Can recipients of sales flyers be segmented?

This paper investigates the possibility of identifying clusters among consumers receiving sales flyers from retailers (supermarkets, etc.). First, flyers are defined and then consumers’ perception of flyers is analysed, based on a representative panel. According to the analysis, three clusters are identified. The clusters possess quite different characteristics – not just in relation to their perceptions and attitudes towards flyers, but also when looking at demographic characteristics.     

Relational View

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures

Building on realized variance and bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency financial prices, we propose a simple reduced form framework for effectively incorporating intraday data into the modeling of daily return volatility. We decompose the total daily return variability into the continuous sample path variance, the variation arising from discontinuous jumps that occur during the trading day, as well as the overnight return variance. Our empirical results, based on long samples of high-frequency equity and bond futures returns, suggest that the dynamic dependencies in the daily continuous sample path variability are well described by an approximate long-memory HAR–GARCH model, while the overnight returns may be modeled by an augmented GARCH type structure. The dynamic dependencies in the non-parametrically identified significant jumps appear to be well described by the combination of an ACH model for the time-varying jump intensities coupled with a relatively simple log-linear structure for the jump sizes. Finally, we discuss how the resulting reduced form model structure for each of the three components may be used in the construction of out-of-sample forecasts for the total return volatility.     

Multinational risk and performance outcomes: Effects of knowledge intensity and industry context

A multinational presence can diversify corporate business activities and provide access to diverse overseas resources. This can enhance operational flexibility and create new business propositions that increase responsiveness to global market changes. Establishing an international corporate structure may also require irreversible investments and impose maintenance and processing costs that contravene the implied resilience and agility benefits. We distinguish between downside risk and upside potential as the relevant outcome measures to assess the implied advantages of multinationality. Consistent with the rationales of the OLI paradigm, we argue that multinational reach particularly in knowledge-based industries can reduce downside risk and enhance upside potential. These results introduce more nuances to the ongoing debate about multinational risk and performance effects. Based on a large cross-sectional dataset, we find that flexibility and responsiveness thrives on a multinational presence among firms operating in information-driven knowledge businesses. In contrast, internationalizing firms in capital-based network services display adverse risk effects.     

Deutsche Mark–Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies

This paper provides a detailed characterization of the volatility in the deutsche mark–dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five-minute returns. The approach captures the intraday activity patterns, the macroeconomic announcements, and the volatility persistence (ARCH) known from daily returns. The different features are separately quantified and shown to account for a substantial fraction of return variability, both at the intraday and daily level. The implications of the results for the interpretation of the fundamental "driving forces" behind the volatility process is also discussed.     

A Monte Carlo investigation of the accuracy of multivariate CAPM tests

In a multivariate regression model relating individual returns to the market return, CAPM implies non-linear restrictions on the parameters. Several asymptotically valid tests of these restrictions have been suggested. The existing Monte Carlo evidence shows that some of these tests are unreliable for reasonable sample sizes, but does not indicate well which tests are reliable. This paper reports the results of an extensive Monte Carlo experiment. Shanken's CSR test and Jobson and Korkie's corrected likelihood ratio test are quite accurate in all cases we consider.     

Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate

This paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate. Since the early 1980s, the most important changes in the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system. We show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the Fed’s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994. By contrast, the declining role of required reserves in the US has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility. Our results suggest that the introduction of remunerated required reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate.     

Energiesparen: Warum wird Beratung gefördert?

Home renovation is generally asserted to be a highly effective means to increase residential energy efficiency and thereby contribute to climate protection from reduced energy consumption. As part of a larger package of measures in the residential sector, the German government is consequently providing financial support for home audits from recognized energy experts who provide advice on retrofitting options. To date, the question concerning the effectiveness these home audits has largely escaped empirical scrutiny. The present paper fills this void by providing evidence for considerable free-rider effects within the home audit program, yielding serious reservations with respect to both the effectiveness of the program and its fiscal costs. Moreover, given the substantial differences between the gross- and net effects of home audits that are revealed by this analysis, the program’s contribution to climate protection and thereby the central justification for the associated government outlays is called into question. The social benefit of the program emerges only from those retrofits that would not have been undertaken in the absence of the home audit.