Cointegration,Fractional Cointegration,and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Multivariate tests due to Johansen (1988, 1991) as implemented by Baillie and Bollerslev (1989a) and Diebold, Gardeazabal, and Yilmaz (1994) reveal mixed evidence on whether a group of exchange rates are cointegrated. Further analysis of the deviations from the cointegrating relationship suggests that it possesses long memory and may possibly be well described as a fractionally integrated process. Hence, the influence of shocks to the equilibrium exchange rates may only vanish at very long horizons.     

When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis,Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks

Previous research uses negative word counts to measure the tone of a text. We show that word lists developed for other disciplines misclassify common words in financial text. In a large sample of 10‐Ks during 1994 to 2008, almost three‐fourths of the words identified as negative by the widely used Harvard Dictionary are words typically not considered negative in financial contexts. We develop an alternative negative word list, along with five other word lists, that better reflect tone in financial text. We link the word lists to 10‐K filing returns, trading volume, return volatility, fraud, material weakness, and unexpected earnings.     

THE IMPACT OF NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FIRM VALUE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCING INDUSTRIES: AN EXAMINATION OF INDUSTRY-LEVEL EVOLUTIONARY ERAS

We explored the market reaction to new IT product announcements by the hard drive manufacturing industry in relation to that industry's evolutionary cycle of innovation. In the short-term, there was no effect. In the long-term however, announcements made during an era of incremental technical change had more favorable reactions than announcements made during an era of ferment EXCEPT where those announcements represented an attempt to develop the emerging technology rather than further developing the existing dominant design.     

Forecasting the Public Finances in the Treasury

This article describes the methods used by the Treasury and other government departments for making forecasts of the public finances. A highly detailed approach is required because of the Treasury's budgetary role, but the aggregated results are subjected to careful ‘top-down’ checks. Forecasts have a necessary role in fiscal policy. But they are subject to large margins of error, and should be presented and used with caution. JEL classification: E6, H1, H6.