Mean square error estimation in multi-stage sampling

Summary: Suppose for a homogeneous linear unbiased function of the sampled first stage unit (fsu)-values taken as an estimator of a survey population total, the sampling variance is expressed as a homogeneous quadratic function of the fsu-values. When the fsu-values are not ascertainable but unbiased estimators for them are separately available through sampling in later stages and substituted into the estimator, Raj (1968) gave a simple variance estimator formula for this multi-stage estimator of the population total. He requires that the variances of the estimated fsu-values in sampling at later stages and their unbiased estimators are available in certain `simple forms'. For the same set-up Rao (1975) derived an alternative variance estimator when the later stage sampling variances have more ‘complex forms’. Here we pursue with Raj's (1968) simple forms to derive a few alternative variance and mean square error estimators when the condition of homogeneity or unbiasedness in the original estimator of the total is relaxed and the variance of the original estimator is not expressed as a quadratic form.  We illustrate a particular three-stage sampling strategy and present a simulation-based numerical exercise showing the relative efficacies of two alternative variance estimators. Received: 19 February 1999     

Does the World Bank have any impact on human development of the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa

In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries for the 1990–2002 period to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains.     

Interpartner Legitimacy in the Alliance Development Process*

abstract We propose a framework to understand interpartner legitimacy in strategic alliances. Interpartner legitimacy is the mutual acknowledgment by the alliance partners that their actions are proper in the developmental processes of the alliance. We argue that interpartner legitimacy is needed for cooperation to achieve alliance objectives. We propose three types of interpartner legitimacy – pragmatic, moral, and cognitive legitimacy – and discuss the dynamics of these three types in the formation, operation, and outcome stages of alliance development. Further, we discuss the salience of interpartner legitimacy in different alliance types. Finally, we derive propositions for further research, and discuss strategies that alliance managers can adopt to develop interpartner legitimacy.     

Order Flows,Investor Sentiments and Feedback Trade in Index Futures Market

This paper examines the presence of feedback trading, and investor sentiment drove feedback trading by traders in the Nifty 50 index futures contract in India. The results of the study using high-frequency data sampled at 10 min interval using VAR and contemporaneous VAR model as applied to market microstructure settings reveals negative evidence of feedback trade and investor sentiment-driven feedback trade in Nifty 50 futures contract. Further, consistency with noise trading hypothesis, order flows in Nifty 50 futures contract is less informative when traders are overly optimistic.

     

Cost-effectiveness of omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting

Objective: Omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy has proven to be efficacious in severe asthma patients for whom exacerbations cannot be controlled otherwise. Moreover, evidence from different healthcare settings suggests reduced healthcare resource utilization with omalizumab. Based on these findings, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting.

Methods: A previously published Markov model was adapted using Brazil-specific unit costs to compare the costs and outcomes of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy vs standard-of-care therapy alone. Model inputs were largely based on the eXpeRience study. Costs and health outcomes were calculated for lifetime-years and were annually discounted at 5%. Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results: An additional cost of R$280,400 for 5.20 additional quality-adjusted life-years was estimated with the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$53,890. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that discount rates, standard-of-care therapy exacerbation rates, and exacerbation-related mortality rates had the largest impact on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Limitations: Assumptions of lifetime treatment adherence and rate of future exacerbations, independent of previous events, might affect the findings. The lack of Brazilian patients in the eXpeRience study may affect the findings, although sample size and baseline characteristics suggest that the modeled population closely resembles Brazilian severe allergic asthma patients.

Conclusion: Results indicate that omalizumab as an add-on therapy is more cost-effective than standard-of-care therapy alone for Brazilian patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma, based on the World Health Organization’s cost-effectiveness threshold of up to 3-times the gross domestic product.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Child Labor

Empirical evidence suggests that use of child labor as domestic help has increased significantly in recent years although the overall incidence of child labor across the globe has declined satisfactorily. This should draw the attention of economists and policymakers because domestic child labor is considered as exploitative and in many cases hazardous. This paper purports to explain this apparently perplexing finding theoretically in terms of a three‐sector general equilibrium model with a nontraded sector where only child labor is used to render services to the richer section of the society. The analysis shows how FDI‐led economic growth increases the size of the services sector although it lowers the overall incidence of child labor in the economy and improves the welfare of the poor families that supply child labor. Finally, a composite policy has been recommended that can deal with all three aspects favorably.     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

Changing Contours of Income Stratification and Decomposition of Income Inequality: Evidence from Recent Longitudinal Survey in India

The paper, based on India Human Development Survey (IHDS) data, tries to address the question- how unequal is India in terms of income distribution? Accordingly, the paper examines the trends, levels, sources and factors of income inequality in India between 2005 and 2012. Three important results stemmed from our analysis. First, in this paper we use Gini as a measure of inequality and find that income inequality in rural India has increased from 0.50 to 0.54 between 2005 and 2012, whereas, in urban India income inequality has increased from 0.48 to 0.49 during the same period. Next and most importantly, we decompose income inequality by income sources and find that amongst different sources of income inequality; the contribution of farm income in total inequality has decreased from 35 percent in 2005 to 21 percent in 2012 in rural India. On the other hand, the contribution of salaried income in total inequality has plummeted drastically from 65 percent in 2005 to 16 percent in 2012 in urban India. Finally, we use Theil’s T index from the class of Generalized Entropy (GE) inequality measures, while decomposing income by four most important factors; namely, place of residence, social, educational and occupational groups. It is irrespective of these factors; the relative share of within-group inequality is not only much higher than that of between-group inequality, also its share has increased between these two periods. Thus, our paper suggests that these mutually reinforcing inequalities, in the long run, if not addressed effectively, will create a hard-hitting division between the privileged and the rest in Indian society.

     

Modelling the dynamics of Bitcoin and Litecoin: GARCH versus stochastic volatility models

We examine and compare a large number of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) and stochastic volatility (SV) models using series of Bitcoin and Litecoin price returns to assess the model fit for dynamics of these cryptocurrency price returns series. The various models examined include the standard GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, t-distributed and moving average innovations. We report that the best model for Bitcoin is SV-t while it is GARCH-t for Litecoin. Overall, the t-class of models performs better than other classes for both cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the SV models consistently outperform the GARCH models and the same holds true for Litecoin in most cases. Finally, the comparison of GARCH models with GARCH-GJR models reveals that the leverage effect is not significant for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these do not behave like stock prices.     

ARE OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS TRANSITORY? NEW EVIDENCE FROM 24 CHINESE PROVINCES

Abstract. The fact that an occurrence of a unit root in real output is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend makes this an important topic for empirical investigation. We examine this issue for 24 Chinese provinces using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier panel unit root test which allows for a structural break. Our main finding is that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita for Chinese provinces are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend.