Hidden persistent disasters and asset prices

This study analyzes the effects of agents’ learning about hidden persistent economic disasters on asset prices. In this study, it is assumed that aggregate consumption follows a hidden Markov regime-switching process and a representative agent infers the current regime, normal regime, or disaster regime, sequentially from the realized path of the past consumption process. In this setting, the fluctuation in the agent’s posterior probabilities of the disaster regime augments the volatility of equity returns. By utilizing the stochastic differential utility, this study demonstrates that the current model can help resolve many asset pricing puzzles including the equity premium puzzle, equity volatility puzzle, and risk-free rate puzzle simultaneously. Further, the current model predicts the counter-cyclical pattern in the equity premium and equity-return volatility on the normal regime, although asset returns are negative and highly volatile during disasters. The study also demonstrates that, if the agent’s preferences are restricted to time-additive power utility, the consideration of hidden persistent disasters deepens the asset pricing puzzles.     

An exploration of the effect of doubt during disasters on equity premiums

In this note, we consider the effect on equity premiums of a representative household’s subjective expectations during disasters. In particular, we focus on the effect of doubt during disasters. We derive analytical solutions of equity premiums in the model of power utility function and conduct numerical exercises of the model of the recursive utility function. Our contribution is to demonstrate that doubt during disasters–even mild ones–generates high equity premiums.     

Agglomeration Economies and a Test for Optimal City Sizes in Japan

We estimate aggregate production functions for metrpolitan areas in Japan to derive the magnitudes of agglomeration economies. Using the estimates of agglomeration economies, we test if Japanese cities, in particular, Tokyo, are too large.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1996,10(4), pp. 379–398. Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan; Socio-Economic Research Center, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1-6-1 Ohtemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan; and Institute of Socio-Economic Planning, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan.     

An International Portfolio Optimization Model Hedged with Forward Currency Contracts

We will propose a new method for constructing an optimal portfolio in which the fund is allocated to assets and currencies of several countries. Traditionally, two or three stage method is adopted in this field. However, it neglects the risk associated with variations of the rate of return of individual assets and the exchange rate of currencies. Instead, the new method enables one to simultaneously determine the optimal amount of fund to be allocated to each asset and the amount of the forward contracts on currencies. The resulting optimization problem is apparently a nonconvex minimization problem due to the existence of product terms in the objective function. We will show, however, that a globally optimal solution can be calculated by a standard algorithm in an efficient way. Also we will demonstrate that the new method leads to a substantially better result using historical data of U.S., Japan and Germany.     

Nontraded inputs,the effective rate of protection and gross output changes

The applicability of ERP theory to models with nontraded inputs is analyzed. This results in a clarification and extension of the results on prediction of gross output changes, utilizing alternative definitions of the effective rate of protection that were made in earlier work by Corden, Ray, and Bhagwati and Srinivasan.     

Optimal Investment in Transportation Infrastructure When Middlemen Have Market Power: A Developing-Country Analysis

Transportation costs and buyer market power reduce prices and income received by farmers in developing countries. Transportation costs directly affect the marketing margin and also exacerbate market power by limiting farmers' access to buyers. This article develops a multistage spatial model to determine optimal investment in transportation improvements, taking account of impacts on marketing costs and competition. The beneficial impact of investments from farmers' perspective is mainly through enhanced competition, meaning significant under-investment may occur if this effect is ignored. However, the optimal investment depends on the relative importance of transportation costs; in some settings, transportation improvements reduce farm prices because buyers rationally over-compensate farmers for these costs.     

Aging,Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan*

We analyze the impact of population aging on Japan's household savings rate and on its public pension system and the impact of that system on Japan's household savings rate and obtain the following results: first, the age structure of Japan's population can explain the level of, and past and future trends in, its household savings rate; second, the rapid aging of Japan's population is causing Japan's household savings rate to decline and this decline can be expected to continue; third, the pay‐as‐you‐go nature of the public pension system, combined with rapid population aging, created considerable intergenerational inequities and increased the savings rates of cohorts born after 1965, which in turn slowed the decline in Japan's household savings rate; and fourth, the 2004 public pension reform alleviated the intergenerational inequities of Japan's public pension system somewhat but will in the long run exacerbate the downward trend in Japan's household savings rate.     

Selective Immigration and Ethnic Economic Achievement: Japanese Americans before World War II

This article examines the determinants of Japanese immigrant economic achievement in the continental United States before World War II. Japanese immigrants to the United States were a select group in terms of their occupational background and education relative to the Japanese population as a whole because of the restrictions imposed on Japanese immigration by both the Japanese and U.S. governments. Furthermore, the selective nature of Japanese immigration contributed to the economic achievement of Japanese Americans before World War II, when their occupational position underwent a dramatic improvement. This finding differs from the standard cultural explanation of ethnic economic achievement.