The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.     

Fallback Bargaining

Under fallback bargaining, bargainers begin by indicating their preference rankings over alternatives. They then fall back, in lockstep, to less and less preferred alternatives – starting with first choices, then adding second choices, and so on – until an alternative is found on which all bargainers agree. This common agreement, which becomes the outcome of the procedure, may be different if a decision rule other than unanimity is used. The outcome is always Pareto-optimal but need not be unique; if unanimity is used, it is at least middling in everybody's ranking. Fallback bargaining may not select a Condorcet alternative, or even the first choice of a majority of bargainers. However, it does maximize bargainers' minimum satisfaction. When bargainers are allowed to indicate impasse in their rankings – below which they would not descend because they prefer no agreement to any lower-level alternative – then impasse itself may become the outcome, foreclosing any agreement. The vulnerability of fallback bargaining to manipulation is analyzed in terms of both best responses and Nash equilibria. Although a bargainer can sometimes achieve a preferred outcome through an untruthful announcement, the risk of a mutually worst outcome in a Chicken-type game may well deter the bargainers from attempting to be exploitative, especially when information is incomplete. Fallback bargaining seems useful as a practicable procedure if a set of reasonable alternatives can be generated. It leapfrogs the give-and-take of conventional bargaining, which often bogs down in details, by finding a suitable settlement through the simultaneous consideration of all alternatives.     

Moral Memory: Why and How Moral Companies Manage Tradition

Recent research on the role of ethics in the organizational culture literature found practically the whole literature reduced to a debate between ethical rationalism and ethical relativism. The role of the past in the form of tradition to maintain and improve moral reflection is completely missing. To address this gap in the literature on the level of practice, the concepts of moral memory and moral tradition are applied to data on 22 companies that have long-standing moral practices. In this way, the practice of moral traditions can be explored with recent conceptual advances and a list of best practices delineated. Moral memory is the recollection of and attachment to the succession of past events and experiences that maintains moral tradition. Moral tradition is the continuing transmission and reception of related moral themes through multiple generations of employees. It is found that companies that maintain moral traditions tend to develop “family” cultures with considerable compassion for workers as persons who have non-economic needs and rights. These companies also temper the role of leadership, insisting that leaders are responsible for and are evaluated by the company’s moral traditions. Finally, moral traditions are essential mechanisms through which companies paradoxically both stimulate and limit competitive behavior. Steven P. Feldman is Associate Professor of Management Policy, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University. Over the last decade, Dr. Feldman’s research has explored the role of moral memory and moral tradition in the ethical aspects of organizations. His book, Memory as a Moral Decision: The Role of Ethics in Organizational Culture (2002), found that the emotional and cognitive aspects of memory to be key in establishing moral organizational cultures. The moral importance of the past in the present has received little attention in the literature on organizational culture. Winner of the Distinguished Lectureship in Business Ethics from the American Fulbright Program, Dr.␣Feldman will be carrying out research on ethical issues in American-Chinese business relations in Shanghai in 2007.     

Strategies to prevent economic recessions from causing business failure

An average of more than 500,000 businesses failed in the United States during each of the 10 recessions that have occurred since the end of World War II. Yet, scholar and practitioner understanding of how to prepare for and respond to the challenges of an economic downturn remains extremely limited. This article analyzes and synthesizes the information from academic theory and business experience on managing through an economic recession. To assist firms in successfully navigating economic recessions, we suggest a program that involves positioning by investing in multiple markets and geographies, planning by developing a turnaround plan for facing sharply declining sales, promoting by maintaining marketing initiatives, and preparing by acting in anticipation of economic recovery.     

Consumer Self-Confidence in Wine Consumers: The Role of Knowledge-Based Factors

This study uses the Wine Self-Confidence Scale (WSCS) with a sample of 297 customers of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, a Florida-based retailer, to examine aspects of self-confidence in wine purchasing. The results indicate that two knowledge-based self-confidence factors (information knowledge and persuasion knowledge) were predominant for these consumers. The study showed strong support for the WSCS, which was developed as a measure of self-confidence in wine buying by Olsen, Thompson, and Clarke (2003) and how these relate to reliance on personal experience.     

Entrepreneurship through a qualitative lens: Insights on the construction and/or discovery of entrepreneurial opportunity

This article applies inductive analytic techniques to identify and elaborate on two recurring themes that underpin the core puzzle of entrepreneurship research — where entrepreneurial opportunities come from. The first theme is the unique role of imprinting, or the profound influence of social and historical context in constraining the perceptual apparatus of entrepreneurs and delimiting the range of opportunities for innovation available to them. Second, our analysis offers insight into the counterbalancing role of reflexivity, operating at both individual and collective levels of analysis, in generating the ability of entrepreneurs to overcome the constraints of imprinting. These insights are based on a thematic review of the nine studies that comprise this special issue on qualitative research. The nine studies, individually and each in their own way, offer key insights into how we might better understand the emergence of entrepreneurial opportunity.     

Prisoner’s Dilemmas, Cooperative Norms, and Codes of Business Ethics

Prisoner's dilemmas can lead rational people to interact in ways that lead to persistent inefficiencies. These dilemmas create a problem for institutional designers to solve: devise institutions that realign individual incentives to achieve collectively rational outcomes. I will argue that we do not always want to eliminate misalignments between individual incentives and efficient outcomes. Sometimes we want to preserve prisoner's dilemmas, even when we know that they systematically will lead to inefficiencies. No doubt, prisoner's dilemmas can create problems, but they also create opportunities to practice the cooperative norms that make market institutions possible in the first place. An ethical market culture, I argue, benefits from the presence of prisoner's dilemmas. I first consider standard approaches for solving prisoner's dilemmas. I then argue for the value of prisoner's dilemmas. Finally, I show the significance of this argument for advocating codes of business ethics.     

Closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model via polynomial expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn’t yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. JEL Classification C6 · C8 · M3     

An Empirical Investigation of the Relationships between Ethical Beliefs, Ethical Ideology, Political Preference and Need for Closure

An analysis is presented of the relationships between consumers ethical beliefs, ethical ideology, Machiavellianism, political preference and the individual difference variable "need for closure". It is based on a representative survey of 286 Belgian respondents. Standard measurement tools of proven reliability and robustness are used to measure ethical beliefs (consumer ethics scale), ethical ideology (ethical positioning), Machiavellianism (Mach IV scale) and need for closure. The analysis finds the following. First, individuals with a high need for closure tend to have beliefs that are more ethical as regards possible consumer actions, and score higher on idealism and lower on Machiavellianism, than those with a low need for closure. Second, a correlation exists between political preference and ethical beliefs. Third, a significant relationship exists between ethical ideology and political preference for the two largest political parties. Fourth, individuals with a high and low need for closure have different political preferences for right-wing and left-wing parties.     

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper implements the technique suggested by Den Haan (J Monet Econ 46:3–30, 2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The lead/lag approach provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others, and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. This technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the USA and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries. These low correlations may indicate that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries, but they also may indicate that lagging sectors feature a different transmission mechanism of shocks.