Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters

This paper reconsiders a block bootstrap procedure for Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of GARCH models, based on the resampling of the likelihood function, as proposed by Gonçalves and White [2004. Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 119, 199–219]. First, we provide necessary conditions and sufficient conditions, in terms of moments of the innovation process, for the existence of the Edgeworth expansion of the GARCH(1,1) estimator, up to the k$k$-th term. Second, we provide sufficient conditions for higher order refinements for equally tailed and symmetric test statistics. In particular, the bootstrap estimator based on resampling the likelihood has the same higher order improvements in terms of error in the rejection probabilities as those in Andrews [2002. Higher-order improvements of a computationally attractive k$k$-step bootstrap for extremum estimators. Econometrica 70, 119–162].     

International market links and volatility transmission

This paper gauges volatility transmission between stock markets by testing conditional independence of their volatility measures. In particular, we check whether the conditional density of the volatility changes if we further condition on the volatility of another market. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate the conditional densities and model-free realized measures of volatility, allowing for both microstructure noise and jumps. We establish the asymptotic normality of the test statistic as well as the first-order validity of the bootstrap analog. Finally, we uncover significant volatility spillovers between the stock markets in China, Japan, UK and US.     

Mean–variance dominant trading strategies

The paper examines the relative importance of ten anomaly-based trading strategies. We employ Mean Variance spanning methodologies in a classical unconditional setting and a novel conditional setting. Fixed-weight optimal portfolios stemming from the unconditional methodology indicate that all the strategies are needed to enhance the mean–variance tradeoff. This conclusion is completely reversed when we allow for time-varying portfolio weights as a nonlinear function of lagged economic indicators. The overall results suggest that diversified anomaly-based holdings are of limited benefit to sophisticated investors who employ dynamic trading strategies.     

Explaining regional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper analyses the determinants and the evolution of income disparities across regions within Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over 1991–2011. We add to the literature in different ways. First, we adapt the categories that Rodriguez‐Pose used for studying convergence among old EU members to CEECs regions. This allows us to assess the relevance of geo‐sectoral groups (urban areas, old industrialized areas and peripheral areas) for newcomer regions. Second, we introduce a new category, that of ‘successful Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)‐based restructuring’ in order to capture regions that, often through considerable FDI, manage to reconvert their old industrial base. We then analyze whether this group helps understand catching‐up/falling behind processes in CEECs. We test the relevance of these groups by means of both non‐parametric and spatial regression analyses. We find that they help explain the increase in within‐countries’ regional disparities especially after the turn of the century.     

Riding the yield curve: a spanning analysis

The average return on long-term bonds exceeds the return on short-term bills by a large amount over short investment horizons. A riding-the-yield-curve investment strategy takes advantage of the higher returns on longer term bonds. This strategy involves the purchase of bonds with maturities longer than the investment horizon and the sale of these bonds, before they mature, at the end of the investment horizon. Most of the literature that evaluates this strategy compares only ex post average returns or Sharpe ratios. In this paper, we use spanning tests to provide formal statistical evidence on the benefits of investing in long bonds when the investment horizon is short. The results for both the United States and Canada indicate that an investor with a short horizon is better off investing in short-term debt instruments than long-term bonds.     

Does family ownership structure affect investment-cash flow sensitivity? Evidence from Italian SMEs

The aim of this article is to investigate whether family control, family management and family ownership concentration affect the investment-cash flow sensitivity of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). By analysing a sample of Italian SMEs for the period 2004–2013, I find that family-owned businesses are significantly associated with higher investment-cash flow dependence. This relation, however, is found to be driven by two distinct factors: (i) the presence of a highly concentrated family ownership (ownership concentration channel) and (ii) the active involvement of the family in the business (family management channel).     

A model for R&D performance measurement

R&D activities are increasingly costly and risky and, as a consequence, measuring their performance and contribution to value becomes critical. This paper illustrates a formal model for measuring R&D performance, based upon a balanced and synthetic evaluation of quantitative indicators from five different perspectives of performance: financial, customer, innovation and learning, internal business, alliances, and networks. The model is built in coherence with the suggestions coming from the theory of measurement in soft systems, which gives relevant guidelines for ensuring validity, objectivity and inter-subjectivity of the model. Then, an application in a real R&D setting is described, which helps to understand the model and to enlighten its main advantages and limits.     

Assessing Macroprudential Policies: Case of South Korea*

In this paper, we develop methods for assessing the sensitivity of capital flows to global financial conditions. We use these methods to assess the impact of macroprudential policies introduced by South Korea in 2010. Relative to a comparison group of countries, we find that the sensitivity of capital flows into South Korea to global conditions decreased in the period following the introduction of macroprudential policies.