HOW ROBUST ARE ESTIMATES OF EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF CHINA

Abstract.  Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution.     

The theory of collateral

This paper develops a model of the loan market, noting interrelationships between size of loan, collateral arrangements, interest rate, maturity and repayment schedule. Collateral quality is explored.     

A Sample Selection Approach to Censored Demand Systems

The multivariate sample selection model is extended to a nonlinear equation system with partial selection and applied to household meat consumption in China. Elasticity estimates differ from those obtained from conventional maximum likelihood and Tobit estimates. Chinese meat products are gross complements while net substitution also exists in some cases.     

The Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and the telecommunications industry

The Canada-US Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect on 1 January 1989, could well prove to be a breakthrough in the liberalization of trade between the two countries. This paper highlights the provisions of the FTA that indirectly or directly affect the telecommunications industry, assesses their possible impact and evaluates their probable importance to different participants in the industry. The authors make many predictions as to the effects of this agreement in terms of both telecommunications equipment and services and foresee greater competition and larger markets.     

A community-based impact assessment of the Wild Coast spatial development initiative, 1997–2004

Much of the debate around the spatial development initiatives (SDIs) in South Africa is based on economic theory. To add the community perspective, an evaluation of local economic development on the Wild Coast followed a baseline in 1997 with comparable surveys in 2000 and 2004. Apart from an increase in access to piped water and a reduction in unofficial payments for health services, there was little community evidence of development over this period. Residents reported decreasing knowledge of the SDI and there was no increase in numbers considering small business ownership. In the investment-intensive ‘anchor’ areas, as in the SDI as a whole, there was no significant increase in employment and more households received remitted incomes from migrant workers. In an SDI for small businesses in tourism and agriculture, there was a dramatic fall-off in food production. No more households had loans in 2004 than in 1997, but more were taking loans from loan sharks. Other spatial planning initiatives might learn from the Wild Coast, not least through the perspectives gained from community-based impact assessments.     

Valuing Pre-Commercial Genetic Resources: A Maximum Entropy Approach

Genetic improvement has been a major contributor to agricultural productivity in the United States, but many questions about the economics of crop breeding, such as the value of pre-commercial germplasm, remain unanswered. This study estimates the marginal value of poorly characterized materials contained in the U.S. national germplasm system. Within the search theoretic framework, we apply a maximum entropy method to estimate the probability and the expected level of improvement in pest susceptibility relative to its best previously observed level. The results indicate that the lower-bound estimate of benefit is significantly higher than the upper-bound cost of conserving an accession.     

An axiomatic framework of dynamic production

We model a production system as a collection of interrelated production activities that consume exogenous materials and services to produce final products. The primitive elements in our study describe time-varying aspects of production, including intermediate product transfers between activities, inventory and material balances, and capacities on service consumptions. Each activity's production process is governed by a dynamic production function that maps time-varying input consumptions into realized output. We establish a dynamic version of steady-state duality, and a law of return for bounded input rates of essential factors. We also use our theory to re-examine the use of steady-state duality theory in applied production analysis.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through R. Färe.