Do departures from democratic accountability compromise the stability of public finances? Keynesianism, central banking, and minority governments in the Canadian system of party government, 1867–2009

This paper is concerned with the effectiveness of Westminster parliamentary institutions in ensuring the stability of a nation??s public finances. Our starting point and major hypothesis is that the governance structure embodied in Canada??s parliamentary system has contributed importantly to the maintenance of fiscal stability. The fact that the Government of Canada, like the central government of many other modern democracies, has survived for over a century without default on its public debt means that in some meaningful sense, long run responsibility with respect to the nation??s finances has in fact been achieved, and we show that this is in fact the case. Hence a more meaningful test of our main hypothesis requires the designation of specific sub-periods when the ideological background for political policy making changed and/or when the institutions and organizations for operationalizing policy varied in ways that either improved or discouraged responsible fiscal performance. We consider ideational and institutional factors that are predicted to either enhance or detract from accountability and fiscal stability, including central banking, the adoption of Keynesianism, inflation targeting and periods of minority government, and test for their effects on long run stability of the debt to GDP ratio using data for almost the entire history of the modern state from 1867 to 2008.     

Toddler drowning prevention: teaching parents about water safety in conjunction with their child's in-water lessons

The primary objective of the study was to develop a parent education programme that addressed parental misconceptions of toddler water safety previously identified by the authors. Parents (n = 106) of 2-4-year-old toddlers enrolled in swim school lessons completed a self-directed questionnaire before and after a 10-week poolside water safety programme. Differences in pre- and post-programme knowledge and beliefs were measured by frequency and chi-square tested to identify significant changes in parental comprehension of toddler water safety after the programme. Statistically significant improvements in parental understanding were evident after the programme. More parents were aware of the family or friend's swimming pool as the primary site of toddler drowning (59% vs. 78%). More parents agreed that their toddler required more, not less, adult supervision after swimming lessons (85% vs. 97%) and more disagreed that swimming lessons were the best way to prevent toddler drowning (65% vs. 74%). Parental understanding of child cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), however, did not improve after the programme. This study suggests that toddler lessons in swim schools provide a valuable opportunity to address parental misconceptions about toddler water safety. Further research is required to determine how parents whose toddlers do not attend swimming lessons might similarly benefit from such a programme.     

Strategic Purity and Efficiency in the Motor Carrier Industry: A Multiyear Panel Investigation

Two questions facing motor carrier managers are (1) whether carriers should specialize in providing full truckload (TL) or less‐than‐truckload (LTL) services vis‐à‐vis offering mix of both and (2) whether this decision is contingent on carrier size. Yet, the literature provides little guidance because research to date has offered contradictory theoretical predictions and inconsistent empirical findings. Drawing on the theory of strategic purity and information processing theory, we explain why service specialization is likely to increase carriers' technical efficiency and why size will have a more pronounced effect on technical efficiency for carriers specializing in LTL services versus TL services. To test our theory, we assemble a panel data set from archival government sources regarding general freight motor carriers' provision of LTL and TL services. We measure carriers' technical efficiency using data envelopment analysis and test our hypotheses by fitting a series of panel data mixed‐effects models. Our results indicate that carriers are most technically efficient when they specialize in one service type. We also find that size positively affects technical efficiency but only for carriers specializing in LTL services; no returns to scale with regard to technical efficiency exist for carriers specializing in TL services.     

How Investment Opportunities Affect Optimal Capital Structure

This article addresses the question of how competition for investments among companies in a certain industry affects their capital structure. The authors develop a new modelling framework that simulates financial variables of a set of firms in a given sector, and uses the framework to analyze how such firms compete for new investments. The leverage of companies affects their flexibility to react to and take advantage of investment opportunities, and the authors show how such flexibility can be optimized to maximize the firm’s growth. As an illustration, they apply the model to a set of European airlines and global pharmaceutical companies. The novelty introduced by this paper is the explicit modelling of the interaction between several companies. The literature on optimal capital structure focuses on individual companies optimizing their capital structure in a world in which the actions of their competitors are exogenous. The authors’ results show how to incorporate the competitive position of the firm as well as the availability of investment opportunities into the capital structure decison.     

Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates

The distribution of shocks to GDP growth rates is found to be exponential rather than normal. Their standard deviation scales with GDP^β where β=−0.15±0.03. These macroeconomic results place restrictions on the microeconomic structure of interactions between agents.     

Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis

Card and Krueger's meta-analysis of the employment effects of minimum wages challenged existing theory. Unfortunately, their meta-analysis confused publication selection with the absence of a genuine empirical effect. We apply recently developed meta-analysis methods to 64 US minimum-wage studies and corroborate that Card and Krueger's findings were nevertheless correct. The minimum-wage effects literature is contaminated by publication selection bias, which we estimate to be slightly larger than the average reported minimum-wage effect. Once this publication selection is corrected, little or no evidence of a negative association between minimum wages and employment remains.