Endogenous time preference and optimal growth

We adapt the classic one-sector optimal growth model to include an endogenous rate of time preference along the lines of Becker and Mulligan (1997). The resulting model is both time-consistent and analytically tractable. Capital sequences are shown to be globally monotone and stable under very general circumstances using lattice programming techniques and value orders. We analyze a series of examples that exhibit a variety of behaviors, including closed-form solutions, unique steady-states, multiple steady-states, and conditionally sustained growth. The endogenous rate of discount preserves monotonicity and stability while allowing for the possibility of non-global convergence.I would like to thank Robert Becker, Leonard Mirman, Michael Kaganovich, Itzhak Zilcha, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and discussions.     

Value-added tax options for India

The pressures of aggregate revenue, the requirement of a reduced role for customs duties for the liberalization of the economy, and the complexity and strains of the current system together point clearly toward the desirability of tax reform in India. Since domestic indirect taxes provide the major source of revenue, they deserve special attention. This paper argues that India would benefit from moving toward a system of value-added taxation (VAT) and focuses on the way in which a VAT (or VATs) can be best introduced into India given the country's federal structure. Three different options are distinguished: a central VAT, dual VAT, and states' VAT. We argue that the first is politically infeasible, that the second represents the best way forward in the short term, and that the third deserves consideration as a long-run option. Special attention is paid to the problems that would arise under either a states' or a dual VAT with regard to taxing interstate trade.     

Stress test for reforms: Transition and East Asian 'contagion'

Contagion from East Asia imposed a severe 'stress test' on the market-orientedreforms of transition economies. We find that the portfolio reallocations of investors differentiated sharply among these economies at the height of the East Asian turmoil, appearing clearly in the relative movements in interest rates and share prices. Those countries that appeared more vulnerable to contagion had large public or private sector imbalances and low reserve cover of short-term debt. The analysis, however, goes beyond macroeconomic and financial imbalances to link these weak fundamentals to inadequate structural and institutional reforms. We find that flaws in public finances together with weak enterprises and financial institutions were key underlying factors in the vulnerability to East Asian contagion. They were also key causes of the Russian crisis, which initiated a new round of contagion driven primarily by high exposures to Russian trade.     

Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services

In this paper, the authors adapt the latest version of the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to incorporate cross-border services trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms are taken to be monopolistically competitive. Each firm produces products differentiated by the original R&D that defines the basic product and by location of production. Each firm faces a fixed cost in the country where production occurs, and sets an optimal mark-up for sales from each location. Firms locate production for export or for local consumption depending on the type of barriers faced. Barriers to trade in services take the form of an additional cost of employing variable capital and labor. The paper reports the impact on welfare, trade, factor prices, sectoral output, economies of scale, and activities of multinationals following the introduction of national treatment of multinational firms in all countries.     

Extending the economics of disorganization

Many of the states of the former Soviet Union have experienced a dramatic collapse of output during transition, which has not yet been reversed in a sustainable way. The economics of disorganization, proposed by Blanchard (1997) and tested empirically by Blanchard and Kremer (1997), reasons that this phenomenon can be explained by specificity of inputs and the breakdown of traditional domestic supply linkages. We replicate the Blanchard-Kremer study for Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and also find that longer and more complex domestic supply chains are associated with greater reductions in output. When we extend their analysis to incorporate measures of the complexity of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade and non-CIS trade however, we find that complexity of non-CIS trade is the significant factor in explaining the output collapse. We therefore argue that the disintegration of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and the requirement of hard currency trade, are equally, if not more, significant in explaining the output declines experienced by Ukraine and Kazakhstan.     

Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America,Australia and Morocco

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the US bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns and product variety. The modelling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non‐trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realised if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.     

The resources crisis

This article utilizes a new concept of supply and demand for raw materials. It emphasizes the need for the use of long run economics rather than short run analysis in the determination of a fair price for raw commodities.