International currency speculation,market stability and efficiency in the 1920s: A time series approach

Vector autoregressive time-series modelling methodology is applied to the 1920s exchange-rate data for France, Germany, the U.S.A., Belgium, and Holland. A Wald test is found to conclusively reject the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate for all five currencies. Details are given of various external shocks that may have influenced the exchange rates and these are dealt with by a set of dummy variables. The data series exhibit some rapid depreciations and nonstationarities of interest to econometricians and time series analysts.     

Forward Discount Bias: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?*

A risk-averse US investor adjusts the shares of a portfolio of short-term nominal domestic and foreign assets to maximize expected utility. The optimal strategy is to respond immediately to all new information which arrives weekly. We develop a model to estimate the cost of optimizing less frequently and find that it is generally very small. For example, if the investor adjusts portfolio shares every three months, an average expected utility loss of 0.16 per cent p.a. is incurred. Hence, slight opportunity costs of frequent optimization may outweigh the benefits. This result may help explain forward discount bias.     

Quotas and the second best

This note makes two observations about trade restrictions on subgroups of commodities. First, unlike tariffs, unalterable quotas provide no second-best justification for general restrictions. Second, the optimal allocation of intra-subgroup trade depends on the form of restraint imposed.     

本土化和全球化并存下的企业责任和公司治理(英文)

近几年,公司治理日渐成为新的研究热点,吸引了各界广泛的兴趣。从传统意义上说,公司治理研究的是不同国家背景下的企业内部决策权分配的问题。本文却旨在超越传统观念,试图将公司治理概念与日益凸显的全球化统一起来。 为更好地探讨新的公司治理形式,我们粗泛地把它定义为：多重参与者影响下的、聚焦于企业合法利用国内外资源的企业战略决策。此定义带有与“战略方向”意义相一致的内涵。两者均承认治理决策对企业战略方向有影响,后者决定了企业和股东能否获得好的投资回报。 在战略管理领域,“公司治理专注于解决公司内部决策权分配的问题”（Gollis 和 Montgomery,1997）是一个被广泛接受的观点。传统观点认为,企业决策权的制定应局限于对企业资源有明确主张的内部利益相关者,而今,越来越多的人认识到企业外部的利益相关者也应获得企业决策权的合法权（Hill 和 Jones,2007）。尽管拓宽后的公司治理概念（也就是说,超越企业边界的社会群体与从中选举产生的董事会影响企业资源配置的决策权）常被归入企业社会责任范畴;可一量考虑到企业社会责任涵盖经济,生态和社会等内容,公司治理概念的外延也随之变得广阔起来——它要解决的问题不仅包括如何为公司股东聚焦财富,同时也包括如何对自然与社会环境施加直接的影响。 让我们把基本假设阐述得更清晰些。首先,政府的三个层面,即联邦、州（或省）及地方,对公司治理的影响是有效且关联的;其次,国际关系的描述性效用（可识别为各国基于企业资源决策的竞争性互动）对公司治理的影响越发显著。考虑到影响战略方向与绩效的国际层面互动,我们假设,除了三个传统的政府层面外,还存有重要性不弱于前者的第四层面（称其为超国家层面或许更恰当）。在此层面上,有众多影响企业治理的参与另两种组织（跨国公司、非政府组织）进行了详细讨论。 很明显,跨国公司、非政府组织是影响公司治理的新要素,它的出现已得到文献详细论述（Dah 和Jeegen,2003）。随着非政府组织影响的延展,要掌握当代公司治理的演化,我们需对“全球”和“本土”等几组概念进行扩展。举例而文言主,从“本土”视角看,拉丁美洲仅意味着地球的某一特定方位,如果拉丁美洲真的与世隔绝,用“本土”描述这一时空统一体当然是正确的。然而,由于快速沟通的实现,尤其是互联网的出现,只要点击鼠标,“本土”即刻成为了“全球”。因此,“本土”和“全球”合而为一是全球化的结果。 非政府组织领导者非常清楚全球性的根本改变,他们利用这种改变来增强自己的优势,并依据即定目标最大地发挥该组织的影响力。利用互联网的信息传播或是CNN的新闻报道,基于很低的成本,“绿色和平”组织可在几秒内把一件地区性小事（村落传闻）变成全球性大事（国际流言）。有鉴于此,“本上”不仅仅是方位,它还是发生在这个方位上的所有事件,而这些事件能迅速转化为国际性焦点。无疑,本土和全球已融为一体,我们也必须将他们视为一体。 为进一步阐明公司治理近几年已发生根本变化的观点,本文运用三个安全例来支持这种改变是如何在利益相关者试图影响公司战略方向的情况下发生的。案例一讲述执行墨西哥组装工厂计划的跨国公司回应关于外界呼吁其自主披露战略导向的故事。案例二描写的是沃尔玛在美国某社区建立分店的意图遭非政府组织与当地市民反对而最终落败的历程。案例三介绍多元化的利益相关者（政府、非政府组织、跨国公司、联合国等）如何通过国际制裁、国内立法和行业自治等手段以保护钻石产业免受战略性威胁。     

The rise of economics in competition policy: A Canadian perspective

Competition policy in Canada and elsewhere has changed remarkably over the last 50 years—in large measure due to advances in economics. In this article, we trace the impact of developments in industrial organization on the three central areas of competition policy: cartels, single firm conduct and mergers. We focus on Canadian competition policy but draw comparisons with developments in the United States and Europe.     

Daily mutual fund flows and redemption policies

We examine how redemption policies affect daily fund flows in open-end mutual funds. Since short-term trading of fund shares, as manifested in daily fund flows, can have an adverse impact on returns to the fund’s shareholders, mutual funds might find it desirable to discourage short-term trading through the use of redemption fees. However, if daily fund flows are due to fund shareholders’ legitimate liquidity demands, the redemption fee would have little effect on daily fund flows and possibly adversely affect fund shareholders by imposing a liquidity cost on them. We find that the likelihood of a fund charging a redemption fee is largely a function of its overall fee structure. We also use a sample of funds that imposed redemption fees to examine whether the distribution of daily fund flows changes after the initiation of the redemption fee. We find that the redemption fee is an effective tool in controlling the volatility of fund flows.     

The effects of the international-domestic interest rate gap on US output

This paper examines how the relationships linking money to real output are altered when an international-domestic interest rate gap is included in the model. The results indicate that both the international-domestic interest rate gap and term structure exert a statistically significant effect on real economic activity. In addition, fluctuations in these variables contain significant information about future changes in real output. An interesting finding is that while the term structure dominates the international-domestic interest rate gap when estimating the entire time period, 1970:1–1996:4, the international-domestic interest rate gap clearly dominates in the more recent time period, 1985:1–1996:4.     

The economics of shortage and problems of reform in Chinese industry

This paper employs the economics of shortage framework to examine post-Mao reforms in Chinese state-owned industry. Performance has been disappointing because reforms through 1985 failed to fundamentally alter economic agent behavior. The “soft” budget constraints at the enterprise and local government levels continue to generate “quantity” and “expansion” drives. The resultant inflationary pressures have necessitated administrative interventions and thwarted reform progress. The Maoist legacy of active participation by local governments in economic management is high-lighted as a major obstacle to the elimination of paternalism in state-enterprise relations.     

The Determinants of School Participation Rates: A Cross-Sectional Analysis for New South Wales and Victoria*

Using data from the 1976 Australian Census of Population and Housing, estimates of the influence of family income. labour market conditions, religious denomination, foreign origin, locality and teenage income on the school participation rate of various teenage groups are obtained. These results suggest that family income is the most important determinant of school participation. The effect of the level of unemployment upon school participation is only modest. In some instances the direction of its influence is contrary to conventional wisdom .     

Undergraduate Economics Education in English and Welsh Universities

A professor experienced in both the United Kingdom's and the United States' educational systems, the author describes and compares the two countries' economic education objectives and practices.