开放式领导的挑战

李夏琳（Charlene Li）的《开放式领导》（Open Leademhip：How Social Technology Can Transform the Way You Lead）写得生动活泼,其中有不少行动和自查建议,方便领导们审查自己的组织在开放性方面到底做得如何。她与Josh Bernoff合著的《公众风潮》是2008年的畅销书（Groundswel：Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies）．     

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Proportional Transaction Costs in Finite Discrete Time

We prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which applies to Kabanov's modeling of foreign exchange markets under transaction costs. The financial market is described by a   d × d   matrix-valued stochastic process  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  specifying the mutual bid and ask prices between d assets. We introduce the notion of "robust no arbitrage," which is a version of the no-arbitrage concept, robust with respect to small changes of the bid-ask spreads of  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  . The main theorem states that the bid-ask process  (Π _t ) ^T _{t =0}  satisfies the robust no-arbitrage condition iff it admits a strictly consistent pricing system. This result extends the theorems of Harrison-Pliska and Kabanov-Stricker pertaining to the case of finite Ω, as well as the theorem of Dalang, Morton, and Willinger and Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker, pertaining to the case of general Ω. An example of a  5 × 5  -dimensional process  (Π _t )² _{t =0}  shows that, in this theorem, the robust no-arbitrage condition cannot be replaced by the so-called strict no-arbitrage condition, thus answering negatively a question raised by Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker.     

Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States

Review of World Economics - This paper addresses the trade and welfare implications of a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan. In 2019, the two countries signed a “stage...     

Discrimination: An interdisciplinary analysis

Discrimination on the basis of race, sex, national origin, etc., is often morally wrong. But should such behaviour be proscribed by legislation, and penalized by fines or jail sentences? This paper argues that such enactments are incompatible with the law of free association, and with the concept of economic liberty and civil rights.     

The probability of a “gross” violation of an efficient markets variance inequality

This note considers the small sample bias of the empirical variances of observed and ex-post-rational prices of financial assets, and shows that this can be much more severe than has previously been thought.     

A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.     

Hypercongestion in production correspondences: an empirical exploration

This empirical contribution reviews the rather limited existing literature measuring congestion in production. It first compares current ways to measure congestion using nonparametric specifications of technologies. In particular, it focuses on the magnitude and incidence of the congestion detected in empirical studies using traditional radial efficiency measures. Thereafter, it shows the limitations of this radial measurement and how alternative measurement schemes may reveal higher amounts of congestion. Then, the new, more general methodology of measuring S-congestion is presented. In particular, we first present a numerical example to illustrate the way the S-disposable technologies allow to capture more extreme forms of congestion by setting empirically determined upper bounds to the wasting of inputs. Then, an empirical illustration is presented based on an existing sample of data. A final section concludes.     

The predictive accuracy of credit ratings: Measurement and statistical inference

Credit ratings are ordinal predictions of the default risk of an obligor. The most commonly used measure for evaluating their predictive accuracy is the Accuracy Ratio, or equivalently, the area under the ROC curve. The disadvantages of these measures are that they treat default as a binary variable, thus neglecting the timing of default events, and they fail to use all of the information available from censored observations. We present an alternative measure which is related to the Accuracy Ratio but does not suffer from these drawbacks. As a second contribution, we study statistical inference for the Accuracy Ratio and the proposed measure in the case of multiple cohorts of obligors with overlapping lifetimes. We derive methods which use more sample information and lead to tests which are more powerful than alternatives which filter just the independent part of the dataset. All procedures are illustrated in the empirical section using a dataset of S&P Credit Ratings.