The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Role of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: An Exercise in ‘Managing Fictional Expectations’

Negotiations between the world's two largest trading partners, the European Union (EU) and the USA, on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have been ongoing since July 2013. Anticipating the controversy the agreement has sparked, EU trade policy-makers in the European Commission have put considerable effort into discursively framing the agreement on their terms. Drawing on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the agreement's likely impact, the central claim has been that the TTIP promises to deliver much-needed ‘growth and jobs’ without stretching the public purse at a time of austerity. Our main argument in this article, drawing on the insights of the economic sociologist Jens Beckert, is that these CGE models – and the figures they have produced – represent an important exercise in ‘managing of fictional expectations’. The models make overly optimistic predictions about the ability of the EU and the USA to eliminate regulatory barriers to trade – which are unlikely to be realised in the face of considerable political opposition – and also downplay the potential deregulatory impact of an agreement. Rather than act as a reliable guide to future outcomes, we thus show that these models serve the pro-liberalisation agenda of the European Commission and other advocates of the TTIP.     

Differences in consumer price knowledge between Germany and Finland

Abstract

Price knowledge studies are a key to understanding behavioural pricing strategies. Consumer price knowledge is an ongoing concern in the literature. It is also generally acknowledged that price awareness is subject to cross-cultural differences. This is important because the retailer market is dominated by global players who use standardized marketing-mix instruments. However, there are no studies about price knowledge between countries. This study examines differences in price knowledge between German and Finnish consumers. The results show that Finnish consumers were able to give at least some price estimate for a product more often, but the estimates of German consumers were more accurate. Due to data limitations of our study more research is needed about cross-cultural price knowledge.     

Consumer price knowledge before and after the euro changeover

This article examines how the price knowledge of Finnish consumers has changed since the adoption of the euro. Our study measures price knowledge by comparing consumers’ price estimations with actual market prices at two points in time: before (October 2001) and after (March 2002) the changeover to the euro. Furthermore, we study potential differences between three different age groups. We approach the issue using four determinants, namely (1) response percentage (the percentage of respondents who were able to give a price estimate); (2) the difference between the median of the market prices and the median of the price evaluations; (3) the difference between the average of the market prices and the average of the price evaluations; and (4) the average of the absolute deviations between the average of product prices and consumer price evaluations. Our results indicate that, on average, consumers know the prices of grocery products quite well despite the prevailing dispersion of actual prices in the market. Price knowledge was found to be rather good both before and after the introduction of the euro. Nevertheless, the good price knowledge after the changeover was probably because consumers remembered the prices asked in the old currency and converted them to euros. The majority of respondents were able to give price estimates that were within the range of actual price dispersion in stores. The results also show some deterioration in price knowledge after the advent of the euro. There was variation between different age groups, and it seems that the introduction of the euro has affected various groups differently. Consumers aged 30–50 years knew prices best both before and after the euro, whereas the ability to estimate prices had declined most among consumers above 50 years after the euro changeover.     

Divergence and Convergence: New and Shifting Paradigms in Comparative Economic History

Our understanding of comparative economic development has been heightened by recent advances in the historical literature, particularly in the Great Divergence debate. Broad geographical comparisons, extended time periods, and the diverse and contested tools of measurement have all enriched the context of the comparative literature. Revisiting the discussion of causality – long-term preconditions versus shorter-term contingencies – provides additional insights into the volition of human actors, especially households and governments. It also helps to unpack the nature of ‘institutions’, a term that has suffered from bifurcation into good or bad and whose deeper components have been insufficiently analysed.