Wendell Bell and his contribution to the field of futures

In training to be a pilot one of the earliest lessons taught and repeated is that no matter what happens, the pilot must first and foremost fly the airplane. It can be bouncing in turbulence, slammed up or down in a thunderstorm, caught up in the vortex of a jumbo jet that has just taken off, radios gone, night dark and foreboding, but fly the airplane first, then solve the problem. This may be a metaphor that Wendell uses when he looks at life span and the prospects of death. He says (emphasis his) the first task of life is to live.     

Greek airports: Efficiency measurement and analysis of determinants

This paper presents a performance evaluation of the Greek airports considering their relative technical efficiencies and factors determining these determinants. The analysis shows the importance of seasonality in demand on the performance of the airports, and the effect of location, size and operating characteristics on their technical efficiency, signifying peculiarities of the Greek airport system.     

The performance implications of intra‐ and inter‐regional geographic diversification

Engaging the debate regarding the appropriate level of geographic diversification for multinational enterprises (MNEs), we examine a critical, yet unresolved, question: How is performance impacted by the MNE's level of intra‐ and inter‐regional diversification versus the total level of geographic diversification? Using data from 123 U.S.‐based MNEs over a seven‐year period and leveraging both sales‐based and subsidiary‐based measures for diversification, we find that performance increases at an increasingly higher rate as firms concentrate more heavily on intra‐regional diversification. Regarding inter‐regional diversification and total geographic diversification, we find inverted‐U relationships to exist between firm performance and the level of geographic diversification. Different from recent research on multinationality, our robustness checks indicate no evidence of a sigmoidal relationship between the degree of regional diversification and performance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources

China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has increasingly turned Chinese investors towards Latin America.This demand has propelled China into third place among Latin American investors,directing over $15 billion (about 9     

Beyond 'employability'

Concentrating on British welfare-to-work policy, the paper presentsa critique of 'employability-based' approaches to supply-sideintervention in the labour market. It is argued that the likelymacroeconomic impacts of the Blair Government's 'New Deal' programmeare being exaggerated, and that a more realistic appreciationof the limits and possibilities of such supply-side interventionsis required. Some suggestions for a reformed approach to welfare-to-workpolicy - based on a client-centred and developmental ethos,an enlarged concept of 'employment' (embracing the social economy)and active social redistribution - are proposed.     

Perception of What the Ethical Climate is and What it Should be: The Role of Gender, Academic Status, and Ethical Education

This study examined ethical attitudes and perceptions of 691 undergraduate seniors and freshmen in a college of business. Gender was found to be correlated to perceptions of "what the ethical climate should be" with female subjects showing significantly more favorable attitude towards ethical behaviors than males. Further, Seniors had a more cynical view of the current ethical climate than freshmen. Freshmen were significantly more likely than seniors to believe that good business ethics is positively related to successful business outcomes. Ethical education was significantly correlated to both perceptions of "current ethical climate" as well as "what the ethical climate should be". Students who had been exposed to ethical issues in a course were more likely to believe both, that ethical behavior is, and should be, positively associated with successful business outcomes.     

US Managers' Use of 'Pro Forma' Adjustments to Meet Strategic Earnings Targets

Abstract:  The practice of reporting manager-adjusted 'pro forma' earnings numbers in quarterly earnings press releases has attracted considerable attention in recent years in the United States. Prior research suggests that while some managers report these adjusted numbers to better reflect core earnings, others may use these earnings adjustments to meet strategic earnings targets on a pro forma basis when they fall short based on GAAP reporting standards. Assuming the latter motivation could potentially mislead investors, the difficulty lies in distinguishing the 'good guys' from the 'bad guys.' Using hand-collected pro forma earnings data, we investigate the extent to which different types of earnings adjustments affect the spread between pro forma earnings and GAAP earnings from continuing operations. Moreover, we investigate which types of adjustments managers use to meet strategic earnings targets. In addition to the exclusion of one-time items like restructuring charges, the results indicate that managers often exclude recurring expenses such as depreciation, research and development, and stock-based compensation to meet these strategic targets. The exclusion of recurring items is especially indicative of aggressive pro forma reporting. Finally, we find that firms that report adjusted earnings numbers only sporadically are more likely than firms that adjust earnings figures on a regular basis to use pro forma reporting to achieve strategic earnings targets by excluding recurring items.     

Dividend distributions and closed-end fund discounts

Empirical support for the hypothesis that closed-end fund discounts are related to overhanging tax liabilities has been mixed. We introduce a new approach to testing this hypothesis by examining changes in discount levels following distributions of dividends and capital gains. Since distributions reduce future shareholder tax liabilities, the tax liability hypothesis implies that closed-end fund discounts should decline following distributions. Focusing on changes in discounts isolates this tax effect by eliminating the impact of other fund-specific factors on discount levels. Our results support the tax liability hypothesis, showing that short-run fluctuations in discounts are directly affected by taxable distributions.     

A simple agent model of an epidemic

This paper presents an agent model that simulates the spread of an infection in a population. The epidemic depicted could be any attribute that is passed from a one person to others in society, for example, a disease, an idea or belief, a fad, a market or a behavioral pattern. The model was constructed to study the sensitivity of factors such as virility of the infectious agent, the “reach” of the vector and the density of the population in which the epidemic takes place. A further goal was to begin the development of a general-purpose forecasting model based on the use of agents. The model and its results are presented in this paper.     

A proposed convention for measuring the state of the art of products or processes

During 1980, The Futures Group performed a study under contract to the National Science Foundation to devise a convention for describing—in quantitative terms—technological state of the art of essential any technology. In designing this convention we hope that different analysts, working independently, would be able to arrive at a similar conclusion about the state of the art of a technology under study. With such a measure at hand, it would be possible, for example, to evaluate the effectiveness of investment in R&D by evaluating the improvement in the technological state of the art of a given technology, per unit investment.The form of the equation chosen for the state-of-the-art convention was SOA = K₁(P₁/P'₁ + K₂(P₂/P'₂) ? K_n(P_n/P'_n) where SOA = state of the art, K_n = the relative weight associated with each parameter describing the technology, P_n = the value of the particular parameter useful in describing the state of the art, and P'_n = a reference value of the parameter. Various approaches to the selection of the parameters and their weights were described. Of particular interest is a statistical approach which assumes that the state of the art, over time, is an S-shaped curve. In this instance it is possible to compute the value of the weights through an iterative numerical technique.The convention was applied to two technologies: computers and antibiotics, and state-of-the-art measures were developed for each. In the case of antibiotics, selected organism/antibiotic pairs were analyzed to identify the state of the art of a particular antibiotic as applied to the control of a particular microorganism, over time.