillover on productivity are positively correlated with strong intellectual property rights.     

Financial Reporting Opacity and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Implied Volatility Smirks

The recent financial crisis has stimulated a renewed interest in understanding the determinants of stock price crash risk (i.e., left tail risk). Recent research shows that opaque financial reports enable managers to hide and accumulate bad news for extended periods. When the accumulated bad news reaches a certain tipping point, it will be suddenly released to the market at once, resulting in an abrupt decline in stock price (i.e., a crash). This study extends this line of research by examining the impact of financial reporting opacity on perceived or expected crash risk. Prominent economists, such as Olivier Blanchard, argue that removing the perception of tail risks (in addition to realized tail risks) is crucial in restoring investor confidence and stabilizing the stock market. Using the steepness of option implied volatility skew as a proxy for perceived crash risk, we find that accrual management, the presence of financial statement restatements, and auditor‐attested internal control weakness are all positively and significantly associated with the level of perceived crash risk. Our results suggest that improving financial reporting transparency is an important mechanism for firms and policymakers to reduce the perception of tail risks and stabilize the stock market.