HAS NEW ZEALAND'S EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTS ACT INCREASED EMPLOYMENT AND REDUCED WAGES?*

The Employment Contracts Act 1991 substantively altered the structure of the industrial relations system in New Zealand. This study estimates the effects of this legislation on employment levels and average hourly earnings in this country using disaggregate industry level data from 1986(1) to 1996(2). In the five years following the enactment of the ECA, nonagricultural union membership declined from 49.5 to 27.2 per cent of the work force. This is an important consideration because our regression analysis suggests that this decrease in unionisation is solely responsible for any effects of the ECA on the labour market. Full-time equivalent employment grew by 14.2 per cent between 1991(2) and 1996(2). At least 2.3 percentage points of this employment growth can be attributed to this legislation. If the ECA was partly responsible for the recent economic recovery, then more of this employment growth could be credited to this act. There are two basic reasons why the ECA might have increased employment over the past five years. It could have lowered hourly earnings, or increased effective labour demand. Estimates of a reduced-form wage equation and a structural labour demand function both point to the latter explanation. Since there is no statistical evidence that ECA reduced hourly earnings, falling unionisation must have increased effective labour demand.     

Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the interdaily volatility clustering for most speculative returns are best characterized by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. Meanwhile, much shorter lived volatility dynamics are typically observed with high frequency intradaily returns. The present article demonstrates, that by interpreting the volatility as a mixture of numerous heterogeneous short-run information arrivals, the observed volatility process may exhibit long-run dependence. As such, the long-memory characteristics constitute an intrinsic feature of the return generating process, rather than the manifestation of occasional structural shifts. These ideas are confirmed by our analysis of a one-year time series of five-minute Deutschemark-U.S. Dollar exchange rates.     

Corporate Risk Management and the Incentive Effects of Debt

This paper demonstrates how the incentive of manager-equityholders to substitute toward riskier assets, commonly referred to as the “asset substitution problem,” is related to the level of observable risk in the firm. When observable and unobservable risks are sufficiently positively correlated, increases (decreases) in observable risk generate the incentive for manager-equityholders to increase (decrease) unobservable risk. Thus, credible commitments to hedge observable risk can benefit the firm's manager-equityholders by reducing the incentive to shift risk and the associated agency cost of debt. This provides a positive rationale for hedging diversifiable risk at the firm level.     

Retail Derivatives and Sentiment: A Sentiment Measure Constructed from Issuances of Retail Structured Equity Products

We use retail structured equity product (SEP) issuances to construct a new sentiment measure for large capitalization stocks. The SEP sentiment measure predicts negative abnormal returns on the SEP reference stocks based on a variety of factor models, and also predicts returns in Fama-MacBeth regressions that include a wide range of covariates. Consistent with our interpretation that SEP issuances reflect investor sentiment, aggregate SEP issuances are highly correlated with the Baker-Wurgler sentiment index. Tobit regressions reveal that proxies for attention and sentiment predict SEP issuance volumes, providing additional evidence consistent with the hypothesis that SEP issuances reflect sentiment.