Modeling multivariate extreme events using self-exciting point processes

We propose a model that can capture the typical features of multivariate extreme events observed in financial time series, namely, clustering behaviors in magnitudes and arrival times of multivariate extreme events, and time-varying dependence. The model is developed within the framework of the peaks-over-threshold approach in extreme value theory and relies on a Poisson process with self-exciting intensity. We discuss the properties of the model, treat its estimation, and address testing its goodness-of-fit. The model is applied to the return data of two stock markets.     

The Construction of a Low‐Cost Airline Network – Facing Competition and Exploring New Markets

The paper investigates the construction of a low‐cost airline network by analyzing JetBlue Airways' entry decisions into non‐stop domestic US airport‐pair markets. Adopting duration models, we find that JetBlue consistently avoided concentrated airports and targeted concentrated routes; network economies also affected entry positively. For non‐stop entry into routes that have not been served directly before, our analysis reveals that the carrier focused on thicker routes and secondary airports. Non‐stop entry into existing non‐stop markets, however, shows that JetBlue concentrated on longer‐haul markets and avoided routes already operated by either other low‐cost carriers or network carriers under bankruptcy protection. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Services liberalization and productivity of manufacturing firms

Employing a unique database of Ukrainian firms in 2001–07, we use the external push for liberalization in the services sector as a source of exogenous variation to identify the effect of services liberalization on total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. The results indicate that a standard deviation increase in services liberalization within a firm is associated with a 9.2 percent increase in TFP. The effect is stronger for firms with high productivity, bringing about a reallocation of resources within an industry. Industry‐level results show that the effect of reallocation on industry productivity is almost as strong as the within‐firm effect. The dynamic interaction of services liberalization and TFP through the investment channel reinforces the effect. The effect is robust to different estimation methods and to different sub‐samples of the data. In particular, it is more pronounced for domestic and small firms.