An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys

We examine the informational content of New Zealand data releases using a parametric dynamic factor model estimated with unbalanced real-time panels of quarterly data. The data are categorised into 21 different release blocks, allowing us to make 21 different factor model forecasts each quarter. We compare three of these factor model forecasts for real GDP growth, CPI inflation, non-tradable CPI inflation, and tradable CPI inflation with three different real-time forecasts made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand each quarter. We find that, at some horizons, the factor model produces forecasts of similar accuracy to the Reserve Bank's forecasts. Analysing the marginal value of each of the data releases reveals the importance of the business opinion survey data—the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion and the National Bank's Business Outlook survey—in determining how factor model predictions, and the uncertainty around those predictions, evolve through each quarter.     

The market versus the analyst: Biases and predictive ability

Using the end of the quiet period (QPX) after an IPO as a venue for testing, we examine the long-run predictive ability of analysts and the market. Not only do we find that the analysts are reasonably good at predicting returns for at least a year, we also find that the market in general is at least as good—even after adjusting for the analysts’ recommendations. Separating the QPX market reaction into retail-dominated versus institutional-dominated – based on trade size – we find consistent evidence that only institutional-dominated reactions are positively related to longer-run return. When we examine 5-year survival prediction, we again find that only the institutional-dominated QPX reaction is positively related to survivability. There was no evidence that analysts were able to predict 5 years survival.     

Commercial complexity and entrepreneurial finance

This paper shows that the probability of small business firms obtaining outside financing to support their research and development projects is greater given more complex commercial opportunities – defined as a greater number of different potential applications for a project’s anticipated results – for their innovations. The effects on the probability of outside finance found for other factors are consistent with the earlier findings in the literature about innovative entrepreneurial firms.     

Convergence in International Unionism, etc. The Case of Canada and the USA

Industrial relations systems differ across countries, yet their outputs converge. Canada and the USA are a striking example. Over the past two decades, private and public membership and density, employer opposition, and bargaining have converged. These findings contradict the conventional wisdom and invalidate the recommendation that the USA emulate Canadian policy.     

Understanding Urban Public Space in a Leisure Context

For many people, the city is a landscape of everyday life. In cities, public spaces serve as venues for social interaction, sociability, conviviality, and the enactment of community. Despite their relevance to community life, however, urban spaces remain underexamined in the leisure literature. If researchers seek to understand leisure in the context of everyday experiences, they must also consider the spatial perspective in which leisure activities are pursued. In this research reflection, we argue that urban public spaces and some private spaces are fundamentally leisure settings that warrant greater research attention. We propose to broaden the conceptual understanding of what constitutes urban public space by outlining four categories of urban space based on ownership and accessibility.     

Good governance in protected areas: an evaluation of stakeholders’ perceptions in British Columbia and Ontario Provincial Parks

As government funding is reduced and tourism-based fees are increasingly used to fund protected area operations, two options are often used for management: transfer of tourism services to the private sector or operation of tourism services by a government agency that functions like a corporation. This paper reports stakeholders’ views concerning governance for two prominent, but different, management models for protected areas’ tourism services in Canada. British Columbia Provincial Parks uses profit-making companies to deliver park services; Ontario Provincial Parks uses the parastatal approach, where park staff members provide most services directly. Surveys of five key stakeholder groups (park staff, visitors, contractors working in park, nearby residents and NGOs with an interest in parks) provided higher rankings of perceptions of governance criteria closer to good governance for the Ontario approach, with important differences found between some groups and amongst some criteria in both park systems. This research suggests that the parastatal model is perceived as superior by important stakeholder groups, using the lens of standard governance criteria, compared to the outsourcing model that uses profit-making companies to provide park tourism services. This finding has implications globally where governments seek to shift park funding from government towards tourism fees and charges.