基于钱纳里模型的中国经济结构研究——来自1978～2009年的经验证据

自20世纪80年代以来,中国经济一直处于高速增长态势,即使2008年席卷全球经济的国际金融危机也没有阻碍其增长步伐。研究经济增长对经济结构优化的影响具有重要意义0以钱纳里的经济结构分析模型为出发点,运用中国1978～2009年的真实数据实证分析了经济增长和就业人数两大因素对经济结构的影响,并使用弹性系数指标对影响程度进行细致刻画。从实证结论中得到如下启示：一是应继续解放和发展生产力,以经济的高速增长带动经济结构升级和优化;二是保持产业结构按“二、三、一”顺序发展,加强对第三产业的投入;三是通过发展第二、三产业来解决就业压力问题;四是促进经济和谐增长,积极转变经济增长方式。     

环境规制是否影响了污染密集型行业的比较优势?

环境规制是否以及如何影响了污染密集型行业的比较优势?现有理论和经验研究均对此尚无定论。本文运用中国省级数据检验了中国地区环境规制对污染密集型行业比较优势的影响。结果显示,环境规制程度更强的地区在污染密集型行业的比较优势更强。而且在加入了控制变量和考虑内生性问题之后,该结论依然稳健。这表明,中国没有发生国家层面的"碳泄漏"①。本文进一步指出,要素禀赋假说和波特假说在中国的成立可能是产生上述结果的原因。     

旅游管理专业实践教学创新模式研究——"三·三·二"模式的构建与实践

目前我国高等旅游教育与旅游产业发展需求严55重错位,学生学历与能力不相匹配,其中一个重要原因是现行实践教学模式滞后于旅游产业发展需求.旅游管理专业实践教学"三·三·二"模式的构建与实践是对现行实践教学模式一种创新性探索,对于解决目前高校旅游管理专业实践教学存在的问题和遇到的困难,推动旅游管理专业人才培养模式改革与创新具有一定的参考价值和指导作用.本文阐述了"三·三·二"模式构建的理论基础、基本理念、构建目标、模式框架及实施策略.     

我国失地农民问题研究述评

随着我国城市化进程的推进,失地农民问题越来越引起学者的关注。现有研究主要集中在失地农民的权益、补偿安置、市民化及社会保障等四方面,研究视野较窄,还有待于对失地农民的幸福感、就业状况、满意度及少数民族失地农民的生存境况等方面进行研究。     

维也纳经济大学税法硕士教育对我国的启示

文章考察了维也纳经济大学的税法硕士教育项目,重点介绍其教学实践环节。基于中国税务硕士教育的现状,在师资建设、教学、科研等方面总结出了该教育项目对中国税务硕士教育的启示。     

Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach

Background: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes.

Methods: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios.

Results: Univariate analyses showed that age 45–64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20–35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45–54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits.

Conclusions: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.     

组织惯性:理论评述与研究框架构建

自20世纪80年代以来,组织惯性已经成为战略管理研究的重要内容。目前学术界对该概念的理解仍然存在较大差异,不利于后续研究和组织惯性理论的进一步发展。首先,基于国内外组织惯性文献的内容分析,将文献按照组织生态学派、理性适应学派和混合学派进行归类,提炼出不同理论流派的主要观点;随后,从组织惯性概念界定、量化、作用效果等方面对不同流派文献进行系统性整理和归纳;最后,在现有研究基础上构建组织惯性概念框架,旨在为后续研究提供便利。     

我国现代农业产业技术体系的建设——基于新制度经济学视角的分析

从新制度经济学视角分析了现代农业产业技术体系建设中的产权制度创新、组织与管理制度创新、激励与约束制度创新,从制度供需两个方面论证了制度创新的必然性,并提出了相关建议。     

从结构角度看中国出口贸易的增长波动

本文基于经济周期理论,借助HP滤波法从总体和结构两个角度分析了中国的出口增长波动,结果表明:中国出口波动中,原料密集型产品出口增长速度最慢,劳动密集型产品出口增长持续性最强;资本密集型产品出口增长扩张收缩能力最强,增长最不稳定;易模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长最快,难模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长速度较快。总出口增长波动和上述五类产品出口增长波动之间存在长期均衡关系。     

Venture capital,innovation, and growth: evidence from Chinese metropolitan data

Using panel data from 282 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2015, we estimate the impact of venture capital (VC) on innovation, employment, and payroll in metropolitan areas. Controlling for endogeneity, VC investments are significantly positively related to metropolitan innovation, employment, and payroll in a fixed effects panel regression and dynamic GMM estimation. Using the number of IPOs (Initial public offerings) in the city as an instrumental variable to again control for endogeneity, VC remains significant. Our results show that VC is significantly contributing to the metropolitan economy as a whole by supporting innovation, creating jobs, and generating wealth in the local cities.