打造全新的菲利普斯石油公司

在全球石油业兼并浪潮的冲击下，菲利普斯公司不得不在一体化石油巨头与独立石油公司之间的“夹缝”中寻求生存和发展之路。近几年来，菲利斯审时度势、果断出击，灵活采取合资、兼并等方式进行了大规模的业务结构调整。出资70亿美元收购阿拉斯加油气资产使公司上游业务实力大增；收购美国最大的炼油和销售商之一托斯科公司将使其炼油业务的范围扩大，业务质量明显提升；与杜克能源公司合资经营创立杜克能源服务公司，天然气集输、加工和销售业务得到加强；与雪佛龙公司合资组建世界一流的化工生产企业，使其拥有了提升化工业务利润的规模和实力。上述调整使该公司的业务结构更趋合理，经营业绩明显提升。2000年公司利润增长了206％，净经营收入增长了250％，均创历史最好记录。     

山东经济——以世界为舞台

引言 山东,古称“负海而扼天下之吭”,是“天下制胜之地”,曾有“山东安而天下皆安矣”的说法。今天,在中国的经济板块中,山东以其实力也属“形胜之地”。刚刚过去的2002年,山东经济亮点频闪,最引人注目的,是山东经济在国际舞台中的上佳表现。经历了经济模式的转变、贸易壁垒的突围、“倾销战”的洗礼,可以说,和着世界的节拍舞蹈,山东越来越从容了。     

论柔性战略在中国邮政发展中的应用

文章阐述了柔性战略的含义和特征,阐述了中国邮政实施柔性战略的必要性,提出了邮政企业实行柔性战略管理的推进策略,以提高邮政的应变能力,适应市场的变化。     

A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.     

Syndicated Loan Announcements and Borrower Value

Announcements of syndication loans increase borrowers' shareholder wealth if they are revolving credit agreements but not if they are term loans. Share price responses to revolving credit announcements are positive and significant, whereas the wealth effect for term loans is negative and significant. The results show that announcements from both the financial press and commercial information providers can affect borrower share price reaction. Overall, single syndication announcements appear to be more newsworthy than multiple announcements reported in the financial press, and we find evidence of information leakage, post‐announcement drift, or both.     

平安——山东最亮的名片

--2003年,山东省共破获各类刑事案件16万余起,抓获各类刑事作案人员12万余名,居全国第三位;清除黑恶犯罪团伙1681个,居全国之首.破案率高出全国4个百分点,全省连续4年没有公安部挂牌督办的未破大案,没有发生影响恶劣的刑事案件和治安事故.     

投资资本权利扩张与管制的辩证法--FTAA投资规则的规范分析

文章对FTAA有关投资规则进行了规范分析,并在与NAFTA有关规定进行比较的基础上,对FTAA投资规则草案所反映的投资资本权利扩张和东道国对其的管制之间的博弈关系进行了思考.