New development: Managing the Covid-19 pandemic—from a hospital-centred model of care to a community co-production approach

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 is not only a crisis of intensive care but a social and humanitarian crisis. Until mass vaccination is undertaken, control of contagion will rely on responsible behaviour by citizens. Strategies for fighting Covid-19 in different regions of Italy have shown that an area-specific approach, not just hospital-focused, pays off. This article proposes a community co-production approach, in the light of discussions with politicians and key health decision-makers and actors.     

Interjurisdictional Tax Competition in a Federal System of Overlapping Revenue Maximizing Governments

Academic literature in public finance has focused on interjurisdictional tax competition—namely among similar types of local governments—but has leaved vertical externalities arising from interactions between two overlapping governments sharing the same tax base aside. The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model within which interjurisdictional tax competition and vertical interactions between two overlapping governments that share the same tax base can be analyzed simultaneously. We find that interjurisdictional tax competition reduces the global tax rate set by both overlapping governments (federal and local) but is unable to solve completely the distortion arising from vertical externalities. The model is also extended to allow for government subsidies to industrial capital. We give sufficient conditions for capital subsidies to be more efficient to attract capital when they are granted at a federal level rather than at a local level.     

Does Risk Seeking Drive Stock Prices? A Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Aggregate Investor Preferences and Beliefs

We use various stochastic dominance criteria that account for(local) risk seeking to analyze market portfolio efficiencyrelative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization,book-to-market equity ratio and price momentum. Our resultssuggest that reverse S-shaped utility functions with risk aversionfor losses and risk seeking for gains can explain stock returns.The results are also consistent with a reverse S-shaped patternof subjective probability transformation. The low average yieldon big caps, growth stocks, and past losers may reflect investors’twin desire for downside protection in bear markets and upsidepotential in bull markets.     

Confronto fra eventi condizionati di probabilità nulla nell'inferenza statistica Bayesiana

Dopo aver introdotto delle operazioni logiche fra eventicondizionati (che estendono opportunamente quelle usuali fra eventi), si definisce il concetto di iperprobabilità condizionata Si può così dare una interpretazione significativa della pseudodensità condizionata, introdotta da R. Scozzafava nell'inferenza statistica bayesiana.

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By a suitable extension of the usual algebra of events, logical operations forconditional events are introduced. This leads to a definition of conditional iperprobability, which is the natural tool for a sensible interpretation of the concept of conditional pseudodensity, introduced by R. Scozzafava in Bayesian statistical inference.

     

Implied volatility surfaces and market activity over time

An impressive body of the literature has investigated the patterns of changes in implied volatilities across strike prices and maturities. Although such studies try to explain the existence of the volatility skew and term structure, they remain silent about the evolution of the volatility surface as time goes by and market variables move. Relying on a technique of signal processing called Independent Component Analysis, we extract volatility modes that account for most of the variations in the shape of the surface. We then relate the magnitude of volatility changes along those modes to market activity.     

Forbonnais,the two balances and the Économistes

Abstract

The link established by François Véron de Forbonnais (1722–1800) between two balances, the balance of trade and the balance of power, takes its full meaning in the context of the science of trade or “commerce politique” the author developed in his works. In polemical stance against the Économistes – the Physiocrats – and starting from the irremediable fact of the division of nations rather than their union, he intended to promote two goals: peace in Europe and the prosperity of nations through foreign trade. His approach was disputed by the Économistes who proposed instead a confraternal vision of nations in a free trade environment. This paper analyses Forbonnais' arguments, the answers of the Économistes and Forbonnais' final reply, and stresses the different views of politics this polemic denotes.     

Product-based cultural change: Is the village global?

We provide a model of product-based cultural change where trade integration leads to cultural convergence. A standard trade model of Dixit–Stiglitz monopolistic competition is coupled with a micro-founded model of cultural dynamics. We show that access to varieties that are attached to a global cultural type changes the incentives of parents to socialize their children and transmit their type. The resulting increase in agents of the global cultural type leads to a magnification of the initial shock. A striking feature of the model is that even temporary shocks to openness may have permanent effects through the changing distribution of preferences in the economy.     

IPO pricing: growth rates implied in offer prices

This paper studies the valuation of companies going public and defines a methodology to infer the growth expectations implicit in the prices of their Initial Public Offering (IPO). The proposed reverse-engineered DCF model is operable by individual investors, as it does not require access to private information or sell-side analysts’ forecasts. Applying the procedure to a sample of IPOs in three European countries (France, Italy, and Germany), we estimate the cash flow growth implied by offer prices and examine the bias of implied growth in comparison to the realized. We find that the estimated growth in cash flow is much higher than its actual realization, with the median IPO firm overvalued at the offering by 74%. Estimation errors increase with IPO firms’ leverage and underpricing, and decrease with age, size, and book-to-market ratios. Further tests find that post-IPO stock returns are lower for issues whose implied growth is more upward biased.     

Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity

We develop a dynamic model of a limit order market populatedby strategic liquidity traders of varying impatience. In equilibrium,patient traders tend to submit limit orders, whereas impatienttraders submit market orders. Two variables are the key determinantsof the limit order book dynamics in equilibrium: the proportionof patient traders and the order arrival rate. We offer severaltestable implications for various market quality measures suchas spread, trading frequency, market resiliency, and time toexecution for limit orders. Finally, we show the effect of imposinga minimal price variation on these measures.     

Economic behaviour of the firm and prevention of occupational injuries

In this paper an economic model of the firm's behaviour is presented, examining the interrelationship between prevention activities and employment level. A competitive firm with a fixed capital stock is considered. Two decisions must be made: the level of employment of homogeneous workers (L) and the level of prevention activities (I). Although many simplifying assumptions are adopted, the impact of wage rate and compensation level on both decision variables is sign ambiguous. Moreover the case where injured workers are irreplaceable is more difficult than its counterpart with perfect substitutability.