A credit market in early stages of economic development

Even if the relatively rich and the poor are initially caught in a poverty trap, the relatively rich can escape poverty by receiving payments from the poor. Further accumulation of wealth by the rich allows the poor to escape poverty.     

Unfunded pension liabilities and stock returns

This paper investigates whether the market rationally anticipates the value implications of unrecognized pension obligations, using a large sample of Japanese firms where pension obligations are substantially underfunded. If a firm's unrecognized pension obligation is not incorporated into its share price, its stock returns will be lower than those of other firms, because its deficit will affect the firm's income statement in the coming years. We find that firms with large unrecognized obligations earn lower risk-adjusted returns. This evidence suggests that the market does not efficiently incorporate information in the pension items.     

Real Indeterminacy of Stationary Monetary Equilibria in Centralized Economies

We show that real indeterminacy of stationary equilibria, by which the set of stationary equilibria is a continuum and the real allocation varies among equilibria, may arise in some general equilibrium models with fiat money. The conditions under which such equilibria arise are: (i) each household optimally saves a constant amount of money; and (ii) at least two households face different budget constraints. We present various models, including a decentralized money search model and a centralized model with a monopoly firm, to explain how these conditions lead to real indeterminacy. Finally, we present a policy that uniquely implements any desirable outcome.     

Control variate method for stationary processes

The sample mean is one of the most natural estimators of the population mean based on independent identically distributed sample. However, if some control variate is available, it is known that the control variate method reduces the variance of the sample mean. The control variate method often assumes that the variable of interest and the control variable are i.i.d. Here we assume that these variables are stationary processes with spectral density matrices, i.e. dependent. Then we propose an estimator of the mean of the stationary process of interest by using control variate method based on nonparametric spectral estimator. It is shown that this estimator improves the sample mean in the sense of mean square error. Also this analysis is extended to the case when the mean dynamics is of the form of regression. Then we propose a control variate estimator for the regression coefficients which improves the least squares estimator (LSE). Numerical studies will be given to see how our estimator improves the LSE.     

A SIMPLE MODEL OF KEYNESIAN UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper presents a general equilibrium model that extends a static New Keynesian framework to an overlapping generations model. The model shows multiple stationary states, one of which has the following strong Keynesian features: (1) a reduction in wages generates increased unemployment through a decrease in consumption, and (2) the fiscal multiplier is larger than unity and is increasing in the wage share in income.     

Pricing Commodity Spread Options with Stochastic Term Structure of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates

The purpose of this research is to provide a valuation formula for commodity spread options. Commodity spread options are options written on the difference of the prices (spread) of two commodities. From the aspect of commodity contingent claims, it is considered that commodity spread options are difficult to evaluate with accuracy because of the existence of the convenience yield. Hence, the model of the convenience yield is the key factor to price commodity spread options. We use the concept of future convenience yields to develop the model that enriches the stochastic behavior of convenience yield. We also introduce Heath-Jarrow-Morton interest rate model to the valuation framework. This general model not only captures the mean reverting feature of the convenience yield, but also allows us to handle a very wide range of shape that the term structure of convenience yield can take. Therefore our model provides various types of models. The numerical analysis presented in this paper provides some unique features of commodity spread options in contrast to normal options. These characteristics have never been addressed in previous studies. Moreover, it suggests that the existing model overprice commodity spread options through neglecting the effect of interest rates.     

Measuring economic localization: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data

This paper examines location patterns of Japan’s manufacturing industries using a unique firm-level dataset on the geographic location of firms. Following the point-pattern approach proposed by Duranton and Overman (2005), we find the following. First, about half of Japan’s manufacturing industries can be classified as localized and the number of localized industries is largest for a distance level of 40 km or less. Second, several industries in the textile mill products sector are among the most localized, which is similar to findings for the UK, suggesting that there exist common factors across countries determining the concentration of industrial activities. Third, the distribution of distances between entrant (exiting) firms and remaining firms is, in most industries, not significantly different from a random distribution. These results suggest that most industries in Japan neither become more localized nor more dispersed over time and are in line with similar findings by Duranton and Overman (2008) for the UK. Fourth, a comparison with the service sector indicates that the share of localized industries is higher in manufacturing than in services, although the extent of localization among the most localized manufacturing industries is smaller than that among the most localized service industries, including financial service industries.     

Technical change in a bubble economy: Japanese manufacturing firms in the 1990s

An important economic policy issue is to ascertain when and if technical change (TC) is driving measured growth in productivity. Was this the case for Japan during the late 1980s when a massive financial bubble was being formed? This paper addresses this question, after first further developing methods needed for this purpose. The movement of firms’ TC is of particular policy interest to Japan whose economy has been suffering from a prolonged recession for more than a decade since the burst of the bubble in 1990. In the period of time immediately prior to the burst of the bubble, our estimation results show a significant drop in technical progress. What we believe these results reflect is that Japanese manufacturing firms made excessive investments in production inputs in the years when the bubble was being formed. This excessive investment in inputs did not contribute positively to TC and hence the measured productivity and economic growth of the bubble period in the late 1980s was unsustainable.     

A business cycle model with variable capacity utilization and demand disturbances

We develop a dynamic general-equilibrium model with demand (preference) shocks, estimated using Hall's (J. Labour Economics 15 (1997) 223) residual, that replicates U.S. business cycles well, at least compared to the real business cycle models. The key factor is cyclical capital utilization, which is based on imperfect competition, slow adjustments in capital stock, and fixed requirement of labor input. We also demonstrate theoretically that a representative-agent economy with preference shocks could be viewed as the reduced form of a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete markets. Specifically, a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete markets is aggregated into a representative-agent economy with preference shocks. This result would provide a microeconomic foundation for preference shock models. It is also shown that a shock to marginal utility of consumption and a shock to marginal disutility of labor have different effects.     

Commodity Spread Option with Cointegration

We derive the valuation formula of a European call option on the spread of two cointegrated commodity futures prices, based on the Gibson–Schwartz with cointegration (GSC) model. We also analyze the American commodity spread option including the early exercise premium representation and an analytical approximation valuation formulae with cointegration. In the numerical analysis, we compare the spread option values calculated by the GSC model and the Gibson–Schwartz (GS) model that ignores cointegration. Consistent with the intuition that the cointegration prevents the prices from diverging, the GSC model prices the commodity spread option lower than the GS model which have longer maturity of more than 6 years. In other words, the GS model may overprice the commodity spread options for those with longer maturity without taking account of cointegration. Thus, incorporating cointegration is important for valuation and hedging of long-term commodity spread options such as large scale oil refining plant developments.