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21.
Stephen H Schneider B. L. Turner Holly Morehouse Garriga 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(2):165-185
Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods. 相似文献
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Decline in electoral participation is a feature of many Western democracies. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between trade union membership and political participation. Workplace authority structures, trade union membership and union presence have been identified as important influences on electoral participation. Based on a survey of employees in 15 member states of the European Union, we test for a relationship between political participation, union membership and union workplace presence. The independent effect of trade union membership on political participation was found to be both significant and positive and is associated with higher levels of political activism and electoral participation. Furthermore, an institutional context that facilitates high levels of union density seems likely to have an overall positive effect on citizen participation. 相似文献
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Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper shows that, in a bilateral relationship where a foreign supplier has to make a relationship-specific investment but cannot enforce a complete contract, the standard hold-up problem of underinvestment is aggravated when trade incurs a tariff. In this context, we identify two new channels through which trade liberalization enhances international trade. First, lower tariffs increase the incentives of foreign suppliers to undertake cost-reducing investments. Second, lower tariffs may prompt vertical multinational integration. These indirect effects imply that responses of trade volumes to trade liberalization are greater than standard trade models suggest and help explain current trends toward foreign outsourcing and intra-firm trade. 相似文献
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JA. Clougherty 《Contemporary economic policy》2000,18(3):304-314
The six largest U.S. airlines announced in the beginning of 1998 the formation of three domestic alliances, but the size and scope of these alliances spurred significant public interest concerns. GAO analysis suggests a rough equivalence between the domestic costs and benefits of alliances, yet the international competitive effects have not been considered. I argue that the national welfare merits of domestic airline alliances turn on positive international competitive effects. Empirical tests - run on comprehensive panel data covering the international airline markets among 21 nations over the 1983–1992 period - support domestic market concentration resulting in strategic international gains; hence, domestic airline alliances likely improve national welfare. 相似文献
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Beryl Turner 《Land use policy》1986,3(4)
Dambos are seasonally waterlogged areas found in the headwater zones of drainage systems or alongside streams. Their importance lies in the fact that they are widespread, and can provide grazing in the dry season as well as being moist enough to grow dry season crops without irrigation. In addition, it may be possible to use them in small-scale irrigation schemes. The author feels that their value in savanna areas is severely underrated. 相似文献
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Many researchers have suggested that meeting time, scope, and budget goals, sometimes called ‘project efficiency,’ is not the comprehensive measure of project success. Broader measures of success have been recommended; however, to date, nobody has determined empirically the relationship between efficiency and overall success or indeed shown whether efficiency is important at all to overall project success. Our aim in this article is to correct that omission. Through a survey of 1,386 projects we have shown that project efficiency correlates moderately strongly to overall project success (correlation of 0.6 and R2 of 0.36). Efficiency is shown through analysis to be neither the only aspect of project success nor an aspect of project success that can be ignored. 相似文献