Strategy in research design and hypothesis testing

The efficiency of a research design may be measured in terms of the degree to which knowledge is enhanced within given resource constraints. Thus, two different types of research design, even though they contain the same number of expected observations, may differ considerably in the amount of information provided. An example is the number N of 32 observations obtained with an analysis of variance witheither 2 factors, 2 levels per factor and a replication of 8or 4 factors, 4 levels per factor and a replication of 2. We analyze and compare the relative efficiencies of regression and variance analysis models and their implications to research strategy development. Three major considerations are evaluated: (1) short versus long time horizon (interval until effects of a decision are realized), (2) small versus large cost of erroneous rejection of the Null Hypothesis and (3) gross versus refined stage of development of the research study. A set of general guidelines towards improved designs is developed.     

Characteristics of agricultural input package users in communal clubs serviced by Acat in KwaZulu: A note

Characteristics of communal club members who use input packages are studied using a survey of communal clubs serviced by Africa Co‐operative Action Trust (Acat) in KwaZulu during 1989. Discriminant analysis shows that full input package adopters tend to belong to older clubs, have less formal savings and receive more visits each year from KwaZulu Department of Agriculture (KDA) extension officers. They also have a greater proportion of land under sugar‐cane, larger farm sizes and a higher rand monetary value of livestock.

Members of older clubs benefit from greater club experience in ordering inputs and liquidity for securing discounts on bulk orders. Clubs also enable scarce KDA extension manpower resources to be used more effectively by focusing extension efforts on groups rather than individual farmers. Sugar‐cane production probably indicates member willingness to innovate and the availability of funds to buy complete input packages for other crops. Increased access to land promotes input package adoption which can raise agricultural productivity. Development of institutional arrangements for a land rental market in KwaZulu should be considered. Higher monetary values of livestock reflect Increased ability to bear risk associated with technology adoption and that adopters have the means to purchase input packages     

The product elimination function

Historically, major consideration given to product management has focused on research and development or the introductory stage of the product life cycle. The authors present an empirical study delineating the variables to be considered in the product elimination process. More specifically, the elimination process is evaluated under a situation of poor product performance despite a generally viable market. The basic objectives of the study were: to determine the significant variables in the product elimination process of the Small Appliance Industry; to determine the relative importance of the variables; to examine the interaction among variables. The data obtained through personal structured questionnaire interviews were analyzed and provided a ranking of twenty-six variables relevant to the elimination process. Moreover, the Johnson's Hierarchical Clustering Schemes was applied to determine the interaction among variables. The results indicate that profitability and financial variables are most significant in the elimination decision-process. Second, the primary clusters of importance are concerned with market share, market growth rate, consumer awareness, and competitive action.     

Reduced Form Auctions Revisited

This note uses the Theorem of the Alternative to prove new results on the implementability of general, asymmetric auctions, and to provide simpler proofs of known results for symmetric auctions. The tradeoff is that type spaces are taken to be finite.     

Robustness to the unavailability of data in block designs

We present general results for finding or boundingt _maxB , the maximum number of arbitrary whole blocks of observations which can be removed from a block design, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable. The block sizes may be larger than the number of treatments. The results are applied to BBDs, reinforced BIBDs and BBDs, BTIBDs, and a series of variance balanced incomplete block designs with two block sizes. Also given for most of these designs, are results fort _max, the maximum number of arbitrary, scattered observations that can become unavailable, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable.The work was undertaken while Dr. Whittinghill was visiting Ohio State University, and supported by a grant from the Natural Sciences Division, Colby College, Waterville, Maine.     

Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.