Semiparametric binary regression models under shape constraints with an application to Indian schooling data

We consider estimation of the regression function in a semiparametric binary regression model defined through an appropriate link function (with emphasis on the logistic link) using likelihood-ratio based inversion. The dichotomous response variable Δ$\Delta$ is influenced by a set of covariates that can be partitioned as (X,Z)$(X,Z)$ where Z$Z$ (real valued) is the covariate of primary interest and X$X$ (vector valued) denotes a set of control variables. For any fixed X$X$, the conditional probability of the event of interest (Δ=1$\Delta =1$) is assumed to be a non-decreasing function of Z$Z$. The effect of the control variables is captured by a regression parameter β$\beta$. We show that the baseline conditional probability function (corresponding to X=0$X=0$) can be estimated by isotonic regression procedures and develop a likelihood ratio based method for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the conditional probability function (the regression function) that avoids the need to estimate nuisance parameters. Interestingly enough, the calibration of the likelihood ratio based confidence sets for the regression function no longer involves the usual χ²${\chi }^2$ quantiles, but those of the distribution of a new random variable that can be characterized as a functional of convex minorants of Brownian motion with quadratic drift. Confidence sets for the regression parameter β$\beta$ can however be constructed using asymptotically χ²${\chi }^2$ likelihood ratio statistics. The finite sample performance of the methods are assessed via a simulation study. The techniques of the paper are applied to data sets on primary school attendance among children belonging to different socio-economic groups in rural India.     

Patent Protection and R&D with Endogenous Market Structure

In a model with endogenous number of innovating firms, we show that whether patent protection increases R&D investment is ambiguous, and depends on the market demand function and the cost of R&D. If the market size increases with number of firms, patent protection reduces R&D investment if the cost of R&D is sufficiently high, and higher product differentiation increases the possibility of lower R&D investment under patent protection. If the market size does not increase with number of firms, patent protection never reduces R&D investment. We find that welfare is lower under patent protection than under no patent protection.     

Medical Insurance Coverage and Health Production Efficiency

Conventional economic theory predicts that medical insurance coverage causes an inefficient production of health because of  ex ante  and  ex post  moral hazard effects. However, no research has empirically examined the magnitude of the inefficiency. This study empirically examines the impact of medical insurance on the technical efficiency of health production at the metropolitan level. The underlying health production function allows for preventive care, curative care, and behavioral factors. Data envelopment analysis determines relative technical efficiency. The multiple regression results indicate that insurance coverage generates inefficiency but the efficiency loss appears to be relatively small on the extensive margin.     

On the Value Relevance of Retailer Advertising Spending and Same-store Sales Growth

In response to recent calls to study factors that determine a retailer's stock price, this study draws on signaling theory to examine the impact of two key marketing metrics that are widely disclosed by retailers to investors, advertising spending and growth in same-store sales (COMPS), and highlights the moderating role of various firm- and sector-specific factors. Using a stock-response model estimated on a sample of 1,646 observations for 257 retailers, the authors find that the value relevance of advertising spending and COMPS depends on the financial condition of, and the competitive pressures faced by, the retailer. In addition, the positive effect of COMPS on stock returns is found to be stronger in the presence of decreases in advertising spending.     

Modelling risk factors for fatal pedestrian crashes in Kolkata,India

Abstract

In developing countries, pedestrian safety is an issue of major concern. Although an extensive body of literature is available on the identification of elements related to the pedestrian’s risk; the studies are primarily conducted in urban areas of developed countries. The findings from these studies may only be partially relevant to the cities of an emerging country such as India. The present study analyzes historical crash records obtained from the “Kolkata Police” and identifies the risk factors at the road network level for the hazardous corridors posing a high risk to the pedestrians. The study findings reveal that pedestrians’ fatalities at intersections are associated with a high vehicular volume, higher pedestrian-vehicular interaction, high approach speed, overtaking tendency of vehicles, certain land-use type, encroachment of footpath, inadequate sight distance, inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, wider minor carriageway, the absence of a pedestrian signal head, and lack of enforcement. On the other hand, the models outcomes reveal that pedestrians’ fatalities at midblock road segments are associated with low pedestrian volume, high approach speed, overtaking tendency of the vehicle, encroachment of footpath, on-street parking, wider road width, certain land-use type, inadequate sight distance, insufficient lighting, and inadequate pavement markings.     

Why firms adopt and discontinue new-issue dividend reinvestment plans

We examine several arguments—past performance, capital structure adjustment, and broadening the ownership base—involving why firms adopt and discontinue new-issue dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs). We test hypotheses for each argument by analyzing financial characteristics for firms adopting and discontinuing new-issue DRPs compared with matching non-DRP firms. The evidence provides some support for the past performance argument but none for the capital structure adjustment argument. Limited support also exists for the broadening the shareholder base argument. Overall, the results support the notion that firms needing funds initiate new-issue DRPs, and then discontinue them when the need for external funding diminishes. The authors wish to thank two anonymous referees and Joachim Zietz, the editor, for many constructive suggestions for the improvement of the paper. The authors take responsibility for any remaining errors.     

Social Efficiency of Entry with Market Leaders

We offer a new perspective to the social efficiency of entry by considering an industry with a quantity‐setting leader and free entry of followers. We show that entry with homogeneous products can be socially insufficient instead of excessive. In a closed economy, entry is always socially insufficient in the absence of scale economies, and it is socially insufficient in the presence of scale economies if the marginal cost difference between the leader and the followers is large. In an open economy with the foreign leader, entry is always socially insufficient. Thus, we show that entry regulation may not be justified in oligopolistic industries with market leaders.     

Foreign Capital,Spillovers and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian IT Firms

The role of foreign capital inflow, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), on export behavior of both recipients and non‐recipient competing firms in the same sector often guides economic development policy. By using panel data of Indian IT firms over 2000–2006, we show that FDI reduces the sunk costs of entering foreign markets and therefore positively effects both the decision to export and the export propensity of recipient firms. Foreign portfolio investment has no effect on the decision to export, but it does marginally increase the volume of exports. Further, these positive FDI and FPI recipient effects do not spill‐over to non‐recipients.