电加热技术在集输系统中的节能应用分析

近年来,井口电加热装置在油田应用的越来越广,该装置投资低、管理方便、不污染环境。但是,该技术对油井能耗状况、机采系统效率方面,还没有系统的分析。为此,结合沙埝油田区块的井口电加热改造情况,分析改造前后的机采系统效率和能源消耗情况,探讨电加热技术的节能潜力。     

基于相对剥夺理论的基尼系数子群分解方法研究

度量收入差距最常用的统计指标是基尼系数,但是由于基尼系数在按群组分解时的问题使得应用中受到许多限制,因此本文把相对剥夺理论引入基尼系数的子群分解中,得到了一个新的基尼系数子群分解公式,分解公式使群内差距和群间差距具有相同的形式,而且不仅能够计算高收入子群对低收入子群的相对剥夺,还能计算低收入子群对高收入子群的相对剥夺。并利用天津市2008年城镇居民住户调查数据进行了实证分析。     

Optimal model averaging forecasting in high-dimensional survival analysis

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.     

目标公司股权结构对敌意收购的影响——中信证券收购广发证券的案例研究

兼并、收购、接管(敌意收购)和买断,是公司控制权市场常见的几种表现形式。本文通过中信证券收购广发证券的案例研究,从敌意收购的过程、动因、反收购措施及市场反应的角度对其进行了分析,并指出目标公司的股权集中度、交叉持股、非上市公司特征等股权结构方面对敌意收购的影响。     

纺织品CAD设计系统的研究分析

纺织品CAD设计系统已经得到了应用并取得了突破性进展。它的研究开发已经为大多数人所认同,但是还存在一些问题。本文分析了纺织品CAD设计系统绘制工具中存在的问题、菜单栏中一些命令的欠缺和软件中的其他不足,并提出了今后研发的目标和建议。     

我国经济增长模式比较:内需与外需

中国经济发展所创造的显著成就,以及外向型程度的快速上升,引发了世界各国对中国经济增长模式的广泛关注。消费、投资和出口是拉动经济增长的三大需求和动力源泉,判断一国经济增长模式,一般看两个重要基准:一是看三大需求对一国总需求的贡献,二是看三大需求拉动的国内增加值对一国国内生产总值的贡献。相关研究表明,在需求主体方面中国以内需为主,在动力结构方面中国经济增长模式具有双轮驱动的典型特征。     

Targeted poverty investments and economic growth in China

In the mid-1980s, the Chinese government launched its ambitious poor area development policy, which was centered around a series of grant, credit, and Food-for-Work programs. Ironically, for the remainder of the 1980s rural poverty remained at about 90 to 100 million, or approximately 10% of the rural population. The lack of progress cannot necessarily be blamed on ineffective poor area policies, since much of the agricultural economy was mired in a deep recession between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s. By the mid-1990s substantial additional poverty reduction had been achieved. Even in the late-1980s, farmers in many poor counties did better than the national average in terms of income growth. After accounting for the effects of macroeconomic elements, what factors can help explain the differences in performance among poor regions and between poor areas and rich ones? Can part of these differences be accounted for by poor area policies, in general, or by the way local and regional officials allocate their poor area investment funds, in particular?The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of Chinese poor area policy. Specifically, the paper seeks to meet three objectives. First, we want to understand the evolution of poor area policy since the mid-1980s, trying to deduce the true goals of central and regional poor area officials, as well as how these policies have been implemented in the provinces. Next, we want to understand the magnitude and scope of investment into poor areas, and examine if changes in these policies have affected the uses of the investment funds. Finally, we want to determine the effectiveness of the investment of poor area funds, analyzing which types of investments have generated growth, and which ones have not.     

论构建和谐中原与实现中原崛起的内在联系

从经济崛起、政治发展、文化建设和社会发展的视角分析了构建和谐社会与实现中原崛起的关系,指出:构建和谐社会与实现中原崛起是有机统一的,二者内在统一于河南社会主义现代化建设事业的伟大实践之中,都是河南社会主义现代化建设事业总体布局和奋斗目标的重要组成部分。     

城市化进程中的农民问题

农民问题已经成为阻碍中国城市化健康快速发展的最大障碍。农民问题主要指失地农民生活保障、城乡居民收入差距不断拉大以及农民进入城市所引起的一系列社会问题。在实地调研的基础上分析城市化进程中农民问题形成的根源——农民的“非自愿”进城和农民的贫困。彻底解决城市化进程中农民问题的对策,应以市场化为导向,改革现行农村土地制度;在集体所有制基础上,通过赋予农民土地永久承包权、物化农民土地使用权、建立城乡一体化的土地使用权交易市场,盘活农村具有“巨额”潜在价值的土地资产。     

日本地方政府在环境政策实施中的作用

战后日本进入经济快速增长期,环境污染事件频发,环境问题使日本曾经是世界上的污染大国。通过国家、地方政府、企业、群众的共同努力,时至今日环境质量得到了极大的改善,环境技术得到广泛的推广,产业结构向耗能低、污染少的产业转移。这些成果的取得主要是日本科学合理的环境政策以及严格、彻底、有效地采取措施落实各项环境政策的结果。在这一过程中,日本地方政府先于国家制定区域环境政策和环境标准,对国家层面环境政策和环境法的形成起到了积极的推动和促进作用。同时,日本地方政府结合区域产业发展特征有针对性地进行环境监督和管理,为日本环境治理和环境保护做出巨大贡献。目前,我国许多地方政府对国家环境政策采取抵制的态度,阻挠或干预环境保护政策的实施,分析日本地方政府在环境保护方面发挥的作用对我国地方政府在环境治理和环境保护中的职能转变具有一定的现实意义。