Project Labor Agreements' Effect on School Construction Costs in Massachusetts

This paper investigates the impact of Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) on school construction cost in Massachusetts. Although simple models exhibit a large positive effect of PLAs on construction costs, such effects are absent from more completely specified models. Further investigation finds sufficient dissimilarity in schools built with and without PLAs that it is difficult to distinguish the cost effects of PLAs from the cost effects of factors that underlie the use of PLAs.     

The Power of Voice: Managerial Affective States and Future Firm Performance

We measure managerial affective states during earnings conference calls by analyzing conference call audio files using vocal emotion analysis software. We hypothesize and find that, when managers are scrutinized by analysts during conference calls, positive and negative affects displayed by managers are informative about the firm's financial future. Analysts do not incorporate this information when forecasting near‐term earnings. When making stock recommendation changes, however, analysts incorporate positive but not negative affect. This study presents new evidence that managerial vocal cues contain useful information about a firm's fundamentals, incremental to both quantitative earnings information and qualitative “soft” information conveyed by linguistic content.     

Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?

This paper analyzes the relation of stock volatility with real and nominal macroeconomic volatility, economic activity, financial leverage, and stock trading activity using monthly data from 1857 to 1987. An important fact, previously noted by Officer (1973) , is that stock return variability was unusually high during the 1929–1939 Great Depression. While aggregate leverage is significantly correlated with volatility, it explains a relatively small part of the movements in stock volatility. The amplitude of the fluctuations in aggregate stock volatility is difficult to explain using simple models of stock valuation, especially during the Great Depression.     

European Pension Systems: A Simulation Analysis

Pension systems in different countries vary widely in such aspects as the dependence of benefits on earlier labour income, the minimum permitted retirement age and limits on labour supply after retirement. This paper uses a simulation model of a rational, utility-maximising household facing the detailed pension provisions of eight European countries to study microeconomic distortions induced by the different rules and regulations. We examine in particular the impact on savings, labour supply, retirement age decisions and welfare. JEL classification: H55, J26, J65.     

Noisy Accounting Earnings Signals and Earnings Response Coefficients: The Case of Foreign Currency Accounting*

Abstract. This paper extends the growing literature on factors affecting cross-sectional and intertemporal variation in earnings response coefficients. It tests the empirical implications of recent theoretical work by Choi and Salamon (1989) and Holthausen and Verrecchia (1988), who model the degree of price adjustment associated with earnings announcements as a function of the amount of noise or garbling in the accounting earnings signal relative to valuation-relevant cash flows or dividends. The particular earnings measurements considered relate to U.S. multinational companies and to the differences in income determination under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 8 and SFAS No. 52. The study finds a modestly smaller relative price adjustment for a given amount of unexpected earnings for multinational firms than for nonmultinationals during the SFAS No. 8 period. This finding is consistent with multinationals producing “noisier” earnings signals during this time period. However, several indirect measures suggest that there was greater prior probability uncertainty associated with the future cash flows or dividends of the nonmultinational sample. Accordingly, this cannot be ruled out as a competing explanation for the observed differences in the market's response to earnings signals during the SFAS No. 8 period. Following the implementation of SFAS No. 52, the earnings response coefficient increased substantively for firms whose accounting for translation gains or losses was most affected by this standard. These results suggest that the earnings measurements produced under SFAS No. 52 were perceived by market participants to be of higher quality (less noisy) than those produced under SFAS No. 8. The framework and analysis in this paper hold promise for investigating the relative informativeness of earnings signals produced under alternative income determination rules. Résumé. Les auteurs apportent leur contribution personnelle aux publications de plus en plus nombreuses portant sur les facteurs qui touchent la variation transversale et temporelle des coefficients de réaction aux bénéfices. Ils vérifient les conséquences empiriques des travaux théoriques récents de Choi et Salamon (1989) et de Holthausen et Verrecchia (1988), qui modélisent le degré d'ajustement du cours des valeurs associé aux annonces de bénéfices comme étant fonction de la quantité de parasites ou de l'importance du brouillage dans le signal que constituent des bénéfices comptables par rapport aux flux monétaires ou aux dividendes pertinents à l'évaluation. Les mesures particulières des bénéfices auxquelles s'intéressent les auteurs sont celles de multinationales des États-Unis et font état de la variation des bénéfices, selon qu'ils sont évalués conformément au SFAS no 8 ou au SFAS no 52. Pour un montant donné de bénéfices inattendus, les auteurs constatent un ajustement relatif du cours des valeurs légèrement plus faible dans le cas des multinationales que dans celui des entreprises d'envergure plus modeste, au cours de la période d'application du SFAS no 8. Cette constatation est conforme à l'hypothèse voulant que les multinationales aient produit des indicateurs de bénéfices plus « brouillés » au cours de cette période. Toutefois, plusieurs mesures indirectes donnent à penser qu'il existait une incertitude plus grande quant à la probabilité a priori des flux monétaires ou des dividendes futurs dans l'échantillon des entreprises d'envergure plus modeste. Les auteurs ne peuvent donc écarter cette hypothèse à titre d'explication concurrente des différences observées dans la réaction du marché aux indicateurs de bénéfices, au cours de la période d'application du SFAS no 8. À la suite de l'instauration du SFAS no 52, le coefficient de réaction aux bénéfices a sensiblement augmenté dans le cas des entreprises dont la méthode comptable relative à la conversion des gains et des pertes était davantage touchée par cette norme. Ces résultats laissent croire que les mesures des bénéfices conformes au SFAS no 52 ont été perçues par les intéressés comme étant de plus grande qualité (c'est-à-dire moins brouillées) que les mesures conformes au SFAS no 8. Le cadre de référence et l'analyse contenus dans cet article sont prometteurs pour l'analyse de la qualité relative de l'information livrée par les indicateurs de bénéfices conformes à d'autres règles d'évaluation des bénéfices.     

A cross-cultural examination of the aetiology of attitudes towards money

Few cross-cultural studies have been conducted on the aetiology of attitudes toward money. Such research becomes more important with increased international economic exchange. This study compares attitudes towards money in Great Britain and the U.S.A. The purpose was to replicate Furnham's British study made in 1984 using the Money in the Past and Future Scale (MPFS) with an American sample to provide a cross-cultural comparison. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to determine which of the sociodemographic variables were related to respondent attitudes toward money in the past and future. Differences in the MPFS were found between the two countries. The origin or aetiology of these differences in attitudes towards money can be, in part, attributed to cultural differences that begin in the context of the family and are reinforced by society.     

Precautionary Saving and Endogenous Labor Supply with and without Intertemporal Expected Utility

We analyze precautionary saving behavior in a framework with labor and nonlabor income risks, an endogenous supply of labor, and a representation of preferences that disentangles attitudes toward risk, attitudes toward intertemporal substitution, and ordinal preferences for consumption and leisure. This preference structure allows us to disentangle and to describe in an intuitive way the different forces that determine precautionary saving “in the small” and “in the large.”