Endogenous leverage and expected stock returns

This note clarifies conditions under which endogenous choice of debt induces a negative relation between leverage or default risk and expected stock returns. In the context of the model of George and Hwang [2009. Journal of Financial Economics 96, 56–79], we correct the contention that variation in bankruptcy costs across firms is sufficient. Variation in asset risk parameters can lead to the desired relation, but may not when also controlling for variation in book-to-market ratios. A simple parameterization of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and profitability implies a negative association of expected return with leverage and distress risk and a positive association with book-to-market.     

Do Households Prefer Small School Districts? A Natural Experiment

Some education reformers have proposed breaking up large urban school districts, thereby moving to a more efficient scale, increasing school choices, and promoting school competition. This article tests whether households expect these effects and whether they value them. It considers the effect on real estate prices of the surprise breakup of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) into 11 minidistricts in April 2000. We estimate households' reaction to this reform in a difference‐in‐differences setting that controls for any unobserved spatial effects unaffected by the announcement. We find that households valued this decentralization, with a 2–3 percentage point increase in housing values in the LAUSD area over pre‐existing trends, compared with control districts. The effect is highest in wealthier neighborhoods but otherwise homogenous within the LAUSD area. The results suggest that households believe that decentralization would make schools more effective and that they respond to signals about schools' future.     

Testing the Specification of Economic Learning Equations

This article summarizes a recently completed study of the teaching of economics in U.S. secondary schools. It provides important data on the increase in economic education, on the experience and background of the teachers, and on the opinions of those teachers regarding currently available economic materials. The nationwide survey suggests that considerable progress has been made but also singles out problems that remain to be addressed by economic education specialists.     

Time-varying short-horizon predictability

In the G7 countries, the short-horizon performance of aggregate return predictors such as the dividend yield and the short rate appears non-existent during business cycle expansions but sizable during contractions. This phenomenon appears related to countercyclical risk premiums as well as the time-variation in the dynamics of predictors. Our empirical model outperforms the historical average out-of-sample in the US, but the results throughout the G7 are mixed.     

Relating Consumer Willingness-to-Pay for Food Safety to Risk Tolerance: An Experimental Approach

This study investigates the role of risk tolerance in shaping Canadian consumers' willingness-to-pay for food safety risk reductions. Non-hypothetical experimental auctions were used to elicit consumer valuations of food safety improvement. To identify the relationship between food safety concern and risk-reduction valuations, individual risk-perception scores are constructed based on questionnaire responses. Results show willingness-to-pay for improved food safety tends to decrease as individuals become more risk tolerant. Differences in bids across naïve and informed rounds of bidding tend to become smaller with risk tolerance for individuals who initially overestimated the food safety risk.