Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program: An Empirical Analysis for Coastal Properties

A perennial question about the National Flood Insurance Program is: how can participation be increased? An empirical analysis of individual‐level data reveals that in a sample of coastal areas the participation rate is 49 percent of eligible properties. Participation responsiveness to price is inelastic, but it has been increased by the mandatory purchase requirements for mortgage borrowers. Easing conditions for participation in the program would probably not reduce flood control measures, such as seawalls, which may degrade beach conditions and coastal ecosystems.     

Time-Based Management of the New Product Development Process

This study explored the problem of compressing new product development by focusing on the specific phases of the innovation process. These phases manifest significant qualitative differences that require attention for understanding the complexities of accelerating new product development. Based on data from 35 high-technology companies, Necmi Karagozoglu and Warren Brown identified several different acceleration methods. Results revealed unexpected and at times inconsistent insights than those reflected in the case study and anecdotally based literature, and implied also that some of the well documented approaches to successful new product development need to be replaced with their time-based versions.     

Economic and financial themes in Australian aged care

This contribution reflects the results of work for a review of aged care in Australia. Initial material covers the policy arrangements in place prior to the beginning of the Review in September 2002. The main feature of the contribution is a survey of economic and financial performance of aged care entities not hitherto attempted. Most attention is directed to labour costs in relation to total costs and earnings before interest and taxes. Cross-section analyses are based on institutional differences between providers of services with some operating as “for profit” entities but most are not reflecting their religious, community-based and charitable origins. Locational differences are also examined. The results show a very great disparity in experiences so that notions of the average experience across providers of services cannot be upheld. Differences between the top 10 percent of entities offering services and the bottom quartile are striking. The implications for development of new strategic approaches to policies are clear.     

The effectiveness of interest-rate futures contracts for hedging Japanese bonds of different credit quality and duration

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)-traded Japanese 10-year JGB futures contract to hedge portfolios of Japanese bonds of differing maturity and credit quality. The bond portfolios examined are Government, AAA-, and AA-rated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 20 years. Consistent with the recent literature, the study employs univariate methods for calculating hedge ratios based on levels, first differences, and percentage change of each series. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to determine the effectiveness of the calculated hedge ratios for each of the bond portfolios and to determine which approach to calculating hedge ratios is the most effective. The results show that this particular futures contract does provide a good hedge, particularly for those bond terms closest to the 10-year term of the contract. There is some evidence, although not strong, that JGBs are better hedged than AAA and AA bonds. Investors should take some caution when using this futures contract to hedge bond portfolios of different maturities and credit ratings.     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

Making judgment calls. The ultimate act of leadership

According to the traditional view, judgment is an event: You make a decision and then move on. Yet Tichy, of the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, and Bennis, of the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, found that good leadership judgment occurs not in a single moment but throughout a process. From their research into the complex phenomenon of leadership judgment, the authors also found that most important judgment calls reside in one of three domains: people, strategy, and crisis. Understanding the essence of leadership judgment is crucial. A leader's calls determine an organization's success or failure and deliver the verdict on his or her career. The first phase of the judgment process is preparation--identifying and framing the issue that demands a decision and aligning and mobilizing key stakeholders. Second is the call itself, And third is acting on the call, learning and adjusting along the way. Good leaders use a "story line"--an articulation of a company's identity, direction, and values--to inform their actions throughout the judgment process. Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, for instance, focused on a story line of Boeing as a world-class competitor and ethical leader to make a judgment call that launched the company's recovery from a string of ethical crises. Good leaders also take advantage of "redo loops" throughout the process, reconsidering the parameters of the decision, relabeling the problem, and redefining the goal in a way that more and more people can accept. Procter & Gamble's A.G. Lafley and Best Buy's Brad Anderson have both used redo loops--in preparation and execution, respectively--to strengthen not only support for their calls but also the outcomes.     

Behavioral biases of mutual fund investors

We examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample of US discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news, tax awareness, and fund-level familiarity bias, in addition to behavioral and demographic characteristics of earlier studies. Behaviorally biased investors typically make poor decisions about fund style and expenses, trading frequency, and timing, resulting in poor performance. Furthermore, trend chasing appears related to behavioral biases, rather than to rationally inferring managerial skill from past performance. Factor analysis suggests that biased investors often conform to stereotypes that can be characterized as Gambler, Smart, Overconfident, Narrow Framer, and Mature.