Evolutionary game-theoretic model for dynamic congestion pricing in multi-class traffic networks

This paper describes an evolutionary game-theoretic learning model for dynamic congestion pricing in urban road networks, taking into account route choice stochasticity and reliability considerations, and the heterogeneity of users, in terms of their value of travel time and real-time information acquisition. The learning model represents the dynamic adjustments of users to travel cost changes which may take place in the day-to-day as well as the within-day timescales. The implementation into a simplified and a real urban road network signifies the important implications of modeling the dynamic and stochastic learning components of users’ behavior for accommodating the efficient deployment of congestion pricing schemes.     

Reservation Values and Regret in Laboratory First‐Price Auctions: Context and Bidding Behavior

Recent articles hypothesize that an asymmetry in regret motivates aggressive bidding in laboratory first‐price auctions. Subjects emphasize potential earnings foregone from being outbid. Proposed motivators of this asymmetry include the one‐to‐one relationship in the auction between winning and positive earnings and the ex post knowledge that bidders who do not win the auction know they earned less than the winning bidder. We design a novel implementation of the first‐price auction environment in which these characteristics are not present, while leaving unchanged the expected‐earnings maximizing bidding strategy against any fixed beliefs about the bidding behavior of others. Bidding is significantly less aggressive in this treatment. These findings support the hypothesis that aggressive bidding is motivated in part by features of the protocol for incentivizing subjects that are not essential to the auction environment.     

A Nonparametric Test of the Traditional Travel Cost Model

The traditional travel cost model operates on the assumption that choices are made regarding the number of trips to various sites over an entire recreation season. This paper uses actual recreation data to test the consistency of this model with postulates of rational economic choice as embodied in the axioms of revealed preference. The paper assumes consumer rationality and examines the effects of alternative trip prices and model structures on the degree of consistency between them and the axioms of choice. Using tests developed by Varian and Tsur, the authors find that site choices at prices proxied by travel costs for most individuals in the sample violate the axioms. The violations are quite large when time costs, both in traveling and on-site, are omitted from the prices. When they are included, violations are almost as numerous, but not as large. The paper also examines demand heterogeneity by stratifying the sample and repeating the nonparametric tests. These findings suggest caution be used in interpreting welfare measures derived from traditional travel cost models, especially those that do not include measures of time value. The authors' approach provides a method for screening travel cost data and preparing for model selection and estimation.     

A Simple Approach to Better Distinguish Real Earnings Manipulation from Strategy Changes*

Researchers typically infer real earnings management when a firm's operating and investing activities differ from industry norms. A significant problem with classifying deviations from industry averages as myopic earnings management is that companies can change their operating and investing decisions for strategic business reasons rather than to mislead stakeholders. Using principal components analysis, we systematically evaluate existing measures and develop a comprehensive real activities measure to better capture earnings manipulation. Our measure reflects (i) deviations from industry averages across multiple activities and (ii) other signals of manipulation. This approach is promising because, although there are many sources of abnormal activities, manipulation is more likely the cause when managers engage in multiple income-increasing abnormal activities that coincide with other signals that indicate an elevated risk of manipulation. This simple approach results in a metric that associates negatively with future operating performance and earnings persistence, yields high-power tests, and captures manipulation reasonably well across most life-cycle stages. Importantly, this approach performs better than the standard real earnings management metrics across all dimensions. Specifically, it generates the expected reduction in future earnings and reduced earnings persistence in 82% of the tests compared to 36% and 46% in common alternatives. Also, because this innovation does not require a long time-series or rely on future period realizations for classification, it can be useful in more research settings than other recent innovations in the literature.     

The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European real estate sector

The day-of-the-week effect for the securitized real estate indices is investigated by employing daily data at the global, European and country level for the period 1990 to 2010. We test for daily seasonality in 12 countries using both full sample and rolling-regression techniques. While the evidence for the former is in line with the literature, the results for the latter cast severe doubts concerning the existence of any persistent day-of-the-week effects. Once we allow our sample to vary over time, the average proportion of significant coefficients per day ranges between 15 % and 24 %. We show that higher average Friday returns evident in previous literature, remain significant in 21 % of the rolling samples. We conclude that daily seasonality in the European Real Estate sector is subject to the data mining and sample selection bias criticism.     

Testing the Negative Effects of Time Pressure in Retail Supply Chain Relationships

In today's rapidly evolving business environment, retailers must develop highly responsive supply chains in order to satisfy constantly changing market demands. One approach to achieving this objective is to leverage the capabilities of other supply chain members to achieve cycle time compression of key business activities. However, when viewed through the theoretical lenses of Social Exchange Theory and Reciprocity, a potential conflict exists between facilitating supply chain responsiveness and maintaining close retailer–supplier relationships. The purpose of this research is to quantitatively test how the imposition of time pressure affects key elements of retail supply chain relationships. Scenario based experimental methodology was utilized to test the effects of time pressure on two distinct types of retailer–supplier relationships. Results of this research offer evidence to support the notion that time pressure can reduce collaborative behaviors, relationship loyalty, and relationship value in critical retailer–supplier relationships.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER FULFILLMENT SERVICE ON RETAILER MERCHANDISING DECISIONS IN THE CONSUMER DURABLES INDUSTRY

Historically, manufacturers held the upper hand in consumer goods supply chain relationships. There has been a pervasive shift of power to retailers over the past 20 years, however, ushering in an era of waning consumer loyalty to manufacturers' brands and increasing loyalty to retailers. While there is extensive research focusing on the manufacturer‐consumer relationship, retailers' increased ability to influence consumer purchases suggests that manufacturers should understand not only consumer perceptions of delivery service, but also retailer perceptions. We incorporate social network theory to examine the manufacturer‐retailer‐consumer linkages in the consumer durables industry, with the emphasis on the retailer in the role of the “broker” (Burt 1992). Specifically, we examine whether retailer perceptions of a manufacturer's order fulfillment service (OFS) positively impacts retailer perceptions of the manufacturer's brand, the importance of the product, and the likelihood of the retailers' salespeople to recommend the product to consumers. The research bridges OFS and retailer purchase behavior in a consumer durables industry characterized by high levels of consumer involvement, brand presence, and personal selling.     

MEASURES OF PRODUCTION PRICE‐LABOUR VALUE DEVIATION AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN ACTUAL ECONOMIES: A NOTE

Many empirical studies indicate that the deviations of actual prices of production from labour values are not too sensitive to the type of measure used for their evaluation. This paper attempts to theorize this rather ‘stylized fact’ by focusing on the relationships between the traditional and the numéraire‐free measures of deviation. On the empirical side, it provides an illustration of these relationships using input–output data from the Japanese economy.     

Market-Based Policy Instruments,Irrigation Water Demand,and Crop Diversification in the Bow River Basin of Southern Alberta

This paper investigates two market-based policy instruments, short-term water trading and volumetric water pricing, in a jurisdiction where historical water allocations are based on the seniority of appropriative water rights. The analysis identifies the potential effects of alternative surface water allocations on crop choices and on producer incomes in three irrigation districts in the Bow River Sub-basin of the South Saskatchewan River. The short-run effects of these alternative policy instruments are examined in scenarios where seasonal water supplies are reduced by 10–30% relative to the 2003 water usage levels. An important contribution of the paper is to present a computational, positive mathematical programming model that integrates both irrigation decisions and specific crop choices when characterizing agents' optimal responses to moderate water scarcity. The numerical results illustrate the manner in which the use of these market-based economic instruments can increase the irrigated land area and economic welfare relative to the allocations made based only on the seniority of water rights. Under full information with no transactions costs, the use of water pricing for allocation purposes can achieve the same production outcomes as could be reached under short-term water trading. However, the distribution of potential monetary gains and losses among agents would vary considerably across policies. Le présent article étudie deux instruments de politique fondés sur le marché, soit le commerce de l'eau à court terme et l'établissement du prix de l'eau en fonction du volume, dans une province où l'attribution de l'eau est historiquement fondée sur l'ancienneté des droits d'appropriation de l'eau. L'analyse a exposé les effets potentiels de divers moyens d'attribution de l'eau de surface sur le choix des cultures et le revenu des producteurs dans trois districts d'irrigation situés dans le sous-bassin de la rivière Bow qui s'écoule dans le sous-bassin de la rivière Saskatchewan Sud. Nous avons examiné les effets à court terme de ces moyens dans des scénarios où les approvisionnements saisonniers en eau ont été réduits de 10 à 30 p. 100 par rapport aux niveaux d'utilisation de l'eau établis en 2003. Le présent article visait, entre autres, à présenter un modèle de programmation mathématique positive intégrant à la fois les décisions concernant l'irrigation et le choix de cultures spécifiques au moment de caractériser les réactions optimales des agents face à une rareté modérée de l'eau. Les résultats numériques ont montré de quelle façon l'utilisation de ces instruments économiques fondés sur le marché pouvait accroître les superficies irriguées et le bien-être économique comparativement à l'attribution de l'eau fondée sur l'ancienneté des droits d'appropriation de l'eau. Selon les renseignements complets sans coûts de transaction, le recours à l'établissement du prix de l'eau en fonction du volume et le commerce de l'eau à court terme peuvent permettre d'obtenir les mêmes résultats en matière de production. Toutefois, la répartition des pertes et des gains éventuels entre les agents varieraient considérablement d'une politique à l'autre.