Robust future‐oriented technology portfolios: Black–Litterman approach

We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black–Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future‐oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.     

The Influence of Confucianism on Women’s Leisure in Taiwan

Abstract

Confucian philosophy has traditionally had a considerable influence on many aspects of the lives of the Taiwanese people. It is therefore necessary to take this belief structure into account in order to explain Taiwanese women’s leisure perceptions and behaviours. The purpose of this study is to examine this issue. The factors that constrain women’s leisure in Taiwan are identified. These categories can be broadly termed economic, domestic, social, and cultural constraints     

An Initial Investigation of Integrating Innovation Diffusion Models for Drawing First‐time Visitors

Prior studies in the existing tourism literature have frequently emphasized the relatively expensive costs for drawing first‐time visitors. These studies, however, have largely failed to explain how to draw first‐time visitors to a destination. In other words, little was known regarding what destinations should do to attract first‐time visitors in an effective way. To provide more insights, this research investigated the impact of three diffusion models on attracting first‐time visitors. These models included an external influence model for impact of mass media, an internal influence model for impact of interpersonal communications, and a mixed model for impacts of both mass media and interpersonal communications. Assessing the model impact in a macroapproach for first‐time visitors to Hong Kong, empirical findings indicated that the mixed influence model provided the highest explanatory quality, with word‐of‐mouth being a dominant factor.     

Native American casino marketing on the web

The Internet and its component, the World Wide Web (WWW or Web), as well as the casino industry grew tremendously in the United States in the past decade. While there are various estimates about the future size of the Internet and the casino market, all agree that the two will continue to grow substantially. However, very few studies have discussed Internet use within the casino industry. This study reviewed 58 Class III Native American casino web sites. Content areas analyzed included introduction to the casino organization, local destination attractions, food and beverage services, accommodations, entertainment and recreation facilities, maps and directions to casinos, links to related commercial and regulatory agency web sites, and user friendliness. Web site features were evaluated based on marketing mix and principles.     

A Study on the KBS TV Drama Winter Sonata and its Impact on Korea's Hallyu Tourism Development

The purpose of this paper is to examine the ties between the success of a TV drama Winter Sonata, produced by the Korean Broadcasting System (KBS), and the flow of tourism into Korea. By deconstructing the Hallyu phenomenon, started in part by Winter Sonata, the study tries to determine possibilities for Korean tourism expansion. Literature reviews, tourism data, interviews with specialists, and actual pieces of feedback from Winter Sonata's Egyptian audience are referred to draw conclusions on the subject matter. Results show promising markets far beyond just Asia, touched by Hallyu, but not the opportunity to tour Korea yet. Suggestions are then made on how to help sustain Hallyu tourism and increase access to potential new travel markets, especially those in diverse Islamic regions around the world.     

The performance of venture capital investments: Do investors overreact?

Using a unique proprietary data set of over 5400 realized and unrealized venture capital investments between 1980 and 2005, we examine the impact of demand-related factors, e.g. entrepreneurial activity, as well as supply-related factors, i.e. money provided by VC investors, on the return of individual VC investments. This way, we are able to shed more light on the question whether volatile VC investment returns are rather driven by fundamental changes with regard to the number of attractive investment opportunities or by the overreaction by investors. We find that rising demand for VC, i.e. an increase in entrepreneurial activity, results initially in higher returns. However, our results also indicate that overreaction on the supply side can be observed, destroying deal-level results. Overfunding, specifically overinvesting seems to be a recurring characteristic of the VC industry. In fact, contra-cyclical investment strategies yield highest deal-level returns.     

On the Efficiency of Bankruptcy Law: Empirical Evidence in Spain

The current economic crisis is showing one of the main problems that many companies in financial distress have to face, namely, the impact of bankruptcy law in relation to companies and firms. This paper aims to analyze the bankruptcy law ex‐ante efficiency when companies are in financial distress. To test it out, two research questions are submitted: (i) Is solvency, the criterion used in the Spanish law, the best one to assess the relative significance of the main indicators, which determine bankrupt firms? (ii) Is the Spanish bankruptcy law efficient according to solvency or are there better criteria? To answer them, a logistic regression model is conducted. The sample embraces 1,387 firms in Spain, the data being obtained from 12 Commercial Justice Courts complemented with financial information. The main conclusion is that the solvency criterion is adequate to classify bankrupt companies although currently Spanish Bankruptcy law is not as efficient as it could be. Additionally, the relevant companies' indicators, which explain the financial distress procedure, are presented. Copyright © 2013 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd