THE FORMATION OF CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN'S DEFLATION EXPERIENCE

Using a new data set, we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and expectations of households in Japan, focusing on the post-1995 deflationary era. Our first finding is that inflation expectations increase with age. Second, we find that measured inflation rates also increase with age, although age and inflation expectations continue to exhibit a positive correlation even after controlling for the household-level inflation rate. Analysis suggests that the correlation between age and inflation expectations is driven largely by the correlation between cohort and inflation expectations, which we interpret to represent the effect of historical inflation experience on inflation expectations.     

The Shapley Value of a Patent Licensing Game: the Asymptotic Equivalence to Non-cooperative Results

We consider a game in characteristic form played by firms and an outside patent holder of a cost-reducing innovation. The worth of a coalition of players is the total Cournot profit the coalition can guarantee to obtain when it operates an optimal number of its firms while the complement operates any number of its firms as to minimize the profit of the coalition. Only firms in a coalition with the patent holder are allowed to use the efficient technology. We prove that when the number of firms is large, the Shapley value of the patent holder approximates the payoff he obtains in the non-cooperative auction game traditionally studied in the literature.We thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments that significantly improved the paper. The second author is being partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Grant-in-Aid for 21 Century COE Program. He wishes to thank his advisor Yair Tauman and co-advisor Pradeep Dubey for their intellectual guidance, Akira Okada and Haruo Imai for their encouragement, and Shigeo Muto for his helpful comments to the first draft of this paper at the autumn meeting of the Japanese Economic Association in 2003.     

Quality-Adjusted Prices of Japanese Mobile Phone Handsets and Carriers’ Strategies

In order to discuss oligopolists’ strategic determination of quality-adjusted prices (QAPs), we conducted a hedonic regression analysis using adjacent periods and estimated the QAPs of mobile phone handsets sold in Japan between 2002 and mid-2007 for each carrier. We observed (1) a decreasing trend in QAP for each carrier, (2) a more rapid decrease in the QAPs of the two smaller carriers’ handsets relative to that of the largest carrier, and (3) a turnover cycle of the QAPs between the two smaller carriers. If both small carriers decrease their QAPs at roughly the same time, neither will significantly increase their subscriber share, which can generate a turnover cycle of QAPs.     

Economics of Environmental Management in a Spatially Heterogeneous River Basin

This article examines the allocative efficiency of water quality management activities to protect endangered salmonid species in a heterogeneous watershed in the Pacific Northwest. Using an integrated hydrological, biological, and economic modeling framework, the relative efficiency of alternative policy targets such as temperature reductions and enhanced fish populations is investigated. Results indicate that the heterogeneous nature of riparian conditions and stream morphology influence the choice of management activities. Localized effects of management efforts on temperature are important to achieve small temperature reductions. However, as the desired magnitude of temperature reductions increases, the cumulative (longitudinal) effects become more important, and management efforts in more distant reaches are more efficient than efforts nearer the point of monitoring. Finally, if the underlying objective is to increase fish populations, targeting conservation efforts based on physical criteria such as water temperatures or other total maximum daily load regulations may lead to substantial inefficiencies.     

Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP–VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The parameters are allowed to follow a random walk process and estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The empirical result reveals the time-varying structure of the Japanese economy and monetary policy during the period from 1981 to 2008. The marginal likelihoods of the TVP–VAR model and other fixed parameter VAR models are estimated for model comparison. The estimated marginal likelihoods indicate that the TVP–VAR model best fits the Japanese economic data.     

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS IN A MONETARY ECONOMY*

This article presents a microfounded model of money with a consumption and an investment market. We consider an economy in which only part of the investment returns can be pledged. A liquidity constraint arises when the pledgeable part of the returns are not enough to pay for investment costs. We show that when the liquidity constraint is binding, agents may make a cash downpayment and money can perform two roles—as a provider of liquidity services and exchange services. The liquidity constraint constitutes a channel though which underinvestment occurs even at low inflation rates.     

Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?

Japan has failed to escape from deflation despite an extraordinary monetary policy easing over the past 4 years. Monetary easing undoubtedly stimulated aggregate demand, leading to an improvement in the output gap. However, since the Phillips curve was almost flat, prices have hardly reacted at all. Against this background, the key question is why prices were so sticky. To examine this, we use sectoral price data for Japan and seven other countries including the USA, and use these data to compare the shape of the price change distribution across the eight countries. Our main finding is that Japan differs significantly from the other countries in that the mode of the distribution is very close to zero for Japan, while it is near 2% for other countries. This suggests that while in the USA and other countries the “default” is for firms to raise prices by about 2% each year, in Japan the default is that, as a result of prolonged deflation, firms keep their prices unchanged.