Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.     

Changing Productive Relations,Linkage Effects,and Industrialization

This paper develops a multi-sector endogenous innovation model that is able to take changing productive relations among sectors into account. It is shown that while productivity and demand shocks do not induce any changes in productive relations and linkage effects, shocks in the productivity of R&D increase both backward and forward linkages. Key sectors are characterized as having high forward and backward linkages, which are consistent with the definition of key sectors in the existing empirical studies. However, vertical specialization generates not only sectors with high backward and low forward linkages, but also sectors with low backward and high forward linkages. As a consequence of this vertical specialization, the latter sectors become key sectors, in the sense that they have significant effects on business fluctuations. This implies that general-purpose technology sectors emerge, and sector-specific policies for these sectors play a critical role in economic development and growth.     

Micro Price Dynamics during Japan's Lost Decades

We study micro price dynamics and their macroeconomic implications using daily scanner data from 1988 to 2013. We provide five facts. First, posted prices in Japan are ten times as flexible as those in the US scanner data. Second, regular prices are almost as flexible as those in the USA and Euro area. Third, the heterogeneity of frequency and size of price change across products is sizable and maintained throughout the sample period. Fourth, during Japan's lost decades, temporary sales have played an increasingly important role in households' consumption expenditure. Fifth, the frequency of upward regular price revisions and the frequency of sales are significantly correlated with the macroeconomic environment, in particular indicators associated with a labor market, while other components of price changes are not.     

ESTIMATES OF INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT BY INDUSTRY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN JAPAN

In estimating intangible investment in Japan at the industry level, we find a high intangible investment/gross value added ratio in the information technology (IT) sector and negative growth rates in intangible capital in 13 industries over the decade from 2000. When we examine the impacts of intangible investment on total factor productivity growth, we find a significant and positive effect on total factor productivity growth in the market economy. In a revised estimation that considers intertemporal knowledge spillovers, the estimated rate of return on intangibles in the IT sector is quite high after the IT revolution. The results imply that intangible assets have been underinvested in the IT sector.     

Applications of Gram–Charlier expansion and bond moments for pricing of interest rates and credit risk

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the powerful and flexible applicability of the Gram–Charlier expansion to pricing of a wide variety of interest rate related products involving interest rate risk and credit risk. In this paper, we develop easily implemented approximations of the prices of several derivatives; swaptions, CMS, CMS options, and vulnerable options. Associated with the default risk, a survival contingent forward measure is constructed.     

Institutional elasticity as a significant driver of IT functionality development

Institutions drive innovation and stimulate broad diffusion. Not surprisingly, national systems of innovation are influenced by their institutional flexibility in response to changing market conditions. As nations move from industrial to information-based societies, a key factor governing institutional “elasticity” is how institutions integrate information technology (IT). Since IT functionality is intimately connected with institutional dynamics, unlike simple manufactured products such as refrigerators, IT's specific functionality is formed through dynamic interaction with institutional systems. Consequently, institutional elasticity is a critical factor in the functionality of IT and its subsequent self-propagating behavior.This paper analyzes the mechanism of IT functionality development, with special attention to the interaction of the technology with institutional systems.     

Are Depositors Aware of the Governance of their Banks?1

In the discussion of corporate governance from the standpoint of economists, it is common for economists to pay more attention to the stockholders of a corporation (as stakeholders) than to the creditors. However, the behaviors of depositors as creditors should not be neglected in the management of banking institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze statistically the decision factors of depositors in opening an account at a particular bank with respect to corporate governance variables. My result shows that depositors with risk aversion consider banks well managed based on the following: a lower rate of external auditors, a longer time of service by the bank’s president, and the existence of a simultaneous promotion system of the bank’s president and chairperson.     

Ministerial Weights and Government Formation: Estimation Using a Bargaining Model

This article proposes a method to estimate relative ministerialweights in parliamentary democracies. Specifically, we presenta bargaining model of government formation and estimate structuralparameters of the model using data for (i) who the formateursare, (ii) what each party's voting weight is, and (iii) whatministerial seats each party obtains. We also measure the effectsof voting weights and formateur advantage on bargaining results.We apply our proposed method to the case of Japan. Our estimationresults show that political players value pork-related posts(such as the Minister of Construction) much more than prestigiousones (such as the Minister of Foreign Affairs). We also findthat there is a significant formateur advantage, whereas votingweights do not have a significant scale effect, which is consistentwith the findings for European democracies.     

THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY AND NONTECHNOLOGY SHOCKS IN BUSINESS CYCLES*

This article proposes a method to identify technology and nontechnology shocks that permanently affect labor productivity and applies this method to data for the G7 countries. In most cases, whereas technology improvements have negative or weak effects on hours worked, positive permanent nontechnology shocks are expansionary. Permanent nontechnology shocks play an important role in business cycles, particularly in the United States and Japan, and account for 71% of a large reduction in Japan's detrended output from 1991 to 2002. Credit conditions are likely to be an important driver of variations in permanent nontechnology shocks.