U.S. monetary policy indicators and international stock returns: 1970-2001

It is documented in the literature that U.S. and many international stock returns series are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy. Using monthly data, this empirical study examines the short-term sensitivity of six international stock indices (the Standard & Poor 500 [S&P] Stock Index, the Morgan Stanley Capital International [MSCI] European Stock Index, the MSCI Pacific Stock Index, and three MSCI country stock indices: Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom) to two major groups of U.S. monetary policy indicators. These two groups, which have been suggested by recent research to influence stock returns, are based on the U.S. discount rate and the federal funds rate. The first group focuses on two binary variables designed to indicate the stance in monetary policy. The second group of monetary indicators involves the federal funds rate and includes the average federal funds rate, the change in the federal funds rate, and the spread of the federal funds rate to 10-year Treasury note yield. Dividing the sample period (1970-2001) into three monetary operating regimes, we find that not all policy indicators influence international stock returns during all U.S. monetary operating periods or regimes. Our results imply that the operating procedure and/or target vehicle used by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) influences the efficacy of the policy indicator. We suggest caution in using any monetary policy variable to explain and possibly forecast U.S. and international stock returns in all monetary conditions.     

Die „Als-Obs” in der Finanzwirtschaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

An ill-informed choice: empirical evidence of the link between employers’ part-time or temporary employment strategies and workplace performance in Canada

Many employers seek flexibility through part-time or temporary employment to achieve improved competitiveness and success. Using strategic choice theory, this study is a longitudinal examination of employers’ strategic decisions of reducing labour costs and using part-time or temporary workers on workplace performance. Workplace performance is measured through profitability, productivity and change in net operating revenue. Statistics Canada’s Workplace and Employee Survey longitudinal workplace data are used for the analysis. Results show that reducing labour costs strategy has no effect on profitability, productivity or change in net operating revenue, and using part-time or temporary workers strategy shows decreased profitability and productivity, and that there is no effect on the change in net operating revenue in Canadian workplaces studied. Based on these findings, we recommend that employers, in Canada and elsewhere, not only carefully weigh reducing labour costs and employing part-time or temporary workers strategies for workplace performance, but also reconsider such strategies and instead seek alternative means of improving workplace performance.     

Children’s Snacks,their Ads and Consumer Sovereignty

Abstract

The concept of sovereign consumer preferences is challenged from three sides: child consumers, unhealthy food and advertising. The two theoretical concepts of merit goods and libertarian paternalism are implemented in order to classify situations in which full consumer sovereignty does not apply. An empirical analysis of ads for children’s snacks reveals the libertarian paternalist perspective as helpful for understanding the demand for and justification of ‘soft’ governmental intervention in the case of the advertised snacks, whilst the ads for these snacks may well be demerit goods. The banning or heavy taxation of these ads is therefore advocated.     

Understanding the Political Motivations That Shape Rwanda's Emergent Developmental State

Twenty years after its horrific genocide, Rwanda has become a model for economic development. At the same time, its government has been criticised for authoritarian tactics and the use of violence. Missing from the often polarised debate are the connections between these two perspectives. Synthesising existing literature on Rwanda in light of a combined year of fieldwork, we argue that the Government of Rwanda is using the developmental infrastructure to deepen state power and expand political control. We first identify the historical pressures that have motivated the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) to reimagine the political landscape. Sectarian unrest, political rivalry, wider regional insecurity and aid withdrawal have all pressured the RPF to identify growth as strategic. However, the political transformation extends beyond a prioritisation of growth and encompasses the articulation of ideologies and new mindsets, the provision of social services and infrastructure and the reordering of the social and physical layout of the territory. Growth and social control go hand in hand. As such, this paper's main contribution is to bring together the two sides of the Rwandan debate and place the country in a broader sociological literature about the parallel development of capitalist relations and transformations in state power.     

On Returning Inflation to Target

To gauge the breadth of current inflation and prospects for inflation returning to target, we consider disaggregated measures of CPI infl ation to evaluate trends and then consider diff erent scenarios for the realisation for wages and prices.

     

Utility maximizing portfolio insurance strategies when hedgers consider the impact of their trading on security prices

Portfolio insurance strategies can destabilize markets to such an extent that they may be counterproductive. Destabilization results when hedgers take share prices as given and follow exogenously specified price-based trading rules. We recognize that such trading rules may not be utility maximizing and that hedging affects share prices. Accordingly, we develop a portfolio insurance strategy where hedgers consider the impact of their trading on prices and endogenize their trading rule which is obtained by maximizing expected utility. Moreover, our strategy does not require the dissemination of information about the extent of portfolio-insurance based hedging activity in the economy.     

2009年国际外汇市场展望——全球经济下滑与经济力量变迁的方向

该文分析指出,由于世界各国的政策制定者都在积极地干预市场,次贷危机有望在2009年得到缓解。展望2009年国际外汇市场,除日元以外的亚洲货币将持续走弱,下半年才会有一定程度回升;市场发展将呈现经济去杠杆化、全球经济继续下滑、经济力量变迁等特征,而去杠杆化将有益于美元升势和日元走强。此外,因中国和印度正处于快速工业化的进程中,劳动生产率与结构性调整均获得了巨大改进,将有利于亚洲国家货币的升值。