Two more classes of games with the continuous-time fictitious play property

Fictitious Play is the oldest and most studied learning process for games. Since the already classical result for zero-sum games, convergence of beliefs to the set of Nash equilibria has been established for several classes of games, including weighted potential games, supermodular games with diminishing returns, and 3×3 supermodular games. Extending these results, we establish convergence of Continuous-time Fictitious Play for ordinal potential games and quasi-supermodular games with diminishing returns. As a by-product we obtain convergence for 3×m and 4×4 quasi-supermodular games.     

UNEMPLOYMENT PERSISTENCE AND THE NAIRU: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

This paper estimates the United States and euro area NAIRU in a Bayesian framework. We set out a simple structural model explaining unemployment by demand and supply factors, which are treated as unobserved variables that have observable effects on measured unemployment, output and inflation. The model allows for unemployment persistence and a time-varying core inflation rate. The results show that although cyclical shocks are very persistent, most of the increase in European unemployment is driven by structural factors. The degree of persistence is lower in the United States but demand shocks seem to be more important in explaining variation in unemployment.     

Alternatives to Paying Child Benefit to the Rich: Means-Testing or Higher Tax?

There appears to be a general movement away from universal child benefits and towards means-testing. In the present article we argue that instead of suppressing the labour supply of middle-income parents by withdrawing the transfer as a function of income, one should consider the alternative of financing a generous universal child benefit by increasing taxation of income. The implications of means-testing compared with a tax-financed universal alternative are discussed analytically in a piecewise linear schedule and by combining information from behavioural and non-behavioural micro-simulation models. Our results provide support for making child benefit universal instead of means-tested.     

Motivating Employees with Goal-Based Prosocial Rewards*

A recent trend in organizations is to motivate employees with goal-based prosocial rewards, whereby employees must donate their rewards to charities upon goal attainment. We examine the motivational effects of goal-based prosocial rewards versus cash rewards under different levels of goal difficulty. We develop our hypotheses based on affective valuation theory, which posits that when valuing uncertain outcomes by affect rather than calculation, individuals are largely insensitive to changes in probability of the outcomes, including probability of goal attainment. Experiment results support our hypotheses. Specifically, we find that employees who are rewarded with prosocial (vs. cash) goal-based rewards are more likely to adopt an affective valuation approach. Consequently, when employees are assigned either an easy goal or a stretch goal, their effort is higher when incentivized with a goal-based prosocial reward than a cash reward. Furthermore, there is a less curve-linear relationship between goal difficulty and effort with prosocial (vs. cash) goal-based rewards. These findings highlight for incentive system designers the motivational advantage of goal-based prosocial rewards relative to traditional cash rewards. Furthermore, we extend the academic literature by showing how affect-rich rewards such as prosocial rewards can influence employees' assessment of the probability of goal attainment.     

Marketing insights from text analysis

Language is an integral part of marketing. Consumers share word of mouth, salespeople pitch services, and advertisements try to persuade. Further, small differences in wording can have a big impact. But while it is clear that language is both frequent and important, how can we extract insight from this new form of data? This paper provides an introduction to the main approaches to automated textual analysis and how researchers can use them to extract marketing insight. We provide a brief summary of dictionaries, topic modeling, and embeddings, some examples of how each approach can be used, and some advantages and limitations inherent to each method. Further, we outline how these approaches can be used both in empirical analysis of field data as well as experiments. Finally, an appendix provides links to relevant tools and readings to help interested readers learn more. By introducing more researchers to these valuable and accessible tools, we hope to encourage their adoption in a wide variety of areas of research.

     

A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before strengthening after 2020. There is evidence that this time variation is related to the pace of price changes, as we find that the maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against asserting a simple, time-invariant relationship when modeling the joint dynamics of monetary aggregates and consumer prices.