The reluctant Hong Kong consumer: purchasing travel online

Hong Kong consumers have embraced the web but appear reluctant to buy airline tickets online, suggesting that perceptions of risk outweigh perceived convenience. In this study we identify that both risk and convenience factors are associated strongly with willingness to purchase, particularly privacy, security and poor customer service, time savings, site usability and information provision. We identify further that the experienced shopper is only moderately satisfied and that satisfaction appears to be associated strongly with willingness to make further purchases. Overall, findings suggest that although consumers recognize a number of benefits, there is deep‐rooted resistance to buying this particular product online. The explanation may lie in a combination of the physical density of the Hong Kong market, love of the whole shopping experience and a desire to minimize risk. We conclude that to tempt consumers online airlines and agents must target the Hong Kong market with a clear value proposition which includes user‐friendly sites, streamlined payment procedures, on‐ and offline customer support, price‐related promotions and tailored offline services which reinforce online offerings.     

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY OF INFLATION RATES WITH COVARIATES

This paper distinguishes between the stationarity and nonstationarity of inflation in 18 OECD countries through several unit root tests with covariates. These covariate tests are more powerful than the conventional ones through correlated covariates. Both unit root and stationarity null hypotheses are tested in this study. Our empirical results indicate that the efficient univariate unit root tests fail to reject the unit‐root hypothesis for 15 countries, whereas the covariate tests provide strong evidence in support of mean reversion in inflation for almost all countries. Overall, the findings unveil new evidence in favor of stationarity in international inflation. Policy implications on the empirical results are provided as well.     

The impact of sovereign risk on bond duration: Evidence from Asian sovereign bond markets

This paper examines the effect of sovereign risk on bond duration. We compare the sovereign risk-adjusted duration for U.S. dollar-denominated Asian sovereign bonds with their Macaulay duration for both investment grade bonds and speculative grade bonds. We find that the sovereign risk-adjusted duration is significantly shorter than its Macaulay counterpart for all bonds, regardless of their bond rating and their maturity. Further, the “shortening” effect of sovereign risk on duration gets stronger as bond rating deteriorates and in recessionary conditions. Our findings provide strong support for the importance of adjusting for sovereign risk when bond portfolio managers apply the popular duration measure to hedge interest rate risk.     

Urbanization as A Process of State Building: Local Governance Reforms in China

Existing scholarship suggests that local transformation in reform‐era China has been a process of decentralization of state power driving extractive local governments to pursue economic growth through rapacious land appropriation and producing many miserable landless villagers. This study puts forward an alternative perspective by arguing that local governance reforms in China to advance urban development should also be interpreted as a process of state building, whereby local government reshaped its governance strategy so as to mitigate potential social unrest and strengthen its political legitimacy in governing rapidly urbanizing areas. Based on intensive fieldwork in a periurban district in southern China, this research examines how the local state has heightened its control over urbanizing villages through its day‐to‐day governance practices and the pursuit of a complex policy agenda comprising social welfare provision, shareholding reforms and intervention in grassroots politics. The findings of this study shed new light on understanding local state transformation in periurban China and on explaining why the country still maintains tremendous urban growth despite incessant land disputes and numerous social tensions at different localities.     

Information Role of U.S. Futures Trading in a Global Financial Market

Using a bivariate, asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, we examine the patterns of information flows for three financial futures contracts that are dual‐listed on U.S. and Asian markets (i.e., Nikkei 225 Index, Eurodollar, and dollar–yen currency futures). The results indicate that the U.S. market plays a leading role in terms of pricing‐information transmission across markets. In terms of volatility spillover across markets, however, foreign markets seem to play a similar role (e.g., Nikkei Index futures) or even a more significant role than the United States (e.g., Eurodollar futures in Singapore and dollar–yen currency futures in Japan). © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1071–1090, 2001     

Research in managerial accounting: Learning from others' experiences

The purpose of this paper is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of three research methods employed in managerial accounting: experimental, survey and field research. We do this by drawing on the three papers published in this issue of the Journal. These three papers provide the reader with a 'behind the scenes' exposé on the problems, choices and decisions confronted by the researcher during the method phase of the empirical study. The complexities associated with method are rarely reported in published papers nor is there any explanation of why effort is devoted to particular methodological issues. It is, however, important for the novice researcher to recognise these choices and problems, both when selecting a particular method, and in designing a study. We attempt to critique these papers in terms of choice of method and also the extent to which each of the studies satisfies the three 'maxims' of scientific method, namely, construct validity, internal validity and external validity. Our review demonstrates the trade-offs that are necessarily made when designing a research study. There are, however, ways in which the effects of these trade-offs can be minimised and we provide guidance as to how the study design might be improved to achieve this.     

Moonlighting: public service and private practice

We study job incentives in moonlighting, when public‐service physicians may refer patients to their private practices. Some doctors in the public system are dedicated, and behave sincerely, but others—the moonlighters—are utility maximizers. Allowing moonlighting always enhances aggregate consumer welfare, but equilibrium public‐care quality may increase or decrease; if quality increases, moonlighting improves each consumer's expected utility. Unregulated moonlighting may reduce consumer welfare as a result of adverse behavioral reactions, such as moonlighters shirking more and dedicated doctors abandoning their sincere behavior. Price regulation in the private market limits such adverse behaviors in the public system and improves consumer welfare.     

On the Cost of Adverse Selection in Individual Annuity Markets: Evidence From Singapore

New evidence is presented on the cost of adverse selection in individual annuity markets using Singapore data. The Singapore annuity market is an interesting setting to examine the cost of adverse selection for three reasons. First, unlike many Western countries, the Singapore government provides very limited public financial assistance for retirees. Second, while social security contributions mandated under the Central Provident Fund (CPF) result in a high forced savings rate, a large proportion of CPF savings, are used up for housing. Third, to ensure that retirees have sufficient funds to meet basic needs, individuals who reach age 55 are required to set aside a minimum amount of their CPF savings, which can be withdrawn at age 62. The CPF Board allows various options for investing the minimum sum, but the most attractive option is to purchase an annuity. The institutional setting in Singapore in effect provides insurers with a large captive market for annuities. It is conjectured that this should be reflected in a significantly lower cost of adverse selection for annuities sold in Singapore as compared with other countries. The results herein, using data for CPF‐approved insurers, are strongly consistent with this conjecture. On average, money's worth of annuities is higher than annuities sold to a similar age‐gender mix in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. Adverse selection accounts for less than 13 percent of the cost of longevity insurance compared to 30–50 per‐ cent documented in many previous studies. These results suggest that one way to resolve the adverse selection problem is to adopt a universal individual defined contribution pension scheme that mandates or provides strong incentives for retirees to purchase annuities.     

Wealth Effects of Private Equity Placements: Evidence from Singapore

We examine institutional characteristics and the wealth effects of private equity placements in Singapore. Our findings show that private placements in Singapore generally result in a negative wealth effect and a reduction in ownership concentration. We find that at high levels of ownership concentration, the relation between abnormal returns and changes in ownership concentration is significantly negative. We also show that the market reacts less favorably to placements in which management ownership falls below 50%, but more favorably to issues to single investors. We do not find evidence suggesting that our results are due to an information effect.     

Information Flows Between the U.S. and China Commodity Futures Trading

Using a bivariate GARCH model, we examine patterns of information flows for three commodity futures traded in both the developed U.S. market and the emerging China market (copper, soybeans and wheat). For copper and soybeans, the two commodities that are subject to less government regulation and fewer import restrictions in China, we find that the U.S. futures market plays a dominant role in transmitting information to the Chinese market, a result that confirms the importance of the U.S. role as a leader in the global financial market. For the heavily regulated and subsidized wheat commodity, our empirical results indicate that the U.S.-China futures markets are highly segmented in pricing, although information transmission via volatility spillover across markets is present.