The role of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis

This paper develops the notion of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis. The authors first discuss the impact of lifetime indicators, such as customers' conceptual response to marketing activities, and then demonstrate how such lifetime cues can be embedded into the Pareto/NBD model. The authors theoretically analyze the implication of this additional behavioral indication on the model's predictions. In an illustrative example, they aim to establish an intuitive understanding of the effects of such information. Evidence from the cellular phone industry supports the relevance of this concept: The empirical study finds a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy in two independent holdout samples. The study concludes with a discussion of the managerial relevance of the proposed approach and opportunities for further research.     

Country of origin: A competitive advantage?

Country of origin has been identified in the literature as an important cue that might be used by global marketers to influence consumers' valuation of the brand. Its effect on consumer perceptions, affect and behavioral intentions has been widely documented, based on consumer surveys and laboratory experiments. Despite this empirical evidence, we argue that country of origin is only one extrinsic cue among many extrinsic and intrinsic cues available to the consumer in a real purchase situation. Furthermore, in real life, consumers are likely to engage in some level of information search, which would further dilute the country of origin effect in the marketplace. Based on these arguments, we conclude that country of origin might not necessarily lead to a competitive (dis)advantage in terms of a price premium or discount. For a sample of products, we show that the objective product quality varies significantly by country of origin, and that these differences are consistent with extant research on country of origin effects on consumers' perceptions. After controlling for quality differences across brands, we demonstrate that marketers from different countries charge prices that are justified by differences in product quality. Price premiums or discounts are therefore explained by differences in product quality rather than the image effect produced by the country of origin cue.     

Supplier development and the relationship life-cycle

The mainstream view holds that over time buyer–supplier relationships evolve through a number of phases. As a consequence, supplier development as a buyer–supplier relationship management practice should also be adapted to the life-cycle phase. Supplier development activities matching the buyer–supplier relationship life-cycle phase will lead to more favorable performance improvements. However, prior studies have neglected the relationship life-cycle perspective. This empirical study shows how the length of the buyer–supplier relationship can be used to improve the explanatory power of models investigating the performance outcomes of supplier development activities. The results show that supplier development is more effective in mature as opposed to initial and declining life-cycles phases.     

China's foreign trade marketing strategy: Problems and prospects 1

It has been seven years since the open door policy was officially instituted by the People's Republic of China. During this time, changes have taken place within Chinese society and China's dealings with the rest of the world. In this paper, the authors evaluate the problems and prospects for China's foreign trade marketing strategy. They make recommendations in five policy areas: (1) export promotion; (2) the mix of exports; (3) a systems approach to trade; (4) joint ventures stressing value‐added labour and (5) the role of assembly technology. Each strategy is identified and discussed in terms of its future prospects in the development of China's trade.     

Estimating the social cost of pesticide use: An assessment from acute poisoning in Brazil

The intensive use of pesticides in countries like Brazil has ignored structural and institutional shortfalls, such as the lack of workforce training for the new, difficult to implement technologies, and the institutional vulnerability of the environmental protection, health, and safety sectors. As a result we have “invisible” or social, environmental and health costs which end up being socialised with the farmer, in general, having no incentives to recognise and internalise them. This study is intended to review and develop this problem in the light of the Brazilian reality. To this end, we make use of an empirical exercise to illustrate estimation of the social cost associated with acute poisoning by pesticide using the PREVS/IBGE data (Harvest Forecast Research) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The results suggest that, for maize, the costs of acute poisoning could represent 64% of the benefits of using herbicides and insecticides, and, in the best of hypotheses, when some risk factors are eliminated, they may reach 8% of the benefits of the use of these products. Similarly, when we examine future scenarios for five and ten years, we find less encouraging results, as in ten years the costs of acute poisoning could reach around 85% of the benefit of using insecticides and herbicides for maize. However, there is the encouraging news that, if preventive measures were taken during this time, the gains would be considerable, about 6.5 times greater. We conclude that an assessment of the real benefits involved with pesticides in Brazil is required, principally in regard to the smallholder, where farmers need more training in the use — or even the elimination — of these hazardous substances. There are sustainable technological options available which are economically efficient, especially if we consider the social, environmental and health costs. In this context it is worth highlighting the role of regulatory measures as a mechanism which can reorient generation of negative external costs through the reduction of current incentives in the socialisation of private costs.     

Green Consumption under Misperceived Prices: An Application to Active Transportation

We propose a consumption model that captures the impact that perceived price ambiguities may have upon decision‐making in green markets in general and in active transportation markets in particular. The basic intuition for the model is that a consumer who may be misperceiving the price of the green good (the active transportation mode) would be willing to pay a positive amount from her income in the current period to resolve the misperception going forward. We posit that the basis for the price misperception in the active transportation context is misperception of the relative risks involved in taking that mode. The compensating variation that aligns perceived and objective risk is derived. We show how raising green consumption via price misperception correction can be superior to traditional economic policy instruments. The results shed light on the more general family of situations in which agents may consistently misperceive aspects of the decision environment.     

Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models

Model specification for state space models is a difficult task as one has to decide which components to include in the model and to specify whether these components are fixed or time-varying. To this aim a new model space MCMC method is developed in this paper. It is based on extending the Bayesian variable selection approach which is usually applied to variable selection in regression models to state space models. For non-Gaussian state space models stochastic model search MCMC makes use of auxiliary mixture sampling. We focus on structural time series models including seasonal components, trend or intervention. The method is applied to various well-known time series.     

Research Productivity in Business Economics: The Case of Marketing

Abstract. The German Economic Review ( GER ) recently published a paper by Fabel, Hein and Hofmeister about research productivity in Austrian, German and Swiss universities. The authors derive the rankings of institutions and subject areas by analyzing an impressive and comprehensive dataset, which captures the research output of business administration departments. While these rankings might hold at an aggregate level, they lack face validity at a subject-specific level. This lack of validity is demonstrated in the case of marketing by analyzing the research output of the top-ranked institutions in top-ranked journals. A number of proposals to overcome these kinds of problems are provided.     

Finite Sample Correction Factors for Panel Cointegration Tests*

In this paper we present finite T mean and variance correction factors and corresponding response surface regressions for the panel cointegration tests presented in Pedroni (1999, 2004) , Westerlund (2005) , Larsson et al. (2001) and Breitung (2005) . For the single equation tests, we consider up to 12 regressors and for the system tests vector autoregression dimensions up to 12 variables. All commonly used specifications for the deterministic components are considered. The sample sizes considered are T ∈ {10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,200,500}.