Estimating house price appreciation: A comparison of methods

Several parametric and nonparametric methods have been advanced over the years for estimating house price appreciation. This paper compares five of these methods in terms of predictive accuracy, using data from Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The methods are evaluated on the basis of the mean squared prediction error and the mean absolute prediction error. A statistic developed by Diebold and Mariano is used to determine whether differences in prediction errors are statistically significant. We use the same statistic to determine the effect of sample size on the accuracy of the predictions. In general, parametric methods of estimation produce more accurate estimates of house price appreciation than nonparametric methods. And when the mean absolute prediction error is used as the criterion of accuracy, the repeat sales method produces the most accurate estimate among the parametric methods we tested. Finally, of the five methods we tested, the accuracy of the repeat sales method is least diminished by a reduction in sample size.     

The distributional impact of social transfers in the European Union: evidence from the ECHP

Social transfers vary enormously across the European Union, as has been demonstrated in earlier research. This paper analyses the comparative effects of these transfers on inequality and poverty, using consistent household data. The analysis shows that the distributional impact of these transfers is greater in countries that spend a higher proportion of their GDP on them, but that there are other important determinants, including the extent of means testing, the distribution of funds between different types of transfer and the degree of targeting for each transfer. It also shows that effective targeting can be achieved without high levels of means testing.     

Factors Associated with Differences in the Magnitude of Abnormal Returns Around NYSE Versus Nasdaq Firms' Earnings Announcements

This study provides an explanation for the 'exchange effect' puzzle documented in prior accounting research. Grant (1980) finds that the magnitude of earnings announcement week abnormal returns is higher, on average, for firms traded over-the-counter than for NYSE firms. Atiase (1987) shows that this incremental 'exchange effect' persists even after controlling for firm size. We investigate potential explanations for this incremental exchange effect. We first show that even after controlling for differences in firm size, Nasdaq firms have less rich information environments and enjoy greater growth opportunities than NYSE firms. We then investigate whether differential predisclosure information environments and/or growth opportunities can explain the incremental exchange effect. The results indicate that although the absolute magnitude of the earnings announcement-related abnormal returns is inversely related to proxies for the amount of predisclosure information, the incremental exchange effect cannot be explained by differences in the predisclosure information environment. In contrast, after controlling for differences in growth opportunities across NYSE versus Nasdaq firms, and investors' heightened sensitivity to Nasdaq firms' growth opportunities in particular, there is no significant incremental exchange effect (whether or not we control for predisclosure information). These results suggest that the incremental exchange effect puzzle documented in prior research is more likely to reflect growth-related phenomena than differences in the predisclosure information environment.     

Competition and forecasts for Nobel prize awards

The evolution of Nobel prize awards is studied as a learning/growing process. A simple logistic function describes the data well and accounts for the competition, be it between individuals or between nations. The American niche appears to be 64% exhausted by 1987, implying a diminishing expected rate of laureates in the future. Europeans have been losing ground continuously from the beginning while the remaining world has recently received more awards. Projections to the year 2000 and beyond are given. Correlations with age support the Darwinian nature of the competition for Nobel prizes. Awards to women show peaks coincidental with outbursts of feminism.     

Elements of an economic justification for municipal zoning

The possibility that externalities will produce a nonconvexity in the social production set limits the application of both the Coase and Pigou solutions for achieving an optimal allocation of land resources. Conditions on relative land prices are derived which indicate that external effects are strong enough to introduce a nonconvexity into the production set. These conditions were not fulfilled in a sample of single-family and multifamily dwellings in Foster City, California. This does not preclude the possibility that they are fulfilled in cases of more severe external effects.     

A dynamic model of demand for Mediterranean tourism

A dynamic econometric model was specified in order to estimate tourism consumption changes by Northern European countries and the USA for major Mediterranean destinations. The model employed a flexible framework for modelling short-term dynamics as well as the long run effects of a range of variables of specific interest to the countries considered. The estimated model provided useful information for tourism demand. The income elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations. The own and substitute price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining tourism receipts of the destinations.     

Toward a Theory of Activist-Driven Responsible Innovation: How Activists Pressure Firms to Adopt More Responsible Practices

Accounts of stakeholder influence on corporate social responsibility (CSR), situated in the CSR domain, have recognized that activists mitigate information asymmetries between firms and consumers. However, depictions of activists as information disseminators do not explain how they perform their quintessential role – pressuring resistant firms to engage in responsible innovation that emphasizes the creation of socioenvironmental value. Drawing from social movement theory that identifies claims as the instrument of such pressure, we examine four activist organizations’ use of claims across six campaigns to drive firms to adopt more socially and environmentally responsible practices, a form of responsible innovation. Our core contribution is an empirically grounded theory of activist-driven responsible innovation (ARI) that proposes how activists use claims to drive firms to engage in responsible innovation, as well as how features of the two sides may shape this outcome. Our ARI theory primarily enriches accounts of stakeholder influence on corporate social responsibility in the CSR domain and, in doing so, secondarily enriches accounts of the influence of activists’ claims on firms in the social movement domain. These contributions also speak to the resolution of grand challenges, a core interest of the special issue.     

A Simple Approach to Better Distinguish Real Earnings Manipulation from Strategy Changes*

Researchers typically infer real earnings management when a firm's operating and investing activities differ from industry norms. A significant problem with classifying deviations from industry averages as myopic earnings management is that companies can change their operating and investing decisions for strategic business reasons rather than to mislead stakeholders. Using principal components analysis, we systematically evaluate existing measures and develop a comprehensive real activities measure to better capture earnings manipulation. Our measure reflects (i) deviations from industry averages across multiple activities and (ii) other signals of manipulation. This approach is promising because, although there are many sources of abnormal activities, manipulation is more likely the cause when managers engage in multiple income-increasing abnormal activities that coincide with other signals that indicate an elevated risk of manipulation. This simple approach results in a metric that associates negatively with future operating performance and earnings persistence, yields high-power tests, and captures manipulation reasonably well across most life-cycle stages. Importantly, this approach performs better than the standard real earnings management metrics across all dimensions. Specifically, it generates the expected reduction in future earnings and reduced earnings persistence in 82% of the tests compared to 36% and 46% in common alternatives. Also, because this innovation does not require a long time-series or rely on future period realizations for classification, it can be useful in more research settings than other recent innovations in the literature.     

Can short sellers constrain aggressive non-GAAP reporting?

Review of Accounting Studies - Prior research finds an association between short selling volume and aggressive non-GAAP earnings disclosures but does not explore whether increased short selling...