Dynamic adaptive transport policies for handling deep uncertainty

Many long-term transport policy decisions are made by assuming that (1) the range of possible futures is known well enough to predict future changes to the transport system, (2) there is enough knowledge regarding the correct transport system model to estimate policy outcomes, and (3) there is enough knowledge regarding the importance stakeholders currently assign to the various outcomes or will assign in the future. However, for long-term transport policy decisions these assumptions can often not be made, since decision makers, analysts, and experts do not know or cannot agree on (1) how the future will develop, (2) the system models, and/or (3) the value system(s) to be used to rank alternative policies. This paper presents a ‘dynamic adaptive’ approach to policymaking for long-term transport policies that aims at overcoming the shortcomings of traditional approaches for handling deep uncertainty. It allows adaptations in time as knowledge is gathered. The approach is illustrated with dynamic adaptive policies for solving various long-term problems in the fields of road, rail, and air transport.     

The key issues and procedures of industrial marketing research

Industrial marketing research has failed to receive its due attention in marketing books and journals, even though the volume of transactions in industrial goods and services is more than twice that of consumer goods and services. This article provides a systematic and wide ranging review of the issues, procedures, and opportunities found in industrial marketing research.     

Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings

The aim of this article is to study ruptures of exchange rate pegs by focusing on the fluctuations of the anchor currency. We test for the hypothesis that currencies linked to the USD are more likely to loosen their peg when the USD is appreciating, while sticking to it otherwise. To this end, we estimate smooth-transition regression models for a sample of 28 emerging currencies over the 1994–2011 period. Our findings show that while the real effective exchange rates of most of these countries tend to co-move with that of the USD in times of depreciation, this relationship is frequently reversed when the US currency appreciates over a certain threshold.     

Filter Tests In Nasdaq Stocks

This study examines the performance of filter and dual moving-average crossover trading rules applied to Nasdaq stocks. We find that trading rules conditioned on a stock's past price history perform poorly, but those based on past movements in the overall Nasdaq Index tend to earn statistically significant abnormal returns. Since there is a high level of transaction costs in this market, these abnormal returns are generally not economically significant. However, there are indications that pursuing some of these strategies can be worthwhile in carefully selected subsets of stocks.     

Policy Implications of the Trade and Wages Debate

This paper examines the choice of policies to redistribute income in response to an increase in inequality caused by a rise in the differential wage paid to skilled labor compared with unskilled labor. The main issue is whether the appropriate policy response depends on whether the cause of the increased skill differential is 'trade'—increased competition with low-skilled workers abroad—or technological change. The analysis is conducted within the context of a two-sector Heckscher–Ohlin trade model augmented to allow endogenous determination of the level of skill.