Hidden but in plain sight: The role of scale adjustment in industry dynamics

While much is understood about the general pattern of industry dynamics, a critical element underlying these dynamics, the rate of the expansion of individual firms, has been largely overlooked. We argue that the rate at which firms can reliably increase their scale of operations is a critical factor in understanding the structure of industries. Further, success at scaling‐up the firm's operations provides a dynamic‐isolating mechanism that insulates established firms from new competition. We show that the bases of profitability in the industry (monopoly‐like profits stemming from the restriction of output, efficiency rents based on firm‐specific productivity differences, or transitory Schumpeterian profits) can be traced to the scale adjustment process. We explore these issues in a computational model of industry dynamics. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on stabilization and the World Bank

Balance-of-payments support has long been regarded as requiring only short-term or medium-term financing. It is not generally realized that the original intention at the time of Bretton Woods was that since balance-of-payments problems sometimes call for long-term financing, the World Bank should be empowered to provide such financing. The Bank's clear authority in this regard was allowed to atrophy, with the result that a major gap opened up in the operating functions of the Bretton Woods institutions.     

Binary choice and the supply of memory

In a binary choice experiment, the subject predicts on a series of trials whether a particular random event will or will not occur. The results of such experiments show systematic departures from expected value maximization, but to a degree that decreases as the reward for successful prediction increases. This paper proposes that the mechanism underlying these results involves the supply of memory. Subjects are influenced by the outcomes of recent trials, but tend to respond to the evidence in a larger number of trials as reward (and hence attention) are increased. Broader conceptual issues surrounding the notion of rational choice are also discussed.     

Attention allocation and input proportions

This paper presents an alternative to the standard microeconomic analysis of the effects of a change in relative input prices. Managers are portrayed as struggling to control costs. Because a rise in the price of a given input ‘promotes’ operations intensive in that input in the managerial attention priority list, it induces tighter control of such operations and thus a lower relative utilization of the input. The deterministic model analyzed is akin to stochastic models studied by Radner and Rothschild.     

Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model

We propose an econometric model for the transmission mechanism in Brazil after the inflation target regime (IT) implementation. We follow the statistical approach based on the LSE methodology by means of the Spanos (J Econom 44:87–105, 1990) categorization. Our proposed model includes the ratios of the debt and primary surplus to the GDP representing the government fiscal effort. We identify two long run relationships that produce new information on how to evaluate the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate links, respectively, with the output gap and the nominal inflation derived from the IS and the interest rule theoretical models. Such specification explores the role played by fiscal variables in monetary transmission; considering the government fiscal effort, a relevant issue for Brazil. We were also able to identify a third long run relationship that might help to uncover how output gap is related not only with nominal variables but also with the debt to the GDP ratio.